The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 76 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Meta hits $72B in capex and acquires AI startup Manus for $2B
“Meta's been ramping up AI spending on AI, pushing its capital expenditure to seventy-two billion last year with plans to accelerate that spending this year. It's also doled out offers worth tens of millions 1000 of millions of dollars to AI researchers and eng…”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:38 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Meta sold over two million pairs of AI Ray-Ban smart glasses
“The company's Ray-Ban smart glasses equipped with AI have also started to take off. The company sold more than two million pairs, And has delayed the rollout of its newest glasses in Europe as it struggled to keep up with demand in the U.S.”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:57 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: All 11 Meta Super Intelligence hires are foreign-educated immigrants
“Every single one of the 11 Meta, Meta Super Intelligence hires has an, is an immigrant who did their undergrad abroad. Ah, seven from China, one from India, one from Australia, one from UK, One from South Africa. Eight are PhDs or PhD dropouts in the US.”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:10:52 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is reportedly investing $5 billion for 4% of Luxottica
“Luxottica owns both Oakley and Ray-Ban and Meta is reportedly investing five billion dollars for a four percent stake.”
John Coogan Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 2:41 Weekly Recap: Elon's Starship Explodes, OpenAI's Defense Contract, Nvidia's Robots, We Test Cluely
Assertion Supported
Meta has spent approximately $80 billion on Reality Labs to date
“I think he's like spent eighty billion dollars so, so far on like reality labs.”
Mike Vernal Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 5:26 Why Patience Is the Secret to Building Iconic Companies | Mike Vernal on TBPN
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Microsoft, Google, and Meta will spend $230B combined on CapEx
“Microsoft is expected to top ninety billion in CapEx this calendar year. Google is spending seventy-five billion and Meta is spending sixty-five billion.”
John Coogan Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 36:57 The BEST Super Bowl Commercial (Saquon Barkley)
Assertion Partly supported
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Jordi Hays Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 1:42:45 What is the TRUMP BUBBLE? (ep11)
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta and Luxottica re-upped exclusive 10-year partnership
“So they just re-upped, I think they have a ten-year deal, it's exclusive, and Luxottica is the, like, the sole hardware, like. Well, so they're completely vertically integrated, so they own Ray-Ban”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 19:33 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Assertion Supported
Meta releases beta for Muse Code, a terminal software engineering agent
“Releasing that Muse Code in beta today. It's a terminal coding agent that Takes on complete software engineering task powered by MuSpark 1.2, a coding agent, a coding focused model update.”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 29:57 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Qualcomm manufactures chips for Meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses
“Zaid, who heads the division of Qualcomm, responsible for making the chips that go into the meta the meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 15:53 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Isaac was ejected from federal court for wearing Meta Ray-Bans
“Actually, I did get kicked out of the courtroom for wearing the meta Ray-Bans.”
Mike Isaac May 1, 2026 ▶ 4:40 Inside the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk Courtroom
Assertion Supported
Meta deploys 1GW of ultra-long duration battery storage with Noon Energy
“They're also deploying one gigawatt of ultra-long duration storage batteries with noon energy, so some exciting deals coming out. Of Menlo Park.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 2:42 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
OpenAI hires Meta's Dave Dugan as VP of Global Ad Solutions
“Dave Dugan, a former top advertising executive at Meta, is gonna lead sale, ad sales. Dugan, who announced earlier this month he was stepping down from his role as Vice President of Global Clients and Agencies at Meta, has been named Vice President of Global A…”
Jordi Hays Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 23:43 SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver, OpenAI Hires Meta’s Top Ad Exec, Zuck Builds CEO Agent | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Google earns $460 per US user annually, while Meta earns $250.
“Google makes. 460 dollars per user per year in the United States, mostly on ads. I didn't know that their ARPU was so high. Meta makes around 250.”
John Coogan Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 14:44 Samsung’s $70B Chip Bet, Apple Doing Nothing But Winning AI, Bezos’ New Fund | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Pershing Square reveals $2B stake in Meta
“Bill Ackman's Pershing Square revealed a major new stake in Meta, making up, up 10% of its portfolio, or about two billion.”
Jordi Hays Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 28:50 AI Isn’t Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral’s $2B Sweden bet | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Only 1% of European Users Pay for Ad-Free Facebook
“They all have the option to pay for Facebook, for ad free Facebook, and only one percent pay.”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 9:59 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: The Information reports Meta's Avocado model is its most capable internally
“According to the information, upcoming avocado model from Meta is referenced as the most capable model to date internally.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 26:23 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Only one percent of European users pay for ad-free Facebook
“One percent in Europe for Facebook, by the way. That's the stat. They all have the option to pay for Facebook, for ad free Facebook, and only one percent pay.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 10:52 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Assertion Supported
Meta lays off 1,500 metaverse staff while retaining 14,000 in Reality Labs
“Meta because they just laid off 1500 people in their metaverse division. Obviously, 1500 people is a ton. That's a lot of people. But they still have 14,000 people working on Reality Labs.”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 21:18 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is developing image and video AI model Mango
“Megan Borowski over at the Wall Street Journal has a scoop that Meta is in fact developing a new image and video focused AI model. Codename Mango.”
John Coogan Dec 20, 2025 ▶ 12:01 TBPN Year in Review
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta's Threads has crossed 400 million monthly active users
“Four is Threads, which apparently just crossed four hundred million monthly active users.”
Jordi Hays Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 2:54 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
Assertion Supported
Hays: Facebook's 2010-2011 Poaching Raid Forced Google To Raise Comp
“In 2011, in 2010 and 20 11 Zuck and Facebook went super aggressive poaching from Google. So Facebook had crossed half a billion users. They were, in that period of transitioning from a super scrappy startup. Yep. And they went heavy into Google. So they went a…”
Jordi Hays Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:03:45 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Depue: Meta dedicates a huge portion of its GPUs to Instagram recommendations
“Meta has a ton of GPUs. They just use for Instagram ads recommendations.”
Will Depue Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:08:31 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Assertion Supported
Snap's market cap equals Meta's $14B Scale AI deal
“Snaps market cap, exactly what meta just paid for a 50% stake in scale AI, fourteen billion.”
John Coogan Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 8:58 Weekly Recap: Apple WWDC, Andrew Huberman, YC Demo Day, Intern Phone Assembly, $14B Meta x Scale
Assertion Supported
Facebook's early secondary trading caused venture to adopt blanket transfer restrictions
“Once other venture companies saw this, they implemented basically blanket transfer restrictions. And that has been the default ever since.”
Christian Garrett Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 12:50 Christian Garrett (137 Ventures) on Investing and Markets
Assertion Supported
Temu and Shein's Share of Meta Ad Spend Has Already Peaked
“And so this quarter did turn out to be the peak of Timu and Sheen's share of Meta advertising around Under seven percent on Facebook and just under four percent on Instagram, and they're down to around four percent and two percent respectively now.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 18:20 The Truth About Chinese Manufacturing (De Minimis)
Assertion Supported
Instagram had roughly 860,000 daily active users when Facebook acquired it.
“So when Instagram was acquired estimated around 860,000. So less than a million. DAUs.”
Tyler Cosgrove Sep 6, 2025 ▶ 1:14:20 Weekly Recap: Tesla's Crazy Plan, USA vs. Google, Palantir CEO on Conspiracy Theories
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Mark Zuckerberg regularly wears an F.P. Journe watch
“And yet the boss is rocking an FP Jorn regularly.”
John Coogan Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 29:41 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
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