Nov 16, 2024 · 1h 49m · tbpn
What is the TRUMP BUBBLE? (ep11)
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In this episode of Technology Brothers, hosts John Coogan and Jordy Hayes analyze Packy McCormick's 'Trump Bubble' thesis, exploring how regulatory reform, macro optimism, and venture capital momentum are accelerating technology, crypto, and hard tech innovation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 51.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.3 Guest teaching 2.0 Guest disagreement 1.0 The hosts pushing back 1.1
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:15:16 Pushback on closed SaaS IPO window
Hayes challenges the gloomy SaaS narrative by pointing out that lower-tier private companies with mediocre growth simply do not deserve to go public.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 1:15:38 Reframing IPO expectationsCoogan directly counters the idea that SaaS employees should despair, arguing they should see this moment as an opening to double down and grind for upcoming liquidity.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 4:27 Explaining Hobart's bubble frameworkHayes systematically details the five core characteristics of mega-project bubbles from Byrne Hobart's book, educating listeners and grounding the discussion.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:38:34 Warby Parker brand development breakdownCoogan demonstrates deep marketing expertise by detailing how Warby Parker used an internal brand essence to guide architecture, typography, and web design.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyzing Packy McCormick's Trump Bubble Thesis | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan contextualizes Packy McCormick's thesis with his own historical experience entering Silicon Valley in 2012 during earlier bubble warnings. Hayes frames the core ideas of the Trump bubble and risk-on sentiment in the market. | |
| Byrne Hobart's Bubble Dynamics and Government Efficiency | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Hayes summarizes Byrne Hobart's five characteristics of historical bubbles from Boom. Coogan connects government projects like Apollo and the Manhattan project to modern corporate dynamics. | |
| Reforming Government Agencies and the Trump Pump | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Coogan details comparative governance models, citing Chinese talent compulsion versus American market incentives and the power law of Silicon Valley talent. He also proposes rebranding the essay as the Trump Pump. | |
| Bringing Nicotine Pouches to Airport Retail | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Coogan demonstrates deep regulatory and historical industry knowledge explaining why nicotine pouches are excluded from domestic airport retail due to tobacco retail licensing and cabin nuisance rules. | |
| Celebrating One Thousand Followers with Dom Pérignon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | The hosts engage in celebratory banter while popping champagne to mark reaching one thousand followers on X. | |
| Listener DM on Faking Accredited Investor Status | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Coogan jokes about demanding a 200k salary before clarifying the legal implications of accredited investor rules, while Hayes details platform liability versus individual risk. | |
| Comparing Cultures of the Holy Trinity VC Firms | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan breaks down the cultural and operational distinctions between Founders Fund, Sequoia, and Kleiner Perkins, explaining partner autonomy, dark Sequoia branding, and historical portfolios. | |
| Venture Capital Fund Mechanics and SVB Reflections | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan explains fund mechanics, capital calls, and LP commitments in response to a listener asking where VC firms hold cash, followed by reflections on SVB. | |
| Ramp's Organic SaaS Fandom and Engineering Culture | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Coogan analyzes Ramp's brand positioning around engineering excellence, drawing parallels to Jeff Dean at Google, while Hayes describes Ramp's engineering-led marketing strategy. | |
| El Segundo Hard Tech and Rainmaker Hiring | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hayes discuss hard tech culture in El Segundo, noting how founders successfully transitioned from constant Twitter posting to high-leverage PR. | |
| AI Video Clipping, Historic Risk, and Market Maps | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Coogan discusses venture risk profiles, distinguishing between genuine power-law venture capital and conservative growth equity aiming for modest IRRs. | |
| Blue-Collar Tech Realities and Anduril Merch | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Hayes highlights the growing economic value of specialized trade work over commoditized web development, and the hosts discuss defense tech merchandise branding. | |
| European Cookie Regulations and Big Tech Friction | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan critiques European cookie consent banners and analogizes the friction between Apple and Meta hardware integrations to bickering divorced parents. | |
| Waymo Self-Defense and Real-Time LLMs | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan examines Waymo's testing strategy in San Francisco versus Arizona, and evaluates Grok's real-time strengths against competitor LLMs. | |
| Crypto Market Momentum and Systemic Risk Warnings | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan outlines the macroeconomic forces of sovereign debt, highlighting how democratic elections incentivize real economic growth over inflationary debasement. | |
| Private SaaS IPO Backlog and Dogecoin Mania | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Coogan pushes back on pessimistic interpretations of private unicorn backlog and recounts the origins of Dogecoin as an anti-crypto parody. | |
| Optimism in Tech and the Cartier Tank Legacy | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Coogan details the cross-cultural history of the Cartier Tank, explaining how it bridged disparate cultural icons like Jackie Kennedy, Muhammad Ali, and Andy Warhol. | |
| Product Taste and Hawk Tuah's AI Dating App | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan and Hayes debate the value of AI wrapper applications, arguing that creator audience capture creates legitimate affiliate monetization opportunities. | |
| Elon's Wealth, Nicotine Chemistry, and AI Agents | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts playfully analyze the net worth disparity between Elon Musk and George Soros, and read satirical social media commentary about Coogan's nicotine company. | |
| NYC Coffee Woes and Startup Design Excellence | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan shares historical insights from his Summer 2012 YC batch alongside Coinbase and discusses Gary Tan's design work on early startup identities. | |
| YC Satellite Founders and Multimillion-Dollar GPT Wrappers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The hosts discuss young founders building satellites and evaluate the unit economics of simple GPT wrappers driving millions in monthly revenue. | |
| Demos over Decks and Timeless Brand Essences | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Coogan details Warby Parker's foundational branding concept of the literary life and explains how a clear internal brand essence informs every architectural and design choice. | |
| Washington Fit Checks, Kalshi Drama, and New York Phil | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Hayes and Coogan compare the regulatory and organic growth strategies of Kalshi versus Polymarket in the prediction market arena. | |
| Biomarker Tracking, Grand Ambitions, and Radical Hiring | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Coogan names contemporary hard tech and industrial base founders before closing the episode with a call to apply gaming focus to business modeling. |
Statements from this episode (27)
Coogan: Macro business cycles matter more than individual frothy valuations
“There were some minor sell offs, but like for the most part, like going long through that period was like the phenomenal strategy. And so even when it's frothy, like the business cycle is more of a, like a massive driver than, like, any specific, like, bubbly …”
Coogan: Crypto market will go crazy once high leverage returns
“When, once that comes in, it's going to be insane.”
Hayes: Trump administration risk-taking could create the 'mother of all bubbles'
“And what that is leading to is people in the markets also going extremely risk on, right? Simultaneously, everybody's going super risk on which could create the mother of all bubbles, which we've been praying for.”
Coogan: Silicon Valley Alpha Came from Backing 19-Year-Old Founders
“A huge portion of the alpha that was generated in Silicon Valley from the year 2000 onward was literally just saying, yeah, it doesn't matter if you're a 19 year old kid, we can, we trust you with a million dollars to go build something.”
Hayes: Faking accredited investor status risks the platform, not the investor
“It's actually much less of an issue for the individual. I don't think Mickey's going to get in trouble for doing this. It really comes down to the company.”
Hayes: Breaking into top VC firms is statistically harder than the NBA
“It is harder to break into the Holy Trinity than the NBA.”
Hayes: Calling entire VC fund capital upfront harms LP investment performance
“And the reason, so the reason that, that, that, that is important is it increases the performance of the fund, right? So if you call the billion dollars, if you have a billion dollar fund, you call that capital on day one but then you deploy it over four to fi…”
Coogan: Byrne Hobart broke the Silicon Valley Bank balance sheet story early
“And our buddy who we mentioned before, Bryn Hobart, was the one who, like, deep dove SVB early and broke the story, essentially. That, like, their balance sheet was messed up.”
Hayes: Ramp CTO Karim Atiyeh runs marketing and intentionally recruits engineers
“So one interesting thing about ramps organization is it's so engineering led that ramp CTO Kareem actually runs marketing and they oftentimes are focused on recruiting engineers to their marketing team because they want to take an engineering led approach.”
Coogan: El Segundo founders successfully transitioned from Twitter posting to inbound media
“I've always said that it's underrated that the Gundo guys beat the allegations of being too Twitter-brained. And too addicted to posting, and they very, very elegantly Switched from just constantly posting and needing to do all the work themselves to get atten…”
Coogan: Venture capital requires risking a 5% chance the founder goes to jail
“Venture means, it needs to be, there's a 90%, there's a five percent chance this is a trillion dollar company, 90% chance it goes to zero, five percent chance the founder goes to jail, and I'm, Disgraced, and I never work again.”
Hayes: Investing small checks at low valuations beats paying $15M-$20M post
“They're making these bets where they'll invest Very small six-figure checks at very reasonable valuations, given the risk profile. And I'm extremely bullish on the strategy. It makes me feel like an idiot for entering companies at 15 posts or 20 posts.”
Hayes: Avoid investing in sectors with crowded market maps
“If the market map looks like a TGI Friday's menu, probably stay away. Don't make your first bet.”
Hayes: Basic web development is no longer a viable career path
“What I'm seeing in the creative market right now is the truly, truly talented creatives that that have incredible, impeccable tastes and execution and have built great teams around them are busier than ever. Then the bottom half of the market, like the histori…”
Coogan: Solving San Francisco makes Waymo's expansion to Chicago or LA easy
“Going into San Francisco, like crazy streets, tons of pedestrians, like shoddy streets, like all sorts of weather, fog, and also people that will vandalize you. So if they can solve that, it's going to be a breeze to go to Chicago or LA.”
Coogan: Claude has become the default integration for Cursor
“I think if you're programming, Claude has been, has become like the default integration for Cursor,”
Hayes: Top 20% private companies plan to IPO within two years
“If you're in the top 20% private companies right now, every single one of those companies is looking at, we are going to go public within the next two years.”
Hayes: Thousands of private unicorns lack momentum to IPO
“There's thousands of other private unicorns that are backlogged that, that are no, that just don't have the traction or momentum.”
Hayes: Meme coins are the new American lottery for the terminally online
“Meme coins are the new American lottery. For the terminally online.”
Coogan: If your startup idea is on a market map, you lack vision
“This is the market map thing. If it's on the market map, you don't have the vision.”
Coogan: Creator AI wrappers capture value despite not disrupting foundation models
“She has a cornered resource in her audience. She's got attention where yes. Who knows if this is that much better than just asking vanilla chat GPT, but if she can drive people to this app, she can monetize that she's effectively acting as like an affiliate of…”
Coogan: Coinbase offered a 1 BTC referral bonus during YC Summer 2012
“In our YC batch, the referral bonus for going on Coinbase at the time was one Bitcoin.”
Hayes: Investors should judge startups harshly for poor design
“I think that investors should be extremely judgmental of companies that have poor design, because it's basically You should figure out a way to get it done for almost zero dollars. And then all it takes from that point on is hiring one person who's a great des…”
Hayes: Great product demos matter more to VCs than pitch decks
“Investors don't need to see a deck if you have a banger demo and you are super compelling. It helps if you're an insider, it helps if you speak the language, it helps if you've maybe interned at a venture fund or whatever it is, but build a phenomenal demo get…”
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Coogan: Video game skill predicts founder success, contrasting Musk and SBF
“Many, many cases, and we've talked about this before, but very interesting correlation between the great gamers, Elon, one of the greatest Diablo players of all time, SBF, One of the worst League of Legends players of all time.”