why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carter: B2B stablecoin payment service providers will face thin margins
“The BAB stable coin payments, like the PSP stable coin based PSP thing, immensely commoditized. There's a hundred new bridges, right? Everybody wants to be the next bridge. Very, very competitive, very hard. Gonna be thin margin.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Stablecoin merchant adoption will rise via Bridge and Stripe
“Strong like infrastructure Platforms like Bridge, and especially the amount of investment that I imagine Stripe will put behind Bridge going forward, like merchant adoption will go up. Coinbase, you know, recently, you know, last week ran that ad, you know, sh…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Bridge had a $15M revenue run rate at Stripe acquisition
“It was like fifteen million dollar run rate.”
What-if
Mohnot: Circle stock would have surged during Stripe's Bridge acquisition hype
“And I bet if circle was public at that point, they would have gotten a huge bump for no particular reason.”
Opinion
Hayes: Bridge acquisition is 2024's tech acquisition of the year
“Acquisition of the year for me had to be bridge.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Stripe Acquired Bridge for Over $1 Billion
“Yeah, the top story, we gotta talk about Stripe acquiring Bridge for over one billion dollars.”
Insight
Hays: Taking Regulatory and Platform Risk Creates Exponential Startup Alpha
“It shows that there's so much alpha and just being okay with the fact that you're taking on a regular, you're taking on a lot of regulatory risk, you're taking on a lot of platform risk, and you need to just That's part of what creates these sort of exponentia…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Stripe's Bridge Deal Will Spark Massive Crypto Infrastructure Investing
“And the funny thing is this will inspire an entire massive wave of new crypto infrastructure investing.”
Disclosure
Harris: Founders Fund received roughly 50 stablecoin pitches post-Bridge deal
“I think after the bridge acquisition, we genuinely got like. Probably, like, 50 stable coin pitches. Like, it was legitimately, like, insane.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Scale AI pays international contractors using a Bridge-powered product
“With bridge, the one Really interesting example that I did see of, like, a company using this, and it was a perfect example of this was scale. So they have a bunch of contractors internationally. They want to pay them quickly in dollars because there's no fluc…”
Disclosure
Hays: Passed on early investments in Bridge and Polymarket
“I talked with Zach within six months of him incorporating Bridge, didn't invest. I met Shane from Polymarket, like we would DM back in like, 20, 21, and I didn't go back up the Brinks truck.”