Nov 14, 2024 · 3h 11m · tbpn
Low T levels at Y-Combinator (ep9)
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this wide-ranging episode of Technology Brothers, hosts John Coogan and Jordy Hays analyze the convergence of defense tech modernization, shifting venture capital models, decentralized media influence, and founder mental health. Blending sharp tech analysis with signature humor, the hosts unpack viral social media discourse, post-ZIRP startup realities, and the cultural forces reshaping Silicon Valley.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 54% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.2 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 1.3 The hosts pushing back 1.7
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 2:47:10 Hays dismisses hustle-culture posting
Hays rejects the premise of founders publicly bragging about working 100-hour weeks, arguing genuine hard workers never tweet about their grind.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 21:00 Coogan rejects Lorenz premise on podcast biasCoogan challenges Taylor Lorenz's framing that podcasting is inherently right-wing, explaining technical RSS vs algorithmic YouTube differences.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 50:20 Hays outlines seed pricing competitionHays educates on why private equity structures fail in early-stage venture, showing how seed fund competition bids valuations up regardless of fundamentals.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:07:20 Coogan explains SpaceX modular engine designCoogan demonstrates deep aerospace knowledge, breaking down why Tom Mueller's modular Merlin engines enabled rapid SpaceX iterations over crane-dependent rivals.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Ramp Cards and Microplastics Exposure | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Coogan and Hays riff collaboratively on microplastics in credit cards, the Ramp card thesis for government spend, and Coogan's Hereticon talk covered by The Information. | |
| Analyzing the Male Podcast Boom with Taylor Lorenz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Coogan details his conversation with Taylor Lorenz about the male podcast ecosystem, citing specific viewer metrics, podcast reach numbers, and candidate media strategies. | |
| Platform Censorship, Tech Politics, and Candidate Styles | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Coogan analyzes the difference between algorithmic moderation on YouTube versus open RSS feeds on Apple Podcasts to explain platform political distribution. | |
| Sponsor Segment: Steinway & Sons Pianos | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Following a Steinway ad read, the hosts analyze a distressed founder's query, with Coogan giving tactical turnaround advice on enterprise networking. | |
| Timeline Analysis: Shitposting, Upper Midwest, and Arena | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts review community timeline tweets regarding shitposting, Midwestern geography, and Max Meyer's print publication Arena. | |
| Polymarket Rise and Avi Schiffman's Friend.com | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hays explore Polymarket's election volume, Avi Schiffman's hardware product Friend, and San Francisco's urban turnaround dynamics. | |
| Private Equity Structuring for Early-Stage Startups | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Hays and Coogan debate applying private equity structures and non-venture financing mechanics to hardware and early-stage manufacturing companies. | |
| IQ Enhancement, Tech Brain Rot, and CEO Tweeting Habits | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hays discuss cognitive performance businesses, FDA supplement regulations, and the optimal posting cadence for startup CEOs. | |
| Startup Marriage Jokes and Defense Tech Components | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Coogan details defense procurement jargon (COTS vs GOTS), Anduril's engineering philosophy, and rocket engine modularity across SpaceX and Blue Origin. | |
| Joe Rogan, UFC Culture, and Eliminating Procrastination | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Hays and Coogan humorously examine Joe Rogan's political evolution, UFC culture, and hyperbolic parenting philosophies around work ethic. | |
| Ridge Wallet Brand Strategy and Guerrilla Sidewalk Ads | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | The hosts break down Sean Frank's Ridge Wallet growth strategy, direct response marketing, and the legality of guerrilla sidewalk advertising. | |
| Manufacturing Culture and American Psycho Finance Lore | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hays discuss manufacturing content, American Psycho cultural lore, and the historical age profile of Wall Street executives. | |
| Office Culture, Banning Work Dinners, and DocuSign Memes | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Coogan presents his alternative work schedule theory (6-6-6 vs 9-9-6) and critiques corporate dinner culture and viral DocuSign memes. | |
| Supercar Engineering Appreciation and Hustle-Porn Posturing | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Coogan explains Gordon Murray's McLaren F1 engineering details, while both hosts mock performative social media hustle culture. | |
| VC Media Influence, Pitch Protocol, and 1600s Nutmeg Capital | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | The hosts debate venture capitalists acting as media entities, pitch meeting protocol, and the 17th-century whaling origins of carried interest. | |
| Solving Founder Burnout, Political Shifts, and Betting on TV | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Coogan and Hays discuss the root causes of founder burnout, Delian Asparouhov's political signaling arc, and interactive TV betting concepts. | |
| Startups at the Pentagon and Modernizing Government Tech | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Coogan provides deep context on defense tech infrastructure, Palantir's AIP software layer flipping Lockheed Martin, and Anduril's Lattice systems. | |
| Daylight Computer and the Rise of Retro Analog Hardware | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Hays discusses his angel investments in Daylight Computer and Allen Control Systems, explaining anti-drone turret testing in Texas. | |
| a16z Internal Carry Management and VC Institutionalization | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hays analyze Andreessen Horowitz hiring dedicated staff for carry management and evaluate tech journalism market value dynamics. | |
| The Low Testosterone Debate Returns to Y Combinator | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The hosts satirically analyze reported Y Combinator founder testosterone studies, government spare part overpricing, and Sequoia's X investment. | |
| Post-ZIRP SPAC Comebacks and Fintech Rebounds | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan gives financial context on post-ZIRP SPAC turnarounds (Dave Inc.), SaaS revenue resilience at scale, and onshore manufacturing tailwinds. | |
| Sam Altman's AGI Predictions and Gary Tan's Startup Optimism | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Coogan and Hays analyze AI hardware moat dynamics, Keith Raboy's fitness tweets, and Coogan's story of pitching a VC while playing PUBG. | |
| Elon Musk's Political Alignment and the Snub That Sparked It | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | The hosts break down the political origins of Elon Musk's partisan shift, followed by Coogan analyzing AI model scaling limits and gigawatt data centers. | |
| Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Election Day Ad Blitz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Coogan and Hays review Kalshi's election ad spend, Bill Gurley's valuation advice, macroeconomic sentiment indices, and closing monetization philosophy. |
Statements from this episode (66)
Hays: Harris Campaign Spent $1B Across Ramp and Other Payment Systems
“So, they blew through about a billion dollars in a few months almost unprecedented. I think, like, half a million of that went to payroll. But the big issue, they were on RAMP, but they were also using a variety of other, sort of, payment.”
Hays: The Information is becoming the tech industry's TMZ
“People literally realize that we're witnessing the birth of the TMZ for technology.”
Coogan: Startups seeking media attention should court hit pieces
“And I think that if you're a startup and you want attention, you want press, you should be courting hit pieces.”
Coogan: Too many tech billionaires are humorless and easily offended
“Too many tech billionaires are humorless, and they can't take a joke, and they get their feathers too ruffled when people come for them.”
Hays: Founders should appear on podcasts even with only 100 listeners
“If you get an opportunity to go on a podcast, even if it legitimately only has a hundred engaged listeners, it's worth doing because that's an hour of time that you get to spend talking to people that are going to totally digest like what you're doing, why it'…”
Coogan: Algorithmic Moderation Pushed Conservative Podcast Growth to RSS Over YouTube
“I think that a lot of the conservatives kind of kept growing very fast on RSS, whereas they were, they weren't able to grow as fast on YouTube.”
Hays: Tech Aligned with Republicans Because the Party Became More Pro-Technology
“It became obvious this election cycle that the Republican party was more oriented around technology, right? And big part of that is because some of the biggest donors to the Republican party are technologists, Peter Thiel Elon Musk. And so I think that a lot o…”
Hays: Male Podcast Right-Shift Was Driven by Business, Not Ideology
“The alignment and the sort of maybe shift right in the male podcast sphere, I think wasn't even political as much as it was a business orientation, right? Because it was just Almost a survival mechanism.”
Hays: $5M–$6M ARR growing 30% is not a venture-scale opportunity
“Five, six million of ARR growing 30, 30% a year. That is a good business under most evaluations, but it's not a venture scale opportunity anymore.”
Coogan: Zombie-stage startups can pursue acqui-hires and special situations deals
“People don't realize that like this, like, kind of zombie stage where you've done series A, series B, but never really hit escape velocity. Those two options still exist. It's probably just something more like an acquihire and more like a special situations de…”
Hays: Shitposting is serious and shapes the cultural zeitgeist
“Shit posting gets shit posted about a lot, but it's serious, right? It creates trend. It sort of influences the zeitgeist and it helps us better understand the world.”
Coogan: Polymarket captured 80% to 90% of 2024 election betting liquidity
“I think they got like, 80%, 90% liquidity on, around the election. Just complete power law outcome.”
Hays: San Francisco Will Benefit Massively From Local and Federal Momentum
“You've had Gary
Focus deeply on San Francisco and having San Francisco you know, making a lot of positive progress on, on on things simultaneously having new momentum at the federal level, San Francisco is going to benefit massively from both of those trends.”
Hays: Investors Should Buy SF Real Estate to Recapture Startup Capital
“No, but I think one way to go long technology is to go long SF. That's what Gary's done. And if you want to benefit from that boom, fund the startups, but then buy up all the real estate. So you sort of recapture some of that
Value, because a lot of founders' …”
Hays: Early-stage seed fund competition lowers returns and blocks PE-style structuring
“It's hard to do PE styles early stage because there's just so much, so many different people that will give you that Three on 15 or two on 10 or two on 20. And I think that competition just drives up prices and ultimately lowers returns.”
Coogan: Top growth VC funds operate under a strict 'no zeros' mandate
“A lot of the great growth funds right now have a no zeros mandate. Like they won't invest in something if there's any risk that it goes to zero, and then they're underwriting against like a 20% IRR.”
Hays Discloses Making 50 Angel Bets Despite Known Flaws in Teams or Businesses
“Which I've across like 50 angel bets. I've done that before where I'm like, I see some issues with this business, but I like the founder, so I'll do it. Or the team is not, is maybe like a seven out of 10, but like the products at 10 out of 10, let's do it any…”
Coogan: FDA rules prohibit combining caffeine and nicotine in gum
“Because of the way the FDA regulates these products, it's very hard for us. Like we can't put caffeine in our gum that has nicotine in it. You can't mix actives, but if you're more of like a health clinic, you could actually prescribe caffeine, nicotine differ…”
Hays: Great social media posting signals ability to win customers and capital
“If you can, Post bangers. It is a proxy for your ability to get attention, which can drive customers and capital and all these things.”
Hays: Frequent CEO posting is a red flag unless selling to startups
“I think that if I see a portfolio company CEO's name four times in the timeline per day, and they're not selling to venture backed startups. Risky. It's a big, it's kind of a bit of a red flag.”
Coogan: Anduril built early sensor towers with off-the-shelf gaming GPUs
“They built this sensor tower, and they were using literally, like, off-the-shelf gaming NVIDIA GPUs to run open-source, like, computer vision algorithms, like ImageNet, and so it was very much, like, hacked together from literally stuff you could buy at, like,…”
Coogan: US has only one tin smelter supplying 5% of demand
“Apparently there's only one tin smelting Like organization in the United States and they are only able to supply like, you know, five percent of the tin.”
Coogan: Hard tech startups gain major arbitrage decomposing mega-projects
“When you start doing these mega projects, things really, really slow down. And so there's a, it seems like there's a lot of arbitrage right now in just deep tech, hard tech startups taking something really huge and then decomposing it into something that's mor…”
Hays: UFC will replace baseball as America's pastime within four years
“Because I think that by the end of the next four years, UFC will be baseball will have to have sort of stepped aside. No longer America's pastime. America's pastime is combat and combat sports.”
Hays: Ridge Spent Around $250M on Meta Ads Before Collaborating with MKBHD
“Ridge basically had spent probably two hundred and fifty million dollars on meta ads before they ever did a collaboration with like MK. MKBHD.”
Coogan: Sponsoring a Curated Roster of Influencers Defines Your Brand
“If you're thinking about building your brand, just put together a mood board of popular influencers, and then just go and sponsor them, and then that will be your brand.”
Coogan: Silicon Valley Enables Rapid Youth Advancement Unlike Manhattan Finance
“Wall Street was definitely this idea that you could go to Wall Street and finance in New York and in your twenties, make it to the top. And that's at 100% true in Silicon Valley in tech, even today. But I don't think it's been true in Manhattan finance for dec…”
Hays: Young Investors Must Launch Their Own Funds to Generate Wealth
“If you're 28 and you want to make fifty million dollars now, you raise a five hundred million dollar fund with your absolute boy, and you take, you know, that's how, that's the only way to do it. You can't just go do the right deals because the fees will get e…”
Hays: A 'Hire American' Movement Will Emerge Over Next 20 Years
“There will be this sort of cultural movement over the next 20 years where people are like, you know, first it was bi-American, then now it'll be like, hire American, like, keep those jobs here.”
Hays: Work Dinners Should Only Occur for Celebratory Deal Closings
“The only time you should be having A work dinner is if you're closing a deal. Like, funds wired, everything's done. Celebratory, right? Doing a work work dinner. To get to know somebody is a waste of time.”
Hays: People who brag online about working hard do not work hard
“I've never known somebody that posts about how hard they work that actually genuinely works hard. And so. ... But yeah, ultimately, the people that work the hardest are not tweeting about it. They're not posting on LinkedIn. They're not doing that.”
Hays: Venture Capitalists Need Media Presence and Likability for Access
“Venture's all about likability and access, right? And like, likability, likability plus attention gets you that access. And founders want to take money from people that they like. So if you're a likable person, you should be doing more media, more posting, mor…”
Hays: Founders Should Take Initial Investor Calls Solo to Build Rapport
“You can't, two people cannot connect. Like if we had a third person here that was constantly butting in, like our rhythm would be totally thrown off. And yeah, I think that it's much, you're much better off. Take the first call solo, take even a second call so…”
Hays: Founder Burnout Stems From Failing Products or Team Issues
“Burnout is a symptom that what you're working on is not working.
Like, it's rare, or you're having, like, massive people issues.”
Hays: Y Combinator Found Wealthy Founders Have Higher Success Rates
“I think YC did an analysis on their portfolio
and they found that founders that came from money had a higher likelihood of success”
Hays: Crypto The Game Bootstrapped and Sold to Uniswap in 6 Months
“He ended up starting this interactive on-chain crypto game that went super, super viral and within six, he didn't raise any money within six months, sold it
To Uniswap”
Coogan: Microsoft has a moral duty to modernize government software pro bono
“Microsoft, like, go in and pro bono get the government on the latest and greatest software. Like, just do whatever that work is instead of just continuing to start to charge XP licenses. Like, you have some sort of, like, moral duty. This is your way that you …”
Hays: Subscale defense startups will eventually be absorbed by Palantir and Anduril
“The companies that don't quite make it, but build some great technology will eventually get absorbed by Palantir and Andruil, and then they get the benefit of all that sort of capex and investment in technology.”
Hays: Palantir's market cap has officially surpassed Lockheed Martin
“They just flipped Lockheed Martin, which is crazy.”
Hays: Allen Control Systems built a fully autonomous anti-drone turret
“And so ACS has built this phenomenal product that can take out drones fully autonomously.”
Hays: ACS founder Steve Simone will be the Travis Kalanick of defense
“I think I think he's the, gonna be look back as the TK of defense. Like, he's like one of one individual”
Coogan: 'Pre-made' startup teams stacked with veteran operators have an unfair advantage
“And when I think about the teams that show up with startups, like. Yeah, like, and are all very much a premade in the sense that you have Palmer, but then you also have, like, three Palantir executives. It's like, how is that not gonna be successful? They real…”
Hays: a16z hiring internal carry managers signals preparations for an IPO
“And I, to me, the signal is like, we're getting ready to go public, right? Like, it's one thing when it's just the GPs, and they're sort of managing carry internally.”
Coogan: Sequoia is structured to take long and short public market positions
“You know, Sequoia, they're set up to take long and short positions in the public markets.”
Hays: Newcomer Is Paying $350K to Hire Tech Journalists
“I think I saw newcomers paying like 350 K to hire journalists.”
Hays: Study links higher founder testosterone to more venture capital raised
“I, the positive thing from that study though, is that it seemed like the more venture capital the founders raised, the higher their T levels were.”
Hays: Parents readily pay top dollar for educational, screen-free products
“So parents will spend a lot of money for something like this. In general, parents will pay for anything educational pretty quickly for their kids.”
Hays: Sequoia Will Make Money on Its X Investment in 10 Years
“I would be willing to bet my house that they'll make money on this investment in 10 years.”
Coogan: Dave traded for $50M despite having $150M in cash
“I'm pretty sure they were trading for like, fifty million dollars, and they had like, a hundred and fifty million in cash.”
Coogan: SPACs will return for certain companies pretty soon
“I fully anticipate SPACs will be back for certain companies pretty soon.”
Coogan: Defense and AI Markets Could Yield Multiple $100B Winners
“I think we could see the same thing play out in defense. I think we could see the same thing play out in AI.”
Hays: Anduril alumni will spin out to build domestic manufacturing shops
“And the downstream effects of a company like Anderil over time having thousands and thousands of employees are that those thousands of employees experience all these small little pain points throughout different product cycles. And then they go out and say lik…”
Coogan: Defense manufacturing boom will spawn new appliance and hardware startups
“They're not gonna be able to in-source all of that, and then there's also just gonna be the dividend of, you know, manufacturing and hard tech outside of defense. I mean, I think we talked about the impulse stove. It's like a hardware company. It's never going…”
Hays: Boys' nights counter founder burnout and provide business clarity
“And boys' nights are a good way to counter burnout, right? Because burnout's usually a symptom of something not working in your business, but if you hang out with your boys, they can help give you that clarity, gas you up, give you that extra conviction to kee…”
Hays: Rebuilding Salesforce today could last five years before disruption
“Trying to rebuild Salesforce right now could be an amazing business for five years, and then you get completely disrupted.”
Coogan: VCs Should Post About Politics to Test Board Alignment
“I think that posting about politics is actually great for VCs because you want to know what you're getting yourself into at the board dinner.”
Coogan: Pitched Blake Robbins at Benchmark while playing PUBG
“One of my favorite pitches with a VC that I ever did was with Blake Robbins when he was at Benchmark, and
And we played PUBG together.”
Coogan: Gaming and sports expose founder character better than coffee meetings
“There's a lot of ways to expose the truth about someone through that. It's much better than just a coffee meeting, which is just vanilla.”
Hays: Musk's Political Push Stemmed from Disrespect and Business Scale
“He, everything we just saw over the past however many months was just a reaction to being disrespected. As A person as a businessman, and it was almost a, with his level of ambition, it was a, it was something that he needed to do to reach his full potential b…”
Coogan: Only OpenAI and Hyperscalers Can Build Gigawatt Data Centers
“OpenAI is the most well-funded, and so they're the ones, other than the hyperscalers, they're the ones that can actually go and build, like, the gigawatt data center, which is, like, a new thing that needs to be built. It, like, physically needs to exist befor…”
Hays: Passive income is a myth because management is always required
“Passive income isn't real. If you're getting income, there's some level of management that comes with it. And even if you hire somebody to manage said income, like a CEO or an asset manager, things like that, you still have to manage that person.”
Coogan: El Segundo Defense Tech Ecosystem Started as Counter-Cultural and Independent
“The gundo really was like very punk rock and very counter-cultural and very independent. And very not an industry plant.”
Coogan: Longevity and Bio Could Be Startups' Next Punk Rock Frontier
“I do think longevity and bio could be next.”
Coogan: US Economy Remained Fundamentally Strong Post-ZIRP Despite Negative Sentiment
“During the post Zerp crash and the recession, like the fundamental Economic drivers of the American economy were very strong, but if you asked people that consumer sentiment, they would all say, it's not working for me, it's not doing well, and so this was ter…”
Coogan: Market is starting to move on energy for AI infrastructure
“Energy is, like, clearly the next thing, and it's been a little bit of a champagne or a cocktail position in the sense that people talk about it at cocktail parties. Oh, energy's gonna be really important. Sam Altman's investing in it, but the market hasn't re…”