Insight
Coogan: Startups face a stigma when hiring dev shops instead of founding engineers
“There's a stigma around hiring dev shops. You want to hire founding engineers. Like, you know, the title matters and the idea of like, okay, we have a full-time employee. We got somebody who's delivering. They're a high performer. Our team is cracked. We don't…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Uber outsourced its initial software build-out
“Uber's initial build out was all outsourced and it was like a mark on the company. Obviously it didn't affect them. They went on a generational run.”
Disclosure
Soham Parikh confirms he worked multiple engineering jobs simultaneously
“It is true. And yeah I would, you know, love to add color to it, but that is true.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Soham Parikh denies outsourcing his engineering work to junior developers
“I wish I had the money and I wish that was true, but that is not true. Any of the founders that you know I worked with can watch with that. I have multiple locations like pair program with people, you know, I've written every single inch of the court.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Parikh: I juggled startups before the AI coding assistant boom
“Some of these companies I've worked at was before the co-pilot boom, right? There were no AI assisted programming. At least three startups have went on the record, like saying this.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Suhail Doshi states Soham Parikh had a net negative impact at Lindy
“I am literally out of a meeting like an hour ago, where the engineer described his impact as negative.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sundberg: Erewhon brand smoothie collaborations cost roughly $200k per month
“Like, I think to get an Erewhon smoothie for your brand, it's like, 200 K for a month or something.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sundberg: Legacy media will partner with Substackers rather than raise staff comp
“I see traditional media companies more likely to start doing, like, handshakes with Substack writers than starting to completely restructure how they're paying their staff.”
Disclosure
Emily Sundberg earns approximately $600,000 annually writing her Feed Me newsletter
“Like when I was getting paid 60 K at a job and when I'm making like 10 times that now, right?”
Opinion
Sundberg: Condé Nast is overall currently on life support
“But I think that Conde Nast overall right now is on life support.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sundberg: Many Biden White House staffers were recruited straight from Meta
“I mean, there's, there are a lot of people that worked in the White House under Biden who used to work at Instagram. Like they were recruited straight from Meta.”
Assertion Supported
Kukoff: Senate Voted 99-1 to Remove AI Regulation Moratorium
“It's out, now it was done, 99 to one in the Senate, almost unanimous in the Senate, To get this out. This was a big win for Dario of Anthropic, probably the number one beneficiary.”
Insight
Kukoff: California State AI Regulation Would Effectively Act as National Policy
“And so if California tomorrow says, look, We're passing a European-style bill to severely curtail, which I think would be a disaster, to severely curtail AI development. That would, in effect, be a national bill.”
Assertion Supported
Prince: Anthropic is 30,000x and OpenAI 750x harder than Google for traffic
“As you looked at open AI, it was about 750 times harder than with the kind of Google of old to get traffic with something like anthropic is 30,000 times harder.”
Disclosure
Cloudflare enables free default blocking of uncompensated AI web crawlers
“Starting on July first we flipped the script. We made it as a default that if you're using Cloudflare that you can by default for free block any crawlers from taking your content without compensating you.”
Disclosure
Prince: Cloudflare is exploring creating its own stablecoin for micropayments
“We're looking at all of the different providers that are in this space, including potentially creating our own stablecoin that would be part of how these transactions you know, take place.”
Opinion
Prince: The internet's original sin is lack of privacy, not payments
“The original sin of the internet is not that it didn't include payments. It's that it was, that there was no privacy built into it, and your IP address reveals far too much about you as, and who you are.”
Opinion
Prince: MCP is leading candidate for agent-to-agent web protocol
“MCP is, is sort of the leading candidate for providing that, but you're right that that's a sort of draft version of that, that specification, and there are a lot of things that have to you know, mature in order for that to be something that is the real kind o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Prince: Musicians make tens of millions fulfilling unmet Spotify search queries
“There are musicians who take this list and they actually write songs based on what people are looking for. And that, that they make tens of millions of dollars a year doing just exactly that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Prince: Big tech companies agree they must eventually pay for web content
“Cause we've talked with all the big tech companies, all the companies about this and they all like with maybe one or two very small exceptions. They all say, yes, we understand over the longterm, we have to pay for content.”
Assertion Partly supported
Prince: Iran's largest crypto exchange and major bank suffered massive cyberattacks
“One of Iran's largest banks was hacked by what looked like a group of Israeli hacktivists. The largest cryptocurrency exchange in Iran was hacked and all its funds were drained.”
Assertion Supported
Prince: Iran is targeting US financial and infrastructure firms with cyber attacks
“We're starting to see that Iran is targeting other other largely U.S. Financial services firms critical infrastructure firms to try and see, to sort of try and strike back from what is you know, how, how do they strike back against the US in a way that that, t…”
Insight
Prince: Prioritizing raw performance over power efficiency is a losing chip strategy
“We've seen this game before with Intel saying, oh, that doesn't matter. Like just get the most performance possible. You can water cool things, all kinds of things. That, that tends to not be the winning strategy over the long term, and so we do think that the…”
Insight
Prince: Every chip shortage in silicon history turns into a glut
“There's never been a chip shortage in any time in the history of silicon that doesn't turn into a glut.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Poached Four Senior OpenAI Researchers For Meta AI
“Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg successfully recruited four senior researchers from the company to join Meta's super intelligence lab.”
Opinion
Coogan: Meta Will Not Try To Directly Disrupt ChatGPT
“I don't think that Meta is necessarily going to try and go eat ChatGPT's lunch. Like I was revisiting that conversation that we had with Jeff Huber, and he was saying like, you know, he was kind of reiterating like, never bet against Zuck. Like he's working on…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Facebook's 2010-2011 Poaching Raid Forced Google To Raise Comp
“In 2011, in 2010 and 20 11 Zuck and Facebook went super aggressive poaching from Google. So Facebook had crossed half a billion users. They were, in that period of transitioning from a super scrappy startup. Yep. And they went heavy into Google. So they went a…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
Insight
Hays: Matching Competitor Poach Offers Creates Perverse Retention Incentives
“The other thing is, is it creates this like really nasty incentive. To basically be like, oh yeah, you know, you maybe got hit up by a meta recruiter like many months ago and you can be like, yeah, I mean, they reached out to me and suddenly they're like hover…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Zuckerberg offered tens of millions to mid-level Google engineers
“Going back to Zuck raiding Google in, in, in, in, in, in, in, he was offering tens of millions of dollars in stock packages to mid-level engineers just because he was like, I need a really good ad product.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Dylan Patel reports Stargate supercomputer cluster goes online in December
“Dylan Patel says December is when Stargate's coming online, and that should be a big like the biggest cluster ever”
Opinion
Coogan: Enforcing non-competes in AI would dramatically lower researcher wages
“The immediate impact of non-competes in this context would be dramatically lower wages for AI researchers like Rune”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: OpenAI used FP8 weight storage two years before DeepSeek
“And when you talk to Dylan Patel, I was asking him about deep seek and how deep seek was doing all these innovations and like moving to floating .8, like smaller smaller, basically smaller numbers, storing the weights. And he was like, oh yeah, but open AI was…”
Opinion
Hays: VCs Cannot Compete With Big Tech Compute in AI Talent War
“Some of the, you know, some of the losers out of this talent war are just VCs because how do you compete? How do you compete when? You know, historically you could have gone to some of these and really overpaid to invest. You could have come to them with a rid…”
Assertion Partly supported
Depue: Yann LeCun had no involvement with Meta's LLaMA models
“I think it's a shame that they didn't necessarily have someone in the llama org who was as visible as him because he was not involved with llama at all. Like fair fundamental AI research is like a whole other group that they mostly write papers and do very aca…”
Opinion
Depue: Meta has not had a homegrown product innovation stick in a while
“It's been a while since they had a product innovation that was homegrown that really stuck.”
Opinion
Depue: OpenAI holds iPhone-like center of gravity as default AI winner
“I think as long as OpenAI doesn't totally drop the ball on product or research, like, they have the center of gravity for the AI world, like, in the same way that no matter what Android ships, people are not gonna switch from their iPhones, like, It's somethin…”
Opinion
Depue: Cursor and Claude 3.5 Sonnet made AI coding genuinely useful
“And then it took until cursor for it to really like, I think cursor plus like three, five summit was when it became a thing that was good enough that people were excited about it. And it really ushered in the trend because people were starting to find it more …”
Insight
Depue: RL task specification scales with compute far better than pre-training data
“Because like tokens, you kind of hit diminishing returns pretty quick in terms of just like more internet texts or more like human written math solution examples. And it doesn't scale super well, but the thing, the nice thing about the task specification is yo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Depue: Meta may eventually shift to releasing closed flagship AI models
“I w it wouldn't surprise me if they go kind of the Google route where like they are still, they still do open source. They still have the llama brand, but it isn't like their flagship thing where they start doing, whether it's for internal products or it's, th…”
Assertion Supported
Depue: Meta dedicates a huge portion of its GPUs to Instagram recommendations
“Meta has a ton of GPUs. They just use for Instagram ads recommendations.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: All 11 Meta Super Intelligence hires are foreign-educated immigrants
“Every single one of the 11 Meta, Meta Super Intelligence hires has an, is an immigrant who did their undergrad abroad. Ah, seven from China, one from India, one from Australia, one from UK, One from South Africa. Eight are PhDs or PhD dropouts in the US.”