Opinion
The Winklevoss Twins Deserve More Credit for Reinventing Themselves in Crypto
“They do not get enough credit for reinventing themselves. And running it back. Like a massive way. And it's honestly, if companies like Coinbase were not so dominant. From a narrative standpoint, they would get even more credit.”
Assertion Supported
Rockbridge Network Charges Up to $1M for Principal Partners
“Rockbridge has grown significantly. They used to let Prospective members attend for just 5000. Now it's 25,000, although some people said privately that they had been able to get in for less. The cost to be a limited partner is a hundred K and the cost to be a…”
Assertion Supported
Odoo Announced a €500 Million Secondary Investment at a €5 Billion Valuation
“Fabian Pinkhares is announcing a five hundred million, ooh, million? I was gonna say dollars, but then I caught the symbol here, five hundred million euro investment in UDU at a five billion euro valuation. Which has been led by Capital G and Sequoia Capital a…”
Opinion
The Four Seasons and Ritz-Carlton Have Degraded Dramatically in Quality
“You can go very wrong with just about every Four Seasons and every Ruiz Carlton in the world now. Those brands have gone downhill pretty dramatically.”
Assertion Supported
Tesla Provides Instant Online Quotes for 100MWh Megapack Systems
“You can literally get a quote for a hundred megawatt hour Tesla Megapack system online without speaking to a human.”
Assertion Supported
Tesla Megapack orders placed in late 2024 show Q3 2025 delivery timeline
“At this point, if you order today you can get a delivery in Q three, 20, 25.”
Assertion Supported
Perplexity Launched an AI-Native Competitor to Google Shopping
“They launched their competitor to Google Shopping, and it's just much more AI native, much more driven by, take a picture.”
Insight
VCs Should Spend 1% of Their Fund's AUM on a Personal Car
“If you're a venture capitalist, take one percent of your AUM and that is the budget that you should use for your daily driver.”
Insight
Concretizing an Investment Playbook Destroys All Alpha
“Everyone wants a pattern or a playbook that they can, and that's the stuff that normally does really well on social media, is like, just do this checklist, just build this model, and this will deliver results, but as soon as you can concretize it, You lose all…”
Disclosure
Jordy Hays Decided His Best Pre-Seed Investment in Three Minutes
“My best pre-seed investment ever. Is a company where when I met the CEO, you know, within literally probably three minutes of talking, I knew I wanted to invest. I knew the company would work and sort of get to the level of traction that it has.”
Assertion Supported
Y Combinator Does Not Avoid Investing in Direct Competitors
“Why sees a mafia? Like they will crown a champion and then they will never do a deal in that space again. And it's kind of like the exact opposite. Totally not true.”
Insight
Market Competition Benefits Startups Once They Reach Breakout Power-Law Scale
“At a certain point, like once you have the formula dialed in and you are the power law company, the competition is actually beneficial to you.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Startup Traba Relocated to Ramp's Office to Work Through Soho Fire
“Large fire breaks out on Soho rooftop, and the, and they got press around this because they kept working, and it says FDNY, Hottest startup in NYC, Traba, stays locked in despite fire. I love that they called NBC New York and got this done. It's amazing. And t…”
Opinion
The US Must Act as a Talent Magnet to Brain-Drain Foreign Countries
“We need to acquire, we need to be a talent magnet. We need to brain drain all the un-American companies, all the un-American countries. Need to be brain drained.”
Insight
The Updated X Algorithm Pushes Post Engagement to Extreme Variance
“And it's easier than ever, given the new X algorithm, because it, everything is getting more pushed out to the edges of the curve, essentially. Like, you will have a post that goes mega viral, and then the next one will get 26 likes.”
Insight
Great Ventures Often Require Skirting the Law to Succeed
“Great things oftentimes have to sort of skirt the law.”
Opinion
The Porsche Collaboration Provided More Value to Aimé Leon Dore
“I think this does more for ALD than it does for Portia.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Porsche's Aimé Leon Dore Campaign Was Not a Response to Jaguar
“Porsche launched this ALD one that looks very retro, very like classic. And so people were immediately like, oh, Porsche gets it. And it's like, they do, but it wasn't, this wasn't an answer to Jaguar. That's not how these firms work.”
Insight
Most Founders Should Spend Considerably More Time Thinking Before Starting
“Ideas are not worthless. Most people should spend considerably more time thinking about what to work on before they start. And I couldn't agree with more, more with that.”
Insight
Asking an Investor to Sign an NDA Signals a Startup Will Fail
“It is the most negative signal when you talk to a founder, and they're, like, cagey about their idea, or they're like, oh, like, I mean, I still, like, maybe three times a year will take a meeting with a company, and they try to get me to sign an NDA, and I'm …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A Top Founder Will Eventually Make Pre-Pitch NDAs a Status Symbol
“I do think this is gonna be a pendulum swing thing, though, and eventually there's gonna be the Chad founder who forces everyone to sign NDAs and makes it very embarrassing to the firms and degrades them, and it becomes a status symbol.”
Assertion Supported
Jai Malik Returned Fund Capital Over High Early-Stage Valuations
“He actually had a fund and decided to return capital at one point because he felt like everything was too overvalued at the early stage.”
Opinion
Automation and Humanoid Robotics Are the Path to US Re-Industrialization
“I do think that there's an interesting thesis I heard that the path to real re-industrialization in America is not Not through trying to play the last war, but instead focusing on the next war, which is humanoid robotics, and if we really get that right, and w…”
Opinion
Inbox Zero Is the Worst Productivity Target to Pursue
“This is why inbox zero is like, there's the worst thing to go for because inbox zero.”
Insight
Marking Cold Sales Emails as Spam Trains Google's Algorithm Against Senders
“I've since moved to just the Gmail spam button because if you hit that, it blocks the sender and it also sends the message to the Google algorithm that like this company sucks, which I like.”
Insight
Companies Should Over-Invest in Interns to Identify Future Leaders
“Interns are not about getting output from the actual work that they do over the summer. It's about mentorship, evaluation, figuring out who the next generation of leaders will be at your firm, so. Highly recommend over-investing in your intern programs.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lulu Cheng Meservey's Anti-Woke Substack Recruiting Post Reached 100 Million Views
“Well, it's because they took a very contrarian position on free speech. And Lulu had that insanely viral recruiting post. Do you remember this? She was like when Elon bought Twitter, She said, if you have a problem with Elon bringing free speech to Twitter, do…”
Opinion
Companies Facing Crises Should Hire Lulu Cheng Meservey
“She was at, she was involved with Activision, which went through a bunch of crazy stuff. She was involved with Substack, so it's like, hire, hire her if you want to, like, drive through the fire, not if you want to, like, you know, try to get around it, right?”
Opinion
Elon Musk Cut 80% of Staff and X Runs Better Than Before
“Elon cut 80% of X and it runs better than it did before.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA's Q3 2024 Net Income Surpassed Its Total Q3 2023 Revenue
“NVIDIA's Q three, 20, 24 net income is higher than their Q three, 20, 23 revenue.”
Opinion
Investors Have Stopped Analyzing NVIDIA's Fundamentals Due to Meme Status
“I think NVIDIA has become such a meme that people have stopped actually analyzing the underlying business fundamentals. And they're just focused on like the market cap.”
Opinion
Heavy European Regulation Threatens to Destroy Legacy Automakers
“The biggest risk right now with the way that Europe is run is that they're trying to destroy the legacy car manufacturers by nannying them”
Assertion Supported
Posts Containing External Links Get Suppressed by the X Algorithm
“And they have to share the link. So that means that they get crushed on Axe because you can't share links.”
Insight
Early-Stage Startups Should Not Attract Interns Seeking Corporate Perks
“That's an example of like when you're Stripe and you have a fifty billion dollar market cap, yes, invest in your internship program. When you're Crossman and you're trying to be the next Stripe don't try to attract interns that are there for the perks, right?”
Assertion Supported
GLP-1 Users Must Lift Heavy and Maintain a High-Protein Diet
“I think Huberman was talking about this a little bit, like muscle loss is a big thing generally with these drugs, but that's why you got to be lifting heavy and on a high protein diet while you take them.”
Insight
Ideas-Guy CEOs Face a Trap Chasing Novelty Over Repetitive Execution
“I think if you're an ideas guy CEO, this can be, there's a real trap where you're trying to, like, think of the next new exciting novel thing when really you just need to do the boring thing over and over and over for years.”
Insight
Generating Novel Ideas Is a Function of Consistently Testing Concepts
“The novel idea is a function of consistency. Like a lot of the ideas guys that we know and talk about have lots of ideas and they are consistent with their ability to create new ideas and then test them in the real world.”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy's Stock Returned to Its All-Time High in November 2024
“MicroStrategy is back to their all-time high as of, like, last week.”
Opinion
MicroStrategy Is Essentially a Bitcoin ETF Trading at 3x Book Value
“It is basically a Bitcoin ETF that trades at a three X to book value.”
Opinion
Making Frontier AI Models 5% Smarter Is Almost Certainly Economically Worthwhile
“I think it's almost certainly worth it to be five percent smarter on these models, and I think that the economics are much easier, which is why the market's ripping so much.”
Opinion
Sam Altman Doesn't Lose Money and Can Be Trusted With Trillions
“I trust him with the money. Let him do it. He doesn't lose money. There's very few people in that league, but he's one of them.”
Insight
Work-Life Balance Promoters on Twitter Are Tricking Their Competitors Into Working Less
“I've long said that the work-life balance promoters on Twitter are just doing the game theoretic optimal strategy, which is tell all your competitors to take long vacations, not work hard.”
Opinion
Running a Hedge Fund and Major Crypto Exchange Simultaneously Makes Zero Sense
“Why is a guy running a hedge fund and running one of the biggest exchanges at the same time? Like, it just. Makes zero sense. Like, it just seems like very wrong.”
Insight
The Hardware and Ink Sales Combo Makes Printers a Great Business
“It's a great business model. You sell a piece of hardware and then you sell the ink.”
Opinion
Jaguar Is a Fantastic Legacy Brand Being Run Into the Ground
“Jaguar's, you know, fantastic legacy brand that's being run into the ground.”
Insight
Branding Agency Creative Directors Often Prioritize Awards Over Client Strategy
“The issue is that these branding agencies, there are certain creative directors within them that want to win awards. And that is not always aligned with the company's strategy, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Dude Perfect Invested Over $100 Million in Their Entertainment Theme Park
“They recently opened up this like massive, like, it's like a theme park. I think the investment is like over a hundred million dollars on this huge,”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VPN Businesses Have Extremely High Margins and Compete Purely on Marketing
“You want to sell something that's differentiated only on the marketing. It's already big on YouTube. Every ad is for VPNs, extremely high margin, extremely low churn.”
Assertion Partly supported
A Single Eastern European Holding Group Owns Most Online VPN Brands
“I actually heard that there's just like basically one group in Eastern Europe that has hovered up a lot. So like, When you see a VPN ad for one thing or another, it's like the same end owner.”
Insight
Major Digital Creators Face an Inevitable Lifecycle of Deification and Backlash
“There is something interesting where all of these creators go through this hero's journey where they're deified and then eventually torn down. Mr. Beast recently went through that.”
Opinion
Leaders Learn More From Machiavelli's The Prince Than The 4-Hour Workweek
“You can learn more from the prince than from four hour work week.”
Assertion Supported
Secondary Liquidity for Seven Private Startups Surpassed All 2023-2024 Tech IPOs
“There was more money flowing into secondaries. For Figma, Rippling, Canva, Revolut, CoreWeave, Databricks, and Stripe, then all of the tech IPOs in twenty-twenty-three to twenty-twenty-four.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most Venture Capital Returns Are Generated by Approximately Ten Companies
“Most of the returns generated from venture are like 10 companies.”
Opinion
Private Markets Are Structurally Retooling to Keep Tech Companies Private
“The private markets are retooling to keep companies private.”
Assertion Supported
El Salvador's $268 Million Bitcoin Treasury Position Reached $573 Million
“He bought two hundred and sixty eight million dollars worth of Bitcoin, and it's now worth Five hundred and seventy three million.”
Insight
Liquid Retail Assets Create Counterproductive Distractions for Early-Career Professionals
“One big problem with liquid assets is they command a lot of attention, right? When you have your Robin Hood or your Coinbase or your whatever kind of going up and down on a day to day basis, there's this idea that you should sort of fixate on it and like try t…”
Opinion
There Are 50,000 Jobs at Big Tech Companies That Do Not Need to Exist
“I still think there's like 50,000 tech jobs that like probably don't need to exist at these sort of big, bigger public or sort of scale ups.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
In-Person Deals Will Command a Premium Once AI Automates Sales
“When every company has an army of AI agents that are coding and selling relationships, relationships are gonna have a lot of value, like being able to call up somebody at another company and get a deal done, like just very old fashioned, like do a power lunch …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Governments Will Expand Bullshit Administrative Jobs Instead of Implementing UBI
“You can think about a lot of the government as just a wealth transfer, and the, but the way we transfer the money is not through the Andrew Yang UBI strategy, it's instead through a bullshit job. And I don't know if that's gonna go away. I think that might jus…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Voice-Prompted Visual AI Storytelling Will Become a Major Consumer Product
“I think it'll end up being, like, there's a huge consumer product to be built where somebody, you just, like, talk into your phone, say something, and it just, like, generates, like, an entire visual, like, story of, like, that
Thing because it's like very muc…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Generating 30 Seconds of AI Video Will Be Mainstream Within a Year
“But it's going to be such a colossal, colossal leap from generating an image to generating 30 seconds of video, which is less than a year, like, a year out until it's, like, very mainstream.”
Opinion
Attending Business School Does Not Effectively Prepare Founders for Entrepreneurship
“Going to business school to become an entrepreneur is like reading a book about basketball history because you want to join the NBA. I agree.”
Insight
The Primary Value of Startup Fundraise PR Is Alerting Future Investors
“I do think that fundraising announcements are like just an easy launch that companies can use to get attention from real value is like notifying the next rounds investors that I'm here.”
Opinion
SEC Chair Gary Gensler Prevented the Cryptocurrency Industry From Innovating
“He sort of made the entire cryptocurrency industry not be able to innovate and actually create, like, a lot of products that would otherwise be valuable to people.”
Opinion
The Hardware Industry Needs a New Startup to Disrupt Printers
“We need great printers. We need a new printer startup. We need Apple to build a printer. We need more competition.”
Insight
Physical Print Media Is Superior to Digital Feeds Due to Permanence
“I like printed stuff. It's more tactile. You can mark it up. You can take notes. It's less ethereal, and it goes in the stack, and this post will be immortalized in the stack of printed posts forever.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The Defense Tech Boom Was Fueled by Founders Leaving Crypto Speculation
“And it was a big shift from like the defense tech boom, the gundo boom. A lot of those guys had had rough goes in like the Wi-Fi money era, realized it was not very durable, very zero sum, and moved over to something that was more tangible.”
Insight
Startup Illiquidity Shields Founders From the Distraction of Daily Price Fluctuations
“I think illiquidity is a feature, just like, you know the fact that you can go and do your job every day and not be constantly getting marked is, is a great blessing, because it allows you to focus on”
Assertion Contradicted
Major Banks Offer 60% Valuation Buyouts for Government Appointees' Illiquid Shares
“I did hear a incredible financial innovation. I think it's from JP Morgan or Goldman is one of those two. They offer a service where if you're taking a government post and you need to divest assets, they will basically buy it at like 60% of like the last mark.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Treasury secretaries must divest all assets completely tax-free
“I mean, that's the thing with the treasury secretary, right? They have to sell everything and they don't get taxed on it.”
Opinion
The SEC Rarely Uncovers Scams First, Relying Instead on Internet Sleuths
“It's very rarely, oh, the SEC got to it first. It's usually the investigative journalist, the YouTuber, the Twitter, the posters, and then the SEC has to follow up, and it was just, like, this is completely the wrong model.”
Opinion
Betting on Which Startup Becomes Most Valuable Is a Great Polymarket Use Case
“This is a good use case for Polymarket. You should be able to bet on what is the most, like, what's going to be like the most valuable company.”
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Michael Steeber's New Startup Will Raise $10 Million at $50 Million
“If I had to bet, 10 on 50.”
Insight
Illiquid General Partners Can Pledge Management Fees to Satisfy Capital Commitments
“If you're a GP, you can effectively commit part of the, what would be your management fee back to the fund, which can kind of make up for you know, if you're not super liquid and don't have whatever. That five to 10% to invest back into the fund can leverage t…”
Opinion
Investors Should Not Launch a Venture Fund Before Achieving Major Wins
“I don't think you should start a fund if you know, get some big wins under your belt before you really go big.”
Opinion
Stablecoins Are Ideal for Executing Trustless After-Hours Peer-to-Peer Transactions
“If you're trying to, you know, make any type of major transaction peer to peer after hours and want to do so in a trustless way, stable coins are a fantastic way to do that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Everyday Consumers' First Non-Speculative Crypto Use Will Be Large Purchases
“I can actually see that happening where somebody's first time like really using crypto other than to speculate is like making a big purchase like a car.”
Opinion
Most Big Brand Agencies Scale by Charging $500,000 for Copy-Pasted Slop
“I mean, the main problem with Ryan and day job is that he hasn't done the blood sucking scale up that most other brand agencies have, where he's just producing slop, but charging 500 K a project for basically just Copy, paste of the Figma file.”
Opinion
Tech Founders Choose Watches That Match Their Specific Industry Domain
“Tech bros are anti-memetic. Like we do not want to have a one size fits all. We don't want every tech bro wearing all birds. We don't want every tech bro wearing the exact same Nautilus. We want a piece, a hitter on the wrist that speaks to what you're doing. …”
Insight
Tech Workers Will Gain Advantage by Wearing Tailored Suits Over Casualwear
“There's just huge alpha and wearing, simply wearing a suit, right? If you're in technology, take off the Allbirds, throw on some loafers. Get a tailored suit. Wear it to work. I guarantee you'll stand out.”
Assertion Supported
Approximately 300,000 Podcasts Have Published an Episode in the Last Month
“There's like. 300,000 ish podcasts that have published at all in the last month.”
Insight
Making the Definitive Best Video on a Big Topic Drives Consistent Virality
“That's what I noticed on YouTube was like at a certain point, it's like pick a big topic. And make the best video about that topic. And it would always go viral.”