The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Urban: Psychedelics are cognitive tools to view internal thoughts objectively
“Psychedelics allows you to kind of like step outside and look at the sphere, and like maybe look at it from other angles, and like walk around it, look under it, and like, and that is incredible. Like it's an incredible tool.”
Urban: Twitter reveals how ideological bubbles perceive and argue about news
“Twitter doesn't just teach, doesn't just show you what the news is, it shows you what the perception of the news is, and it shows you what the arguments about the news is, and the different you know, a viewpoints and the different you can, and if you follow th…”
Urban: Top investors and founders excel at macro and micro analysis
“And I do think the secret of some of the most You know, people who seem super prescient, like they can just, you know, read the future amazing at investing in stocks, or they're incredible entrepreneurs, they just can see opportunities or whatever it is. I eve…”
Urban: Write about topics when they are buzzy but widely misunderstood
“A good time is when it's buzzy, but people don't quite understand it yet. It's a good time for a topic like that. You don't want to do it when everyone's like read a bunch of stuff and they already have a sense of it and it's become like now there's camps, pol…”
Urban: Musk pursues critical goals even with ten percent success probabilities
“He'll talk about, even if he thinks something has a 10% chance of succeeding, but it's really important, it's worth trying.”
Urban: Humanity will likely solve the Fermi Paradox within fifty years
“It seems like it's something I suspect that we're going to get an answer to in the next, like, 50 years. Like, I think we're at the end of our, I think this is the, this is one of the last, not last, it's one of like the, it's the, it's one of the big question…”
Urban: Twitter is flawed but excels at making high-quality connections
“Twitter sucks in a hundred ways, but like the, it's like really like fantastically great for like three or four really important things.”
Urban: Low stakes and zero perfectionism unlock productive creative output
“I was doing a creative pursuit that I wasn't being perfectionist about, because I didn't pride myself on being good at it, and I didn't, I wasn't trying to do anything big with it, and so that's often how you end up in a really kind of loose, carefree creative…”