The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: METR Study Found AI Coding Tools Made Developers 19% Slower
“The meter team did these evaluations where they ran a randomized control trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up open source developers, and what they found was that developers said that they expected products like cursor and windsurf to improve them by…”
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Lessin: Cursor is a great product but not a good business
“Cursor's, I like it. I use it as a product. I don't see it as a good business.”
Coogan: Cursor hit $2B ARR and is growing 25% month-over-month
“I mean, I just, we just saw this with cursor. Everyone's like, cursor's over, it's dead. And then you see, okay, well, they just hit 20 two billion ARR. Oh, growing 25% month over month.”
Masad: Low switching costs threaten VS Code forks like Cursor and Windsurf
“I think, especially on the VS Code Wars, the switching costs being so low, Is, is going to be a challenge for them. You can go from Copilot to Windsurf to Cursor in like five minutes.”
Coogan: Cursor, Anthropic, Meta, and Google Will Buy Cerebras Chips
“Every, every lab that has exploding demand, Cursor, Anthropic Meta, and Google, like, unless they have, like, a direct answer to this, I would see them being a buyer in the near term.”
Hays: xAI Will Struggle to Catch Up in AI Code Generation
“Feels like really hard to catch up in CodeGen, even if you have some great people from Cursor. Like, it's just so, so, so competitive and there's, I don't see it.”
Coogan: Cursor Generates $500M in Revenue and $3.2M Per Employee
“The top was Curser at five hundred million in annual revenue and they're making 3.2 million dollars in revenue per employee.”
Coogan: Google Acquiring Windsurf Should Have Been Antitrust Rubber Stamp
“This is textbook. They should be able to acquire this company, right? Like, cursors out there. They're not acquiring the market leader.”
Mtibaa: My custom Neovim framework would probably kill Cursor if open-sourced
“It is a cursor competitor and it's probably going to kill cursor if I open source it, but I'm not going to sell for money.”
Brown: Windsurf Succeeds Against Cursor by Prioritizing Enterprise Integration
“A reason that Windsurf has been successful as a Cursor competitor is they lean way harder on enterprise than Cursor has. Like, they have really designed for enterprise integration, whereas Cursor really has not.”
Swyx: Cursor Grew From Zero to $200M ARR in Two Years
“Zero to two hundred million AR in two years is crazy.”
Masad: Vibe coding on Cursor fails for beginners due to missing guardrails
“I think where vibe coding goes wrong is when a beginner is using cursor, some other platform, great product, but they don't give them guardrails.”
Hays: Cursor is generating $100M ARR with 20 employees
“And I think we're really seeing that right now in AI where you have companies like cursor, a big one, you know, with 20 people doing a hundred million of ARR.”
Baker: Cursor Is Now Deployed in Half of Fortune 500 Companies
“I do think cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting.”
Coogan: xAI Poached Two Senior Leaders From Cursor for Coding
“XAI hired two or two senior leaders from Cursor to catch up on coding.”
Jordi Hays: Coding agents have the most real traction among AI agents
“People talk about Claude code a lot, and there's some individual use cases, like, coding agents seem to have the most real traction.”
Depue: Cursor and Claude 3.5 Sonnet made AI coding genuinely useful
“And then it took until cursor for it to really like, I think cursor plus like three, five summit was when it became a thing that was good enough that people were excited about it. And it really ushered in the trend because people were starting to find it more …”
Cursor, Harvey, Decagon, and Sierra are succeeding in enterprise AI
“Well, I mean, certainly there are things that are working, like obviously Cursor Cursor is working in a gigantic way. I think Harvey's working in a gigantic way. Decagon and Sierra seem like they're doing really, really well.”
Coogan: AI Assistants Turn $10K Dev Contracts into One-Hour Tasks
“Software development will become as easy as creating YouTube videos. Thanks to AI coding assistance. That's true and happening with cursor and Devon. We're seeing this I mean, even like the software developers, like people in the community are just building to…”
Cursor Composer 2 costs $0.50 and $2.50 per million tokens.
“It is frontier level at coding priced at 50 cents per million input tokens and two and a half dollars per million output tokens.”
Armstrong: Coinbase onboarded 100% of engineers to AI coding tools
“We onboarded all of our engineers to co-pilot and cursor and everything like that. So we got a hundred percent of them onboarded.”