why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Alibaba has repeatedly distilled Anthropic's Claude model
“Anthropix's Alibaba has distilled, clawed many, many times, and I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: China's MOFCOM Discussed Restricting AI Weights and Overseas Training Data
“Moffcom. Talk to AI companies including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zipu on limiting the transfer of key data for the training of their models overseas, as well as allowing their model weights to be downloaded by foreign users.”
Assertion Partly supported
Anthropic accuses major Chinese AI labs of distilling its Claude model
“Anthropic has accused DeepSeek, Moonshot, Minimax, ZAI, Alibaba, all of distilling Claude”
Opinion
Hays: Masayoshi Son's Alibaba bet was historically greatest VC investment
“Historically, like, the greatest venture investment ever, in my view, was, ah, Masa's twenty million investment in Alibaba.”
Opinion
Brown: Alibaba Qwen makes the best model suites for research
“Like they make, I think, still the best model suites for like doing research.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Alibaba Offloaded Warehouse Costs to Chinese Regional Governments
“Alibaba was able to get regional governments to absorb warehouse construction costs on their balance sheets rather than directly pay for it, and looked extremely asset light and software-y when it went public.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: A 3% SpaceX float would beat Alibaba's US IPO record
“Even a tiny three percent float would comfortably eclipse the U.S. IPO record set by Alibaba's twenty five billion dollar float in 2014.”
Insight
Laffont: Meta and Alibaba Sparked Structural Shift by Staying Private Longer
“I think what really changed for us in the early 2010 was meta. Then Facebook and Alibaba staying private for longer. We just never seen companies of that scale who were that important to our research and our market not go public.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Alibaba, Baidu, Kuaishou, and Tencent Downsized Headcounts Across 2021–2023
“Big tech groups in China have been downsizing in the past few years. So this is 20, 21, 20, 22 and 20, 23 for Alibaba, Baidu, Kuaishou and Tencent. And they're all downsizing across those three years.”