why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
Jeff Yan: Bitcoin would not be Bitcoin if Satoshi raised a Series A
“Bitcoin would not be Bitcoin if he had raised Series A, even if best investors in the world, you know, sickest cap table ever, still, still would, I would say that would not, Bitcoin would not be Bitcoin.”
Opinion
Armstrong: Satoshi Nakamoto was probably Hal Finney, Nick Szabo, and collaborators
“It's probably some combination of, like, Hal Finney and Nick Szabo and maybe one other person, but that's my guess, is that it was a collaboration between those people and, you know, but ultimately it doesn't matter.”
Disclosure
Sequoia passed on Coinbase because buying Bitcoin directly seemed better
“It's actually a big part of why Sequoia passed on Coinbase in the time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Yan: There will never be another Bitcoin
“There will never be another Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Yan: Bitcoin perpetual futures drive price discovery over spot assets
“Like you look at Bitcoin, for example, on any one exchange, there's like usually one very liquid Bitcoin perp and that's the liquid asset forever, never expires. And like, that's where the price discovery happens. Like billions and billions of dollars will tra…”
Opinion
Armstrong: Satoshi Nakamoto was likely a collaboration of Finney, Szabo, and others
“It's probably some combination of, like, Hal Finney and Nick Szabo and maybe one other person, but that's my guess, is that it was a collaboration between those people”
Insight
Balaji: Blockchain immutability and programmability are fundamentally in conflict
“The problem is that like gold should be as immutable as possible and mutability is in conflict with, I mean, programmability is a good value and immutable is a good value, but those are like you know, fire and water. They don't mix, right? There's, you know, y…”
Insight
Bitcoin functions as a religion with a native asset, not an investment
“Whenever I've underestimated Bitcoin, it's from thinking of it as an investment asset versus a religion. So the difference between, like, the oil industry and the Bitcoin industry is people in the oil industry are like, this is a resource that we fundamentally…”
Insight
Hays: Investors should never sell Bitcoin and just ride out volatility
“If people have learned anything from the last decade, it's that you pretty much never want to sell your Bitcoin, and you just want to ride the volatility, ah, as much as you can, and just hold and stack, so.”
Insight
CZ: Bitcoin is uniquely decentralized because its founder no longer participates
“Without knowing him, that we don't have a founder centralization. Right. For example, if you look at Ethereum, Metallic's there. Right. So there's a founder centralization. What makes Bitcoin unique is that we don't know, we, well, the founder's no longer part…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Jefferies strategist cuts 10% Bitcoin allocation over quantum computing fears
“That same month, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jeffries, removed A 10% allocation to Bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing fears that the advent of quantum computing could undermine the token.”
Insight
Cosgrove: Quantum hackers would quietly drain Bitcoin, not publicly announce it
“If you did have a computer powerful enough to crack these encryptions, unless you were like, Google and you already had billions and billions and billions of dollars of cash flow. You wouldn't exactly stand up and say like, Hey, I have cracked Bitcoin because …”
Disclosure
Shkreli: We Tried to Short Bitcoin at $100
“We tried to short Bitcoin at a hundred dollars. And we just need to find a counter party.”
Insight
Dixon: Tech adoption is either institutional 'inside-out' or fringe 'outside-in'
“I sort of like to distinguish technologies between what I call inside out and outside in. And some inside out of things that sort of start with established institutions, like AI to some extent is like that, you know, the iPhone was like this. It came out of Ap…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Severe inflation drives Bitcoin demand in Turkey and Nigeria
“Where people, like in Turkey, they're getting like, 70% inflation a year or something. It's just like, it's devastating to their entire economy. People have very high demand for the dollar and then Bitcoin. Same thing in Nigeria, et cetera.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harris: Bitcoin whales will widely adopt lending protocols to avoid selling
“And, like, if you can lend against your Bitcoin and make your asset more productive, like, there's going to be so many whales that, that, that want to do that. Like, they just do not want to sell.”
Assertion Supported
El Salvador's $268 Million Bitcoin Treasury Position Reached $573 Million
“He bought two hundred and sixty eight million dollars worth of Bitcoin, and it's now worth Five hundred and seventy three million.”
Opinion
MicroStrategy Is Essentially a Bitcoin ETF Trading at 3x Book Value
“It is basically a Bitcoin ETF that trades at a three X to book value.”
Assertion Partly supported
New York's Bathhouse used Bitcoin mining heat to warm its tubs
“When it first opened, Bathhouse was jokingly called the Bitcoin Bathhouse as they used the heat generated from mining to warm the tubs.”
Disclosure
Dixon: a16z Crypto Combines Early Venture, Direct Token Buying, and Trading
“That's one reason we started a separate crypto fund, right? We both do kind of early stage traditional venture and do things like buy tokens like Bitcoin directly in the market. And then we have our own like city and trading, and we sort of built out all these…”
Assertion Partly supported
Armstrong: Early Coinbase referral program paid $10 in Bitcoin per user
“If you invited your friend and they onboarded They got 10 dollars of bitcoin, and you got 10 dollars of bitcoin. And at the time, that was like about one bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Palmer Luckey was mining Bitcoin at age 16
“Palmer Luckey, the founder of Mod Retro and Anderle,
Was mining Bitcoin at age 16.”
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: Coinbase offered a 1 BTC referral bonus during YC Summer 2012
“In our YC batch, the referral bonus for going on Coinbase at the time was one Bitcoin.”