The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 196 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Crivello: Meta AI VP and Researchers Resigned Over Unethical Practices
“The VP of AI research at Meta resigned and so have a couple members of the core research team seemingly in protest for what they deemed to be unethical practices.”
Dana White: Meta hired young talent with $65M average compensation
“We just hired, like,
10 kids that are aged 22 to 28, the average salary is like sixty-five million dollars that these kids are making.”
Iovine: Software companies cannot build hardware and suffer from 'hardware envy'
“They're a great company, but none of these companies can make hardware, and they all have hardware envy.”
China blocks Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI platform Manus
“China has blocked Meta's two billion dollar acquisition of artificial intelligence platform Manus after regulators reviewed whether the deal violated Beijing's investment rules.”
Coogan: MedV runs 800 fake doctor Facebook accounts to sell GLP-1s
“They are apparently running 800 fake doctor accounts on Facebook to sell compounded GLP ones. Shiel Monat verified that the accounts are not actually doctors.”
An Oculus executive secretly intercepted Luckey's invitation to ring the NYSE bell
“Back in the Oculus days, when we sold the company to Meta, one of the first things that happened was New York Stock Exchange emailed our contact info, email, and they asked if I would come and ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange.
Sounds pretty cool, r…”
Crivello: Meta's Llama 4 Has Good Evals but Bad Vibes
“I will say, I feel bad for saying that because I have friends like the Lama team, but boy, like Lama for the vibes are really bad. Like the emails are good and the vibes are quite bad actually.”
Crivello: Zuckerberg Threatened to Fire Meta AI Org Over Targets
“I think Zach is, is massively raising the temperature and I think he's basically threatened to like Destroy the whole org or, like, fire happy org or, like, similar stuff like that if they don't hit certain targets by a certain date, and I think that's led to …”
Frank: Apple launched iOS 14 privacy changes because Facebook refused revenue-sharing
“And that was the whole iOS, 14 breakdown, right? Is that Apple wanted to, they wanted revenue from Facebook in exchange for that data. And Facebook said, no, so they shut it down.”
Hays: Massive AI Pay Packages Create One-Year Retention Cliffs
“When you're paying these people nine figures, 10 figures many of those people are gonna basically spend a year and hit a point where they're like, okay, I have a hundred million dollars in the bank and I'm kind of good now.”
Hays: Meta only open-sources AI models lacking exceptional demand
“I don't, like, knowing how commercial this team is, I don't think they would open source or open make the model open weights if they felt like there was going to be exceptional demand for it.”
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg lacks real AI product vision or strategy
“Ultimately, it's a lot of words from someone who I don't believe has any real vision or strategy.”
New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay over $900 million
“A New Mexico judge has ordered Meta to pay more than nine hundred million dollars And impose new restrictions on how minors in the state use Facebook and Instagram.”
Meta loses to Chinese AI labs because lawsuit fears block distillation
“Moonshot and Meta are in competition and they both open source things at various times and they have APIs and there's all the different businesses. And one is fighting with one arm tied behind his back because Meta can't do distillation because they'll get sue…”
Coogan: Top RL Data Contractors Earn Seven Figures Annually
“The top expert contractors at every data company, they're all making seven figures a year. Which is pretty crazy since people thought of data labeling as a 10 dollar an hour task, and now you have people making millions of dollars a year, because they're actua…”
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
Coogan: Meta Reassigned 30% to 50% of Core Engineers to Data Labeling
“30 to 50% of engineers on core teams have been forcibly, forcefully reassigned to data labeling.”
Kim: AI chatbots threatening search positions Meta better than Google
“Like, no one's going to replace better digital ad position. I mean, like, I would even say in the AI world, they're even better positioned, because Google might lose digital ad share to AI chatbots, their search position in the future. So, like, no one's going…”
Novak: LA jury finds Meta and YouTube liable for algorithmic addiction
“Yesterday, a Los Angeles jury, both meta and YouTube liable Wah, wah. For a twenty-year-old woman's mental health crisis in a bellwether trial that treated platforms as, quote, defective products, and potentially marks the end to the absolute immunity nature o…”
Hays: Reuters Reports Meta Planning Layoffs of 20% or More
“Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company. Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Meta seeks to offset AI infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought by AI assisted workers.”
Gurley: Index Funds Already Provide Sufficient AI Exposure for Retail Investors
“There's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index.
NVIDIA is such a large part of the index.
You have exposure to Microsoft and Google and Facebook.
Like, I don't know that you need to be in that place”
Shah: AI strengthens true network effects like Meta over demand aggregators
“Network effects are more powerful than ever, I think, in this world. Yeah. So things like Meta really have a lot to sort of gain in that sense, but I think things that look like they're network effect businesses, but in fact are just the ones that are doing th…”
Karp's $17.2M jet spending dwarfs Meta and Palo Alto Networks CEOs
“Notably, this 17.2 figures more than double carp's executive aircraft expense in 2024 and appears elevated relative to peers with Meta CEO spending 1.8 million and Palo Alto Network CEO spending 2.4 million.”
Meta patents AI system to simulate deceased users on video calls
“Meta has obtained a patent for an AI system that could simulate deceased users by analyzing their historical data, allowing the account to keep posting, messaging, and even making video calls in their behavioral style.”
Patel: Meta licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, and models
“Meta's licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, models.”
Hays: Meta Could Add $1T by Focusing AI Talent on Core Business
“From everything that we've seen so far, it feels like Meta could add a trillion dollars to its market cap. By just focusing all this incredible talent on just making the core business better.”
Gurman: Meta's display glasses are 2-3 years ahead of Apple's
“I have the Ray-Ban displays that Meta gave me to test out. Those are amazing. And they're like two, three years ahead of whatever Apple's got.”
Rosenthal: Yann LeCun is the only major AI leader not from Google
“You know, every single major leader in AI that you know of, no matter what company they are at, with the one exception of Jan LeCun at Facebook. He's the only one. Who, like, didn't come from Google.”
Bosworth: Direct AI interfaces will replace traditional app stores on future devices
“And in the future, you're not going to have an app store. Like I don't need, I don't want to go figure out what the app for my toaster was called and like make sure I make toast, man. Like I said, talk to the AI and let it handle the backend.”
Wang: Scale AI's research team of 100 scientists is one-tenth competitors' size
“Our team is smaller and more talent dense than any of the other labs. The other labs are like 10 times bigger, and our team is about a hundred people of cracked AI scientists”
Coogan: AI is a sustaining technology favoring profitable incumbents like Google and Meta
“The way in which Google seems to have flipped the switch in terms of going all in on AI along with Meta's spending on AI talent really does Strongly suggest that AI, in the end, is a sustaining technology that favors the incumbents most of all. Both see a line…”
Patel: Meta is the first company paying AI researchers their true value
“I mean, I still think they're, like, underpaying them. I think, like, Meta's the first company that is actually coming close to the break-even point of what the best AI researchers are actually worth the company.”
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
Depue: Meta may eventually shift to releasing closed flagship AI models
“I w it wouldn't surprise me if they go kind of the Google route where like they are still, they still do open source. They still have the llama brand, but it isn't like their flagship thing where they start doing, whether it's for internal products or it's, th…”
Depue: Yann LeCun had no involvement with Meta's LLaMA models
“I think it's a shame that they didn't necessarily have someone in the llama org who was as visible as him because he was not involved with llama at all. Like fair fundamental AI research is like a whole other group that they mostly write papers and do very aca…”
Meta is buying a 49 percent stake in Scale AI for $15B
“Meta is paying fifteen billion. I thought it was 1415, something like that for a 49% stake in scale AI that pays out investors and employees. CEO Alex Wang is leaving to join Meta and head up a super intelligence lab.”
Kovacevich: FTC faces an uphill battle in Meta antitrust trial
“And frankly, I think the FTC has a really tough case there.”
Kovacevich: FTC and DOJ divided Big Tech targets rather than subject matter
“What happened was about six years ago, the FTC and the Justice Department, they share responsibility for antitrust. They got together and they said, they basically struck a deal and they said, okay, FTC, you get Meta and Amazon and DOJ, you get Google and Appl…”
Will Brown: Nobody will run Meta's giant model for daily tasks
“When Meta releases this behemoth model, I don't think anyone's really gonna run behemoth. For like their day to day stuff. It's just probably not gonna be worth it.”
Huber: Open-source models win B2B through developer focus, not beating GPT-5
“Focus on the developers. I think that's the beachhead. That's how you win the B to B market. If you win the B to B market with your open source models, Like, you get all of the sort of downstream effects that you want. You know, you don't need to beat you know…”
Meta contact called current climate for DTC brands a "bloodbath"
“The second point that I have is from our contact at Meta who described the current climate for DTC brands, at least the growth oriented ones as a quote unquote bloodbath.”
Senra: Mark Zuckerberg is by far the best 40-year-old public CEO
“It's like now he's like working, you know, the best you know, the best 40 year old public company CEO in the world by far”
Bartlett: Most AI equity value will probably accrue to Big Tech incumbents
“And I think in large part, maybe with the exception of open AI, like the vast majority of the equity value will probably end up accumulating to the Facebooks and the Microsofts and the, you know, the Googles and I guess open AI as well.”
Coogan: Meta's AI Deployment Will Likely Hurt Google Search More Than Bing
“And so Meta's deployment probably hurts Google search more than Bing or perplexity ever will. Because people will just wind up searching in Facebook and Instagram.”
Coogan: DeepSeek Open Sourcing Leading-Edge Model Will Disrupt AI Competition
“Zuck has been running this playbook with Llama open sourcing the lagging edge AI model, and it's had a strong effect on the competition. And so deep seek open sourcing, the leading edge model is going to have a similar effect.”
Coogan: Most future consumer AI usage will occur through existing platforms
“Most future consumer LLM usage will go through existing platforms, Google, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, iPhone, Android.”