Aug 16, 2025 · 2h 0m · tbpn
Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
John Coogan · 52m spoken Jordi Hays · 30m spoken Everett Randle · 10m spoken Delian Asparouhov · 10m spoken Sam Altman · 2m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
John Coogan and Jordy Hays break down major tech headlines, including the public feud between Elon Musk and Sam Altman, AI distribution hurdles, Perplexity's Chrome bid, UFC's shift to streaming, Apple's robotics roadmap, and a venture debate on deep tech versus AI software.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 48.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.2 Guest teaching 3.2 Guest disagreement 2.7 The hosts pushing back 2.0
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:43:20 Competition is for losers jab
Delian directly attacks Everett's portfolio company Captions, claiming two Stanford grads with a hundred million dollars could easily clone it.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 7:44 Pushing back on OpenAI's monopoly of mindshare on XJohn pushes back against Jordy's claim that OpenAI completely dominates the narrative on X, pointing to Claude Code and Anthropic vibes winning developer mindshare.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:31:30 Everett breaking down Seven Powers and ROICEverett delivers a masterclass on Hamilton Helmer's Seven Powers and return on invested capital dynamics to refute Delian's gross margin framing.
The host holds their own ▶ 13:40 Coogan's technical history of social network API integrationsCoogan thoroughly details how Twitter and Instagram interacted natively in the 2010s before walled gardens and monetization pressures took over.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk Accuses Apple of App Store Antitrust Violations | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | John Coogan demonstrates a solid grasp of App Store mechanics, referencing Nikita Bier's ranking growth tactics and category gaming. Jordy Hays contributes complementary App Store data points without creating friction. | |
| Sam Altman Claps Back as Grok Sides Against Elon | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Coogan pushes back gently on the claim that OpenAI completely dominates X organically, pointing to Anthropic and Claude's viral traction. Jordy recaps the Twitter feud between Altman and Musk with Grok taking Altman's side. | |
| App Store Discovery Challenges and Grok's Distribution Strategy | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Coogan shows strong historical industry knowledge, recounting early Twitter/Instagram cross-posting mechanics and the Adam Bain/Dick Costolo API philosophy. The dialogue remains collaborative as both hosts analyze Grok's distribution challenges. | |
| Strategic Counter-Positioning in AI Companions and Hardware | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Coogan references Paul Graham's framing of counter-positioning regarding Avi Schiffman's Friend hardware device. The co-hosts and Tyler explore why truth-seeking benchmarks clash with consumer companionship features. | |
| Cluely's Viral Manhattan Billboard and Consumer AI Retention | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Jordy challenges the agent classification on the CB Insights list, calling out non-agentic products like Glean and Mercor. Coogan agrees on the categorizations and notes the omission of ChatGPT Deep Research and Claude Code. | |
| Sam Altman on Monetizing AI: Traditional Ads vs. Agentic Commerce | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Coogan provides analysis on how conversational ads will look more like affiliate commission checkouts rather than legacy banner ads, citing SemiAnalysis. Both hosts review audio clips of Sam Altman explaining his evolving view on ad monetization. | |
| Perplexity's Audacious $34.5B Longshot Offer to Buy Google Chrome | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Coogan questions the low enterprise valuation of Chrome cited in the WSJ piece and compares it to Apple's search traffic acquisition costs. Jordy notes live Polymarket odds collapsing on the Perplexity acquisition rumor. | |
| TBPN Streaming in Waymo and Perplexity Deal Realities | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Jordy details the business dynamics behind the UFC-Paramount deal and the decline of the legacy pay-per-view model. Coogan calculates subscriber value shifts and technical streaming friction. | |
| Apple's AI Hardware Pipeline: Tabletop Robots and Siri Overhaul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Coogan provides sharp analysis of Apple's recent marketing missteps, warning against Black Mirror dystopian framing for home robotics. Jordy reviews Mark Gurman's reporting on Apple's upcoming tabletop robotic device. | |
| The Debate: Delian Asparouhov vs. Everett Randle on Slop vs. Steel | 5 | 7 | 8 | 3 | Guests Delian Asparouhov and Everett Randle engage in a sharp, combative debate over hard-tech Capex versus software application power. The guests repeatedly mock each other's investment math and portfolio companies. |
Statements from this episode (22)
Hays: Meta's Threads has crossed 400 million monthly active users
“Four is Threads, which apparently just crossed four hundred million monthly active users.”
Coogan: Anthropic leads narrative on X while OpenAI dominates real world
“I feel like OpenAI has been more dominant just in the real world, and actually Anthropix done very well on X.”
Hays: Sam Altman and OpenAI are not shadowbanned on X
“And so I don't believe that he's like shadow banned. I don't believe that anyone in open AI is like shadow banned or being held back in the algorithm.”
Hays: Technical Benchmarks 20% Better Do Not Drive Consumer Switching
“People don't switch products because something is. 20% better in this technical way, right? They develop habits.”
Hays: xAI Announced a $200M Contract with the Department of Defense
“It was only a month ago, Grok or XAI announced a partnership with the Department of Defense, a two hundred million dollar contract, so that's serious.”
Coogan: Cursor Generates $500M in Revenue and $3.2M Per Employee
“The top was Curser at five hundred million in annual revenue and they're making 3.2 million dollars in revenue per employee.”
Coogan: ChatGPT Deep Research Is Likely Most Used AI Agent Worldwide
“And also not including ChatGPT, which has deep research, which is probably the most used AI agent in the world right now. I have to imagine just by number of queries”
Coogan: AI ad monetization will start as commissions for agentic checkout
“That will be the, like what we say about ads in AI, it will be more like commissions for agentic checkout, at least to start.”
Altman: OpenAI treats advertising as a last-resort business model
“I kind of think of ads as like a last resort for us for a business model.”
Hays: Odds of Perplexity acquiring Chrome are closer to zero than 1%
“I would put the odds of this deal happening closer to zero percent than one percent.”
Hays: Bankers have not heard of Perplexity's rumored Google Chrome acquisition
“A little birdie just told me that they spoke to a number of bankers that have not heard of the perplexity deal, which I imagine as it firms up, if it firms up, they'll certainly hear about it.”
Hays: UFC events will stream on Paramount+ starting in 2026
“So, beginning in 2026, all UFC events will stream on Paramount Plus with select events also airing on CBS.”
Hays: Paramount deal roughly doubles UFC's $550M annual ESPN payout
“The fact that it's doing so as part of a deal that will essentially double the roughly five hundred and fifty million per year the UFC currently receives from ESPN likely only made that calculation easier.”
Coogan details specs for Apple's prototype tabletop robotic display
“Device prototypes use a roughly seven inch horizontal display approaching the size of an iPad mini. The motorized arm can extend the display away from the base roughly half a foot In any direction.”
Hays: Apple AI teams use ChatGPT and Gemini during product development
“During the development of the tabletop robot, Apple engineers have made heavy use of ChatGPT and Google Gemini to build and test features. Within Apple AI and Siri Teams as a whole, software developers are increasingly using third-party systems as part of thei…”
Hays: Apple is developing a long-lasting smart home security camera
“Apple's working on a camera codename J-Four-Fifties is designed for home security, detecting people, and automating tasks. The device will be battery-powered and could last for several months To a year on a single charge.”
Asparouhov: Salesforce Holds Only a 25% CRM Market Share
“Salesforce, their market share and all things CRM is 25%. And so that's why you end up seeing like, yeah, gross margin profiles only burdened by like, you know, cloud, you know, sort of cost, but their EBITDA margin profile that is like, you know, sort of 40%.”
Randle: 2010s SaaS Faced Much Lower Competition Than Today's Software
“The competitive intensity of SaaS during the twenty-tens was much, much, much lower than it is today. Like during the twenty-tens, there was an entire crop of companies in the 2000, but then especially in the twenty-tens, you could basically pick either a vert…”
Randle: Frontier AI token price declines will slow down dramatically
“There's going to be a very, very large set of tasks that models do that are not on the frontier. And those are going to continue to get dirt cheap. I actually think that at the frontier, you're probably going to see continued price decreases on a per token bas…”
Randle: ChatGPT drives the majority of industry foundation model revenue
“The majority of all of that, or at least the plurality of all of that is ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, even though it is served by a foundation model company, is an application. It is a consumer subscription that has an immense amount of power. It has an immense amoun…”
Asparouhov: Hardware Investors Underestimate Time Required for Positive Gross Margins
“I watch people invest in them, and I'm like, wow, like, you just have a deep underappreciation for just, like, how long this company has until gross margin flips to, like, positive, how long it's going to be until they're actually, you know, sort of ready to, …”
Randle: AI Revenue Quality Could Exceed SaaS When Monetizing Like Labor
“I do think as some customers crack these agentic products that look and Monetize more like labor. AI revenue could actually exceed the quality of SAS revenue just because you're getting so much more gross profit per customer or like customer relationship than …”