Feb 24, 2025 · 21m · tbpn
Could NIKOLA Make a Comeback?
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Austin Petersmith and Jordi Hays analyze the rise, fraudulent practices, and Chapter 11 bankruptcy of Nikola Corporation, exploring the broader commercial EV shakeout before discussing the enterprise AI rivalry between Salesforce and Microsoft.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 42.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Austin assertively dismisses Nikola as an open secret in Silicon Valley, comparing it directly to Theranos and claiming everyone in tech knew it was entirely fake from day one.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 13:05 Contextualizing the EV Truck ThesisJordi gently pushes back against the premise that Nikola was totally baseless, explaining that legacy automakers lacked EV roadmaps and that the commercial trucking thesis was logical even if execution failed.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 17:38 Macro EV Industry ShakeoutAustin educates the host on the broader regulatory landscape, citing specific Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, EPA mandates, and the wave of bankruptcies hitting Lordstown, Fisker, and Arrival.
The host holds their own ▶ 13:05 Strategic Breakdown of Commercial Fleet MarketJordi demonstrates his market expertise by laying out the strategic dilemma of legacy OEMs, commercial vehicle adoption curves, and why narrative capture outpaced real-world traction.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bankruptcy and Meme Stock Mania | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Jordi and Austin collaboratively break down Nikola's bankruptcy and its 2020 SPAC valuation. Jordi draws comparisons between Nikola's market hype and meme coins, maintaining an agreeable and comedic dynamic. | |
| Prototype Fakes, Downhill Rolling, and Suing Tesla | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | The conversation is completely aligned as both hosts mock Nikola's staged downhill rolling truck video and Trevor Milton suing Tesla. Both share humorous observations about kit cars and fake prototypes without disagreement. | |
| The Nikola Badger and Automotive Gimmicks | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Jordi leads the narrative rundown of the Nikola Badger concept, the GM partnership failure, and the Hindenburg short report fallout. Austin chimes in supportively on Tesla design features and automotive gimmicks. | |
| Silicon Valley Skepticism and Commercial EV Realities | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Austin points out that Silicon Valley viewed Nikola as an obvious Theranos-like fraud, backed only by non-traditional investors. Jordi adds counter-context, explaining why the commercial EV trucking narrative genuinely made sense to legacy automakers at the time. | |
| WSJ Analysis on the EV Truck Shakeout | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Austin walks through a Wall Street Journal opinion piece detailing the broader regulatory environment, tax subsidies, and bankruptcies of other EV startups like Lordstown and Fisker. Jordi listens and makes lighthearted comments about Ford. | |
| Sponsor Segment: Eight Sleep | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | The hosts deliver a sponsor read for Eight Sleep and transition into discussing Salesforce, Microsoft, and David Sacks. The exchange is friendly trivia and banter about tech platforms. |