why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carson: AI agents will write, review, and ship 100% of code
“You will be using a software factory. Like, and what I mean is, the agents are going to be writing a hundred percent of your code, reviewing a hundred percent of your code, shipping a hundred percent of your code. Like, that's where we're going.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carson: AI engineering token costs will hit $5,000 monthly per employee
“I think all of us are in a place where we, we're getting to the spot where it's realizing, okay, for real engineering work per employee, you're looking at probably five grand a month. Like, that's probably where we're gonna shake out here.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carson averages 22 to 25 pull requests daily using AI agents
“And you can see what, you know, the average here is, is sort of this 22 to 25 PRs a day, right? And sometimes, you know, 40 a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ryan Carson Built an Entire Software Feature Autonomously Using Ralph
“I actually built an entire feature with Ralph, and these are the steps I took. I created the PRD, I created the user stories, and then I started Ralph, and then I'm just going to show you an example of kind of what this looks like for real.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Carson: Typical Ralph AI agent cycle takes 10 iterations and costs $30
“The typical Ralph cycle is probably 10 iterations. So you're looking at maybe 30 bucks.”
Assertion Supported
Carson: Jeff Huntley conceived the Ralph AI agent framework
“A friend of mine named Jeff Huntley thought up this idea called Ralph.”