why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Asparouhov: US should put 10% of foundry budget into domesticating lithography
“Like, I don't think that like trying to just copy the ASML tech tree makes any sense. I'm not sure that anybody else has come up with an energy source that like, you know, sort of as an option. So there probably needs to be like some, you know, sort of back. S…”
Opinion
Asparouhov: US should invent new chipmaking tech rather than copy ASML
“That's where it's like, I think actually you're sort of better off starting with a blank slate on a totally different technological approach and just like domesticating that.”
Opinion
Asparouhov: US lacks leverage to force ASML manufacturing onto American soil
“With ASML. It's like, okay, this is like a, you know, sort of European company. And like, if we start to try to like sanction or slap fines on them, they'll be like, okay, great. The very limited number of machines we were selling to the U S we're going to sto…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: China is building domestic equivalents to TSMC, Nvidia, and ASML
“China is actively working to catch up in chip fabrication with SMIC and SME. So they have their own TSMC, they have their own NVIDIA, and they have their own ASML.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: US has conceded semiconductor lithography monopoly to ASML
“There hasn't been a whole lot of effort, you know, so domestically in the United States to really do anything around lithography. We've just kind of accepted that the Dutch, right? I think it's a Dutch company. You know, are gonna, you know, have that monopoly…”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Mistral raised $1.3 billion led by ASML
“Their last round was led by ASML. 1.3 billion dollars from the Dutch chip maker.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung invested $6.8B in ASML in 2012
“ASML, the Dutch company, they did what's called a customer co-investment program. Where Intel, TSMC, and Samsung pitched in 6.8 billion dollars across R&D funding and equity purchases in the company in order to help pull in order to help ASML. This is 2012.”