why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Shah: Consumers will use AI agents for autonomous purchases within six months
“You just, and no one's really doing this yet, but it's going to happen, I think, you know, in the next six months. Is just tell your agent, you know, tell Gemini, tell ChatGPT, go buy these things, it has your credit card, and now that world that they were des…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: OpenAI officially rolled out ads in ChatGPT today
“Apparently OpenAI actually rolled out ads in ChatGPT today.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: ChatGPT daily active users fell 6% following Google Gemini launch
“In the two weeks since the Gemini launched, ChatGPT unique daily active users, a seven-day average, are down six percent.”
Assertion Supported
Brockman: OpenAI surpasses one billion weekly active users
“We're now well over a billion users every week”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Altman Memo Directed OpenAI to Personalize ChatGPT for 800M Users
“So what Sam said in the internal Slack memo is he was directing more employees to focus on improving features of ChatGPT, such as personalizing the chat bot for more than eight hundred million people.”
Prediction Held up
Gurman: Apple built an in-house AI search to rival Perplexity
“What they haven't talked about Is AI web search. And so the new Siri is also going to have a chat GPT perplexity competitor for things like deep research and summarizing search. That is going to be an Apple built, an Apple powered system.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: OpenAI generates around $1B per month in revenue
“Like, you know, they're generating, what, a billion dollars a month in revenue at this point. Everyone uses the app. It's installed everywhere. Like, that, that, that token demand is not going anywhere, that infrastructure demand is not going anywhere, so.”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Total Deaths Attributable to ChatGPT Are Still Zero
“Yeah, I believe in this case, total deaths attributable to ChatGPT are still zero.”
Assertion Supported
Rabois: Most OpenAI revenue comes from durable ChatGPT subscriptions
“OpenAI, most of their revenue comes from ChatGPT subscriptions. That's pretty durable. Consumers or people using it, you know, for business applications, but on an individual basis.”
Assertion Supported
Google built an internal ChatGPT equivalent but chose not to ship it
“They obviously had effectively a version of ChatGPT internally. They didn't ship it.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: New ChatGPT Desktop App Replaced Native Mac App with Electron
“The new ChatGPT app is just the Codex app, and when you install it, you can keep the
The old ChatGPT app as ChatGPT classic, but a lot of people don't like that because the Codex app is written in Electron, which means it's a bunch of like web views, web brows…”
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT generates 75% of Apple's generative AI App Store revenue.
“Three fourths of the revenue Apple rakes in from Gen AI apps in its App Store come from ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: ServiceNow commits revenue in three-year deal to integrate OpenAI models
“So they signed a three year deal that will integrate the AI models. ChatGPT's models into ServiceNow's business software. The deal depends on customers using OpenAI's models within ServiceNow and also includes a revenue commitment from ServiceNow to OpenAI.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Over 40M people daily ask ChatGPT health questions
“Fiji gave some amazing stats here with more than forty million people globally turning to ChatGPT every day for health questions.”
Prediction Held up
Gurman: Apple Will Not Remove ChatGPT-Siri Integration
“They're not taking that away. They're not taking it away.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: ChatGPT hits 700M weekly active users amid massive compute demands
“Company executives made it clear that the Abilene site was just the beginning, noting they envisioned a need for more than 20 gigawatts of computing capacity to meet the explosive demand for ChatGPT, which now has more than seven hundred million weekly users.”
Assertion Supported
LiveKit's d'Sa: LiveKit built the infrastructure for OpenAI's ChatGPT voice modes
“Fast forward, like, about a year and a half, two years, and, ah, we built a demo when ChatGPT first came out, ah, where you could talk to it instead of text with it using LiveKit's infrastructure, and a few months later, OpenAI ended up finding it, ah, wanted …”
Assertion Supported
D'Sa: LiveKit partnered with OpenAI to build ChatGPT voice mode
“We built a demo when ChatGPT first came out, ah, where you could talk to it instead of text with it using LiveKit's infrastructure, and a few months later, OpenAI ended up finding it, ah, wanted to build a voice interface to ChatGPT, And we started to work pre…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: OpenAI Built Consumer Scale After Wrappers Reached Tens of Millions ARR
“Before chat GPT, there were products like copy.ai that were leveraging the API well, and like had gotten to decent, not scale, but tens of millions of ARR, and then OpenAI was like, oh, actually we're a consumer product company now, and then now they have hund…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: ChatGPT launches personal finance features
“ChatGPT launched personal finance features.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: ChatGPT conversations are legally admissible in court without privilege
“Your conversations with ChatGPT are not, are definitely admissible in court. And so it's like a Google search. It's not like talking to your lawyer.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: 85% of ChatGPT's weekly active users are outside the US
“85% of their weekly actives are outside of the U.S.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Grok is the top free app on Japan's App Store
“It is the number one free app on the Japanese app store. It is above ChatGPT and all the different local products that I can't read the names of.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: 90% of 1,000 ChatGPT jokes were repeats of 25 jokes
“Famously, 90% of the 1000 outputs asking chat GPT for a joke were repetitions of the same 25 jokes.”
Prediction Held up
Coogan: AI apps will dynamically route user prompts across models automatically
“Very quickly, they're going to be able to put a router in front of that and dynamically decide, oh, this is a question that needs to go to oh, one. This is a question that needs to go to four. Four O or whatever, and all of that will become extracted.”