Mar 6, 2026 · 29m · tbpn
Daniel Gross’ AGI predictions, SpaceX IPO news, Trump takes control of US chip exports | Diet TBPN
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Hosts Jordi Hays and John Coogan evaluate Daniel Gross's prescient 'AGI Trades' predictions against current industry developments, examining hardware value accrual, energy bottlenecks, Taiwan semiconductor risks, federal export policies, and SpaceX's record IPO valuation.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 98.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.8 Guest teaching 0.2 Guest disagreement 0.3 The hosts pushing back 0.2
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 26:54 Producer challenges standard framing on Anthropic controversy
The crew member offers a mild contrarian angle by pointing out that Anthropic's leadership actually favors stricter export restrictions despite political conflict.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 18:41 Jordi teases producer's corporate ambitionJordi playfully pushes back on the producer's claim that he could manage Colgate's corporate AI strategy.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 17:53 Producer offers 'light blue-collar' labor market reframeThe producer introduces an alternative perspective on software-to-machinist reskilling, proposing iPad-mediated machine shop management.
The host holds their own ▶ 22:15 John details semiconductor node physics and lithography limitsJohn explains why SMIC and Huawei cannot easily brute-force lagging edge DUV nodes with raw power to match frontier EUV AI models.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revisiting Daniel Gross's Prescient Predictions on AGI | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Co-hosts John and Jordi establish the episode's framing by breaking down Daniel Gross's early 2024 predictions on AGI agentic capabilities and matching them to current model releases. | |
| Value Accrual in AI Infrastructure, Hardware, and Commodities | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | John demonstrates significant financial and technical domain knowledge, citing specific balance sheet figures, market caps, and the physical copper specifications of Nvidia's NVL72 server racks. | |
| San Francisco Real Estate Recovery and Structural Wealth Disparities | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | The hosts cite exact San Francisco commercial real estate vacancy metrics alongside IMF and OECD working papers on wage versus wealth inequality. | |
| Energy Bottlenecks, Labor Market Reskilling, and Semiconductor Physics | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | John explains advanced packaging (CoWoS) and semiconductor physics constraints (EUV vs DUV and 14nm vs frontier nodes in China). The producer chimes in casually about blue-collar AI workflows. | |
| Taiwan Geopolitical Tensions and Global Semiconductor Supply Vulnerabilities | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Jordi and John analyze military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, detailing Chinese rocket launch proximity relative to territorial waters and TSMC's Arizona hedging strategy. | |
| Trump's Federal Chip Export Controls and Clashes with Anthropic | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | The hosts discuss Trump's export licensing framework and rhetoric regarding Anthropic, with the producer pointing out the paradox between Trump's rhetoric and Dario Amodei's stated export control stance. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Coogan: Nvidia captured over 100% of total AI boom profits
“Nvidia basically captures and did for a while more than 100% of the profits from the AI boom, because so many of the other companies in the AI space were losing money.”
Coogan: Nvidia revenue tripled from $60B to $215.9B by FY2026
“Revenue tripled from sixty billion in fiscal year 2024 to 215.9 billion in fiscal year 2026.”
Coogan: Nvidia GB200 NVL72 server rack contains two miles of copper
“NVIDIA's GB 200 NVL 72 server rack uses over 5000 copper cables. There's 72 GPUs wired together, but you need 5000 copper wires to get it all to work together. If you stretched out all of the copper wire in an NVL 72, From one side to another, it would go two …”
Coogan: Data centers will use 500K tons of copper annually soon
“Data centers broadly will be using half a million tons of copper annually in a few years.”
Coogan: San Francisco office vacancy dropped from 36.9% to 33.5%
“Office vacancy fell from 36.9% to 33.5%.”
Coogan: Bay Area captured 78% of AI venture capital in H1 2025
“The Bay Area received 78% of AI venture capital in the first half of 2025, and there is a flip side to this.”
Coogan: Magnificent Seven drove 42% of S&P 500 returns in 2025
“So the mag seven, the seven biggest tech companies in America, they now comprise 32% of the S&P 500 market cap, and they drove 42% of total returns in 2025.”
Coogan: AI boom is already broader and bigger than mobile
“Mobile AI is, is broader and bigger already than mobile.”
Coogan: Power transformer lead times reached over three years
“Lead time for new, lead times for new power transformers reached over three years, in some cases, with a 30% supply shortfall.”
Coogan: US produced 40 notable AI models in 2024 vs China's 15
“In 2024, China had just 9.3 billion invested in private AI companies. There's four hundred seventy billion cumulative since 2013, more than all other countries combined. The U.S. Produced 40 notable AI models in 2024 versus China's 15.”
Coogan: No frontier model has been trained on older than 5nm hardware
“No frontier model to date has been trained on hardware older than five nanometer.”
Hays: China deployed over 100 aircraft and warships around Taiwan
“China conducted joint sword. 20 24 B exercises in October of 2024. Surrounding Taiwan with coordinated military operations. In December, 25, Justice Mission 25 deployed over a hundred aircraft, 90 crossing the median line, 13 warships, and 27 rockets fired fro…”
Hays: TSMC's Arizona Fab Could Handle 30% of Advanced Production
“TSMC is planning ahead, working on a fab complex in Arizona, which Tyler visited. Should be able to handle 30% of total advanced truck production at scale, but it's on a knife's edge.”
Hays: Anthropic Officially Designated as a Federal Supply Chain Risk
“This also coincided with Anthropic, I guess, officially being designated as a supply chain risk”
Hays: Trump administration drafting rules to control all AI chip exports
“The Trump administration is drafting rules that would require U.S. Approval for nearly all AI chip exports.”