The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Coogan: AI providers will eventually pay Apple to route search queries
“Now my real hot take is that I think it's going to flip at some point. And I think Google or someone else is going to pay Apple To route LLM queries to them, because with the universal commerce protocol, agentic commerce protocol with ads and LLM responses, th…”
John Coogan Jan 14, 2026 ▶ 0:19 Siri needs an App, OpenAI Acquires health startup Torch, Claude Cowork reactions | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Frank: Apple will make $40B from ad data exchange in two years
“They will get probably forty billion dollars in the next two years from just ad data exchange. I think that's tracking.”
Sean Frank Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 12:16 Sean Frank talks about Meta monetizing WhatsApp, Ridge Wallet, and the downfall of Solo Brands.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Gurman: Apple's 2027 smart glasses will not feature visual displays
“The first version won't have displays, like the older metal Ray-Bans or the base level metal Ray-Bans. Those are coming out in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 27:05 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Coogan: Apple approved a multi-billion dollar 2026 cloud AI model budget
“Apple has already improved, approved a multi-billion dollar budget for two, 2026 for running its own models via the cloud, but plans For that beyond remain, for beyond that remain murky.”
John Coogan Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 11:01 Apple Considers New AI partnership
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Hays: Apple's iPhone Duo will completely avoid a display crease
“In this video, there is no crease. I'm sure the YouTube tech reviewers will be hunting in all different lighting for creases, but it feels like Apple waited long enough to avoid a crease whatsoever, so you will get no crease.”
Jordi Hays Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 1:00 Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Hays: Apple will build proprietary smart glasses rather than partner for eyewear
“My expectation, my uninformed expectation is that Apple will just make Apple glasses, right? They will probably, I, it's hard to see them taking the route at least early on of partnering and allowing another company to influence the design language”
Jordi Hays May 21, 2026 ▶ 6:02 Google I/O: Day 1 Reactions, Goldman to Lead SpaceX IPO | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Hays: Apple will block iMessage data portability to Google's Gemini
“I have zero faith that there will be any portability. And the reason for that is Apple's paying Google to effectively, yeah, white label the model, leverage Gemini in the next version of Apple intelligence. And they're just gonna be focused on integrating it w…”
Jordi Hays Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 3:33 Cloudflare Outage, iMessages in Gemini 3, 𝕏 Reactions to Gemini 3 | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Hays: Apple will not acquire Sonos
“I think they're not going to get bought by Apple because Apple could be like, well, why don't we spend a billion dollars developing a better speaker and sell it through our thousands of stores?”
Jordi Hays Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 34:20 What's Happening at SONOS (Total Disaster)
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