why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Cohen says GameStop will issue stock to fund half-cash eBay takeover
“We're offering half cash, half stock, and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done.”
Disclosure
Cohen: GameStop offered $125 per share half-cash, half-stock for eBay
“We made an offer yesterday. 125 bucks a share. Half cash, half stock.”
Assertion Supported
Ryan Cohen: GameStop Has $20B Bank Letter and $9B Cash for Bid
“We have the cash accounted for today in terms of, ah, a highly confident letter from our bank for the twenty billion, plus we've got nine billion of cash, so.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: eBay's $5.5B opex and 11,500 headcount make no sense
“They're spending five and a half billion dollars on operating expenses on eleven billion dollar business that Has no inventory in its asset lights. So, it just, there's 11 and a half thousand employees, and it doesn't make sense.”
Opinion
Cohen: eBay has more runway than Chewy and is 'Chewy on steroids'
“EBay is like Chewy on steroids. And so there's so much more runway, and it's global.”
Opinion
Cohen: eBay is worth far more than $125/share under his leadership
“When I think about what eBay could be worth, if I'm running this business, I believe it's a heck of a lot more than a 125 dollars a share.”
Disclosure
Ryan Cohen intends to permanently run eBay, not act as an activist.
“The goal here isn't to be an activist. The goal is I want to own eBay. I want to run eBay. Like, I want that to be my baby.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: eBay directors make $350K-$450K each with zero insider buying
“You know, the directors board of directors make four million dollars. It's like 350 to 450,000 per director. There's been no insider buying at the company.”
Opinion
Cohen: eBay has 130M users but gets crushed in live commerce
“EBay has a hundred and thirty million users and they're getting crushed by competitors in live commerce.”
Disclosure
Cohen: eBay Ignored Partnership Outreach One to Two Years Ago
“I reached out to eBay, like, I don't know, maybe a year or two years ago to talk to them about partnering, and They didn't engage seriously.”
Insight
Midha: Agentic commerce requires physical verification systems
“You need physical verification built into the system for agentic commerce.”
Opinion
Coogan: eBay has essentially offered the exact same service for 20 years
“EBay is, in my opinion, just the most said it and forget it company that's just had the same service for 20 years basically.”
Opinion
Cohen: eBay Sells Digital Goods but Handles Delivery and Fraud Poorly
“In terms of the digital marketplace, and they are already doing it to a certain extent. I mean, like, all kinds of Roblox digital items are bought and sold, but and I've actually bought them for my kids, and there's so much fraud on the platform. Like, we're b…”
Disclosure
Cohen: Majority of personal net worth will be tied to eBay deal
“Well I haven't done the math, but if things go correctly, then it better be the majority. Otherwise I'm wasting my time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cohen: eBay's Business Model Future Is More Certain Than Most Tech Businesses
“You know, I think that eBay is the kind of business where the future of the business model is more certain than most tech businesses, and that's why it's done so well. And, you know, there's been such a lack of innovation, yet it hasn't been able to be disrupt…”
Opinion
Cohen: Large tech competitors cannot acquire eBay due to antitrust
“The strategics can't really do it because I don't think that they would be able to clear antitrust. So any of the large competitors wouldn't be able to acquire it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Midha: Amazon's collectibles business has been flat for six years
“Amazon's used and collect, collectibles business has been flat for six years. They tried renewed, they tried collectibles, they tried trade-in, none of it's still.”
Assertion Supported
Midha: eBay spent $2.4B on marketing to add 1M users
“If you pull up eBay's 10 K from February, fiscal 25, and I did not understand this until I read it, eBay spent 2.4 billion dollars on marketing. How many new users did they get for that? I mean, you guys are marketers, you understand. One million. That's crazy…”
Assertion Partly supported
Hays: eBay settlement awards couple $48M plus $7M in charitable donations
“Under the settlement, the couple will receive forty eight million in compensation from eBay and former employees. EBay will also pay six million to charitable, charitable organizations. And Wenig will pay one million to a free speech charity in Ina Steiner's n…”
Opinion
Cohen: Live commerce and luxury collectibles offer massive revenue runway for eBay
“But I mean, in terms of doing that well, accelerating revenue growth you know, I think that that is, that's big. And so going much deeper into collectibles and luxury trading cards, there's a lot of runway there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cohen: Authenticating eBay Collectibles at GameStop Stores Would Cost Zero Capex
“Well, that would, so yes, and it would basically take zero dollars in capex in order to something like that, and it's a good idea.”
Disclosure
Ryan Cohen: eBay live commerce strategy relies on creator partnerships and UI
“Yeah, it would be partnering with creators. I mean, they've got the platform, We would improve the platform so it looks better and more consistent with the kind of UI that you have at competitors, but there's the user base. And so it's not something you have t…”
Opinion
Jordi Hays: eBay remains remarkably durable against vertical competitors
“EBay is an incredible business. It's been remarkably durable. They've faced an onslaught of competition for every single category from sneakers to watches to art to name any cars, right? Any category there is like a vertical competitor to eBay. And yet the bus…”
Opinion
eBay's secondary market liquidity drove the 1990s Beanie Baby mania.
“EBay was a major, major driver of Beanie Baby's growth because people could buy them and then the secondary market was way more liquid than ever before.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Apple Vision Pro Resale Value Plunges by 50% on eBay
“You can buy an Apple Vision Pro for four K and go on eBay and sell it for two K the next day. Like, The depreciation is insane on the, on this product”
Assertion Supported
Ryan Cohen: GameStop has 1,600 access points for authentication
“We've got 1600 access points that we can do live authentication.”
Assertion Supported
eBay acquires fashion recommerce app Depop from Etsy for $1.2B
“EBay is buying Depop from Etsy for 1.2 billion dollars, and this is in the Wall Street Journal.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Jimmy Soni Spent Longer Writing 'The Founders' Than PayPal's Lifespan
“It took him longer to write the founder's book than it took PayPal to be founded and then sold to eBay.”