The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic compute capacity will scale from 3GW to 20GW
“OpenAI and Anthropic combined to start the year had three gigawatts of compute. Three combined. They're gonna end the year closer to 10, and end next year closer to 20.”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Gerstner: Anthropic and OpenAI will keep growing despite enterprise spend optimization
“Of course, I believe that optimization will continue, but my hunch is that anthropic and open and these companies will continue to grow right through the optimization because the growth curve on penetration of both enterprise and use case is so steep.”
Hays: Rival frontier AI labs will eventually collaborate to pace development
“Pacing the frontier, collaborating with other labs. I'm oddly optimistic that this will happen. Obviously, you know, there's the Sam and Dario can't even hold hands on stage in that India conference, but AI has made strange bedfellows out of people.”
Coogan: Claude Fable 5.1 achieved highest-ever AI index score
“Fable 5.1 get the highest result ever on the index. The scores also have Opus five, which got 63, and Fable, which got a 62.”
US government establishes task force to prevent AI model distillation
“There is new news from Michael Kratzios that the government seems to be taking anthropic and opening eyes messaging around distillation very seriously and is setting up a task force.”