The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 65 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
China blocks Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI platform Manus
“China has blocked Meta's two billion dollar acquisition of artificial intelligence platform Manus after regulators reviewed whether the deal violated Beijing's investment rules.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 1:26 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: MedV runs 800 fake doctor Facebook accounts to sell GLP-1s
“They are apparently running 800 fake doctor accounts on Facebook to sell compounded GLP ones. Shiel Monat verified that the accounts are not actually doctors.”
John Coogan Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 10:51 The Truth Behind the “Solo Founder Billion Dollar Company”
Assertion Supported
New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay over $900 million
“A New Mexico judge has ordered Meta to pay more than nine hundred million dollars And impose new restrictions on how minors in the state use Facebook and Instagram.”
John Coogan Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 14:59 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 18:48 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Novak: LA jury finds Meta and YouTube liable for algorithmic addiction
“Yesterday, a Los Angeles jury, both meta and YouTube liable Wah, wah. For a twenty-year-old woman's mental health crisis in a bellwether trial that treated platforms as, quote, defective products, and potentially marks the end to the absolute immunity nature o…”
Turner Novak Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 23:29 Arm’s $15B Chip Bet, Sanders & AOC vs Datacenters, Meta & YouTube Lose Trial | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reuters Reports Meta Planning Layoffs of 20% or More
“Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company. Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Meta seeks to offset AI infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought by AI assisted workers.”
Jordi Hays Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 28:58 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Karp's $17.2M jet spending dwarfs Meta and Palo Alto Networks CEOs
“Notably, this 17.2 figures more than double carp's executive aircraft expense in 2024 and appears elevated relative to peers with Meta CEO spending 1.8 million and Palo Alto Network CEO spending 2.4 million.”
Jordi Hays Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 13:58 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta patents AI system to simulate deceased users on video calls
“Meta has obtained a patent for an AI system that could simulate deceased users by analyzing their historical data, allowing the account to keep posting, messaging, and even making video calls in their behavioral style.”
Jordi Hays Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 19:29 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Wang: Scale AI's research team of 100 scientists is one-tenth competitors' size
“Our team is smaller and more talent dense than any of the other labs. The other labs are like 10 times bigger, and our team is about a hundred people of cracked AI scientists”
Alexander Wang Sep 20, 2025 ▶ 15:36 Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Andrew Yang and More - TBPN Top 5
Assertion Supported
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:06:11 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Meta is buying a 49 percent stake in Scale AI for $15B
“Meta is paying fifteen billion. I thought it was 1415, something like that for a 49% stake in scale AI that pays out investors and employees. CEO Alex Wang is leaving to join Meta and head up a super intelligence lab.”
John Coogan Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 2:43:38 Weekly Recap: Apple WWDC, Andrew Huberman, YC Demo Day, Intern Phone Assembly, $14B Meta x Scale
Assertion Supported
Kovacevich: FTC and DOJ divided Big Tech targets rather than subject matter
“What happened was about six years ago, the FTC and the Justice Department, they share responsibility for antitrust. They got together and they said, they basically struck a deal and they said, okay, FTC, you get Meta and Amazon and DOJ, you get Google and Appl…”
Adam Kovacevich Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 13:21 Behind the Scenes of the Google Antitrust Trial | Adam Kovacevich on TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Announced Meta Is Phasing Out Fact Checkers for Community Notes
“Mark Zuckerberg's announcement that he will be removing fact checkers from Meta, Properties and implementing an X-like community notes system”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 20:08 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is moving its trust and safety team to Texas
“He's like, oh, and by the way, we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas.”
John Coogan Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 1:19:06 How to WIN in 2025? (INSANE Predictions List)
Prediction Held up
Hays: Meta's MSL Will See More Exits Within Two Months
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”
Jordi Hays Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 10:32 North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Louisiana teachers received $50k bonuses from Meta data center tax revenue.
“In Richland parish, Louisiana, where Meta's building a large data center, teachers received a 50,000 dollar bonus this year because of the increased tax revenue from their investment there.”
John Coogan Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 8:10 Zuck’s AI Vision, Celebs Are Dating Private Equity Guys, AI Agent Hacks Gym | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Signed AI Pause Letter
“There's this open letter from a bunch of lab employees saying like, hey, maybe we should do a mutual pause. Maybe we should all slow down. And I think even some meta researchers signed that as well, but there's like a wide group from OpenAI, Anthropic, a bunch…”
John Coogan Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 15:05 U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing prediction market app
“Apparently, according to Bobby Allen over at NPR, meta considered buying Calci before it's developing its own prediction market app.”
Jordi Hays Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 17:51 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Leaked memo: Meta tracks billions in internal AI spend in 2026
“We've seen an exponential increase in AI usage, and we are tracking to spend billions on internal use alone in 2026. The memo said, at the same time, individuals and teams have limited visibility into and control over how they use AI. In twenty-twenty-seven, w…”
John Coogan Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 16:28 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta and Overview Energy plan to beam 1GW of space solar
“They're planning to beam up to one gigawatt of space solar power from orbit to Earth for around-the-clock power production.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 2:36 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Novak: Over 10,000 injury cases pending against social media platforms
“There are over 10,000 individual personal, personal injury cases, almost 800 school district claims, and 40 state level cases pending nationwide that are similar to KGM Versus Meta and YouTube.”
Turner Novak Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 25:40 Arm’s $15B Chip Bet, Sanders & AOC vs Datacenters, Meta & YouTube Lose Trial | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent for himself
“Mark Zuckerberg is building a CEO agent to help him do his job.”
Jordi Hays Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 25:44 SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver, OpenAI Hires Meta’s Top Ad Exec, Zuck Builds CEO Agent | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta is projected to spend $115B to $135B on AI CapEx
“Now they're gonna plot plow a hundred and thirty five billion, according to the wall street journal, New York times said one 15, but either way, it's like more than half of the revenues.”
John Coogan Jan 30, 2026 ▶ 15:59 Big Tech Earnings, Elon’s SpaceX–xAI Merge, Genie 3 | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reflection AI is in talks to raise $1B for open-source models
“It was reported yesterday by the misinformation that reflection, reflection the misinformation reported that reflection one-year-old startup we've had the CEO on before he's in talks to raise one billion to develop open source models to compete with deep sea m…”
Jordi Hays Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:01:36 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Prediction Held up
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Jordi Hays Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 34:58 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Poached Four Senior OpenAI Researchers For Meta AI
“Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg successfully recruited four senior researchers from the company to join Meta's super intelligence lab.”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:00:23 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta's presidential account unfollow issue was a server-side bug
“What happened was the unfollow demand was so high that the unfollow requests weren't going through on the server side. So then it looked like I unfollowed it. And then I was like, cool. I unfollowed it because it updated on the front end. It didn't update on t…”
John Coogan Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 1:12:55 Project Stargate, The T Word, Ramp Treasury, Audience Ad Reads, See You at Davos
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Promoted Joel Kaplan to Global Affairs President
“That executive's name was Joel Kaplan. Mark just gave him a promotion. He is now the company's president of global affairs and nobody at the company seems to care”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 31:45 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta Ended Its Internal DEI Program
“Meta ended its DEI program, and Mark appeared on Rogan to basically apologize for all the censorship.”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 32:01 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta's Orion prototype costs $10,000 with a two-hour battery life
“Meta announced this Orion prototype. It costs 10 K to produce right now per unit, and it has like a, like maybe a two hour battery life.”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 27:03 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Assertion Supported
LA jury awards $6 million in Meta and Google youth addiction case
“On March, 25th, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google slash YouTube negligent for designing platforms harmful to young people. A woman who said she became addicted to social media as a child was awarded 6000004.2 million against Meta and 1.8 million against…”
Jordi Hays Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 15:53 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Google Admitted Lacking Capacity to Meet Meta's AI Demand
“Because it was just within the last month that Google had said, like, hey, we don't have capacity. We don't have enough capacity for all of Meadow's demand for our models.”
Jordi Hays Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 18:38 Model Mayhem: OpenAI’s 5.6 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta explored vendor partnerships with prediction market providers
“The only reason, the reason I believe that is because I believe they had, Meta. Yeah. Like, was reaching out to the various prediction market providers to try to be potential, like, partners and or vendors.”
Jordi Hays Jul 1, 2026 ▶ 13:37 Rocket Lab Enters SpaceX Arena, Meta’s Prediction Market, America’s Tech Wishlist | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Generative UI is the ultimate bull case for Meta AR headsets
“Ben Thompson wrote a big bull case for the meta augmented reality headsets, not just Orion, but also the meta Ray-Ban displays today talking about as AI models get better on the fly UI generation with less Chrome, which is like the top bar and the bottom bar a…”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 29:32 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta Reels reached a $50 billion run rate in recent years.
“Reels went from zero to fifty billion of run rate in like a handful of years, right?”
Jordi Hays Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 14:15 Samsung’s $70B Chip Bet, Apple Doing Nothing But Winning AI, Bezos’ New Fund | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Ma: Nebius and Meta Agree to $27B AI Infrastructure Deal
“Nebius and Meta have agreed to a twenty seven billion dollar AI infrastructure pact, a deal. The talks are advanced to packed stage. A five-year deal, twenty-seven billion to supply AI infrastructure capacity to Meta.”
Jon Ma Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 27:53 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta signs multi-year AMD Instinct GPU deal for six gigawatts
“Meta has shaken hands with AMD. They're forming a pact today. We're announcing a multi-year agreement with AMD advanced micro devices to integrate their latest instinct GPUs into our global infrastructure with a pot approximately six gigawatts.”
John Coogan Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 25:21 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta outspends all competitors on virtual reality by an order of magnitude
“And they're still spending more on VR than anybody. By an order of magnitude.”
Palmer Luckey Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 19:31 Palmer Luckey: Why I Started My Own Bank
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Thinking Machines Retains Only Three of Six Original Founders
“The exits, coupled with fellow co-founder Andrew Tulloch's decampment to Meta last fall, leave Thinking Machines with just three of its original six founders.”
John Coogan Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 15:48 Kling AI reaches 12M MAU, China's aging tech worker crisis, drama at ThinkingMachine | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta hits $72B in capex and acquires AI startup Manus for $2B
“Meta's been ramping up AI spending on AI, pushing its capital expenditure to seventy-two billion last year with plans to accelerate that spending this year. It's also doled out offers worth tens of millions 1000 of millions of dollars to AI researchers and eng…”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:38 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta sold over two million pairs of AI Ray-Ban smart glasses
“The company's Ray-Ban smart glasses equipped with AI have also started to take off. The company sold more than two million pairs, And has delayed the rollout of its newest glasses in Europe as it struggled to keep up with demand in the U.S.”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:57 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: All 11 Meta Super Intelligence hires are foreign-educated immigrants
“Every single one of the 11 Meta, Meta Super Intelligence hires has an, is an immigrant who did their undergrad abroad. Ah, seven from China, one from India, one from Australia, one from UK, One from South Africa. Eight are PhDs or PhD dropouts in the US.”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:10:52 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is reportedly investing $5 billion for 4% of Luxottica
“Luxottica owns both Oakley and Ray-Ban and Meta is reportedly investing five billion dollars for a four percent stake.”
John Coogan Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 2:41 Weekly Recap: Elon's Starship Explodes, OpenAI's Defense Contract, Nvidia's Robots, We Test Cluely
Assertion Supported
Meta has spent approximately $80 billion on Reality Labs to date
“I think he's like spent eighty billion dollars so, so far on like reality labs.”
Mike Vernal Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 5:26 Why Patience Is the Secret to Building Iconic Companies | Mike Vernal on TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta and Luxottica re-upped exclusive 10-year partnership
“So they just re-upped, I think they have a ten-year deal, it's exclusive, and Luxottica is the, like, the sole hardware, like. Well, so they're completely vertically integrated, so they own Ray-Ban”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 19:33 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Assertion Supported
Meta releases beta for Muse Code, a terminal software engineering agent
“Releasing that Muse Code in beta today. It's a terminal coding agent that Takes on complete software engineering task powered by MuSpark 1.2, a coding agent, a coding focused model update.”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 29:57 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Qualcomm manufactures chips for Meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses
“Zaid, who heads the division of Qualcomm, responsible for making the chips that go into the meta the meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 15:53 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Isaac was ejected from federal court for wearing Meta Ray-Bans
“Actually, I did get kicked out of the courtroom for wearing the meta Ray-Bans.”
Mike Isaac May 1, 2026 ▶ 4:40 Inside the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk Courtroom
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