Lessin: Flawed expected-value math causes VCs to overpay for AI startups
Sam Lessin · The GREAT VC AI DEBATE between Slow Ventures and Greylock Partners. · Mar 17, 2025 · at 12:46
Sam Lessin, General Partner at Slow Ventures, criticizes venture capital valuation discipline and psychology when pricing early-stage generative AI startups.
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“The problem with AI in general, and I think the entire AI discussion is I always like to point out, it's like the average of infinity and zero is infinity, right? And so VCs aren't very good at math, but they can do that one. And so the problem is you say, okay, this is so disruptive that even though the likely outcome is zero, because there's like no math you can do on this and mark it big, Then you're like, well, I'll pay anything. Cause maybe it's a thing. And like, I think that's actually what's going on in the industry a lot. I think it's quite bad because it leads to this like complete lack of like thoughtfulness and discipline.”
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