The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brown: AI will control browsers as well as humans within three months
“Cause this is not a year from now. This is like three months away. AI will be able to control any browser like as good of a human.”
Brown: People will prompt full movies with perfect audio in 739 days
“People are going to be creating movies with prompts 739 days from now, with perfect dialogue, with perfect speech with great background music, like, all of the models are going to be integrated into these videos and it's going to completely disrupt social medi…”
Brown: Small overseas teams will run millions of AI influencer accounts
“It's going to be a group of 10 people overseas somewhere who are running millions of accounts to the point where it floods social media, where Mark Zuckerberg's going to be like, oh, like, we have to tone this back, like, or else it's just going to flood the i…”
Fully autonomous AI developer tools will build entire apps within two years
“Like Devin's trying to create that right now where like I could just give them this idea for an app and then I could go eat pizza and come back and It's just done after many iterations. And so that is like the full, that's where I think this is ultimately goin…”
Brown: AI will autonomously build and use custom tools within a year
“If you think about where we were even a year ago and then you think about where we will be a year from now, you know it may just create its own Canva a year from now and then use that. It might be like, oh, it'd be way faster for me to just create my own tool …”
Riley Brown: Social platforms will de-boost faceless AI accounts
“I think social media platforms are going to start de-boosting, ah, faceless accounts, because I don't think people want faceless accounts.”
Brown: Vibe Marketing Market Will Probably Be as Big as Vibe Coding
“I think it's all great, and a massive industry. Probably as big as Vibe Coding.”
The popularity of .ai domain extensions will wear off soon
“I think the dot AI is going to wear off soon. Like, I think it's going to become uninteresting”
Brown: Users will eventually talk to AI just like a designer employee
“The end game is like, you're going to talk to AI exactly as you would talk to a designer employee which scares some employees, but like also empowers you to create some cool things.”
Brown: AI Benchmarks in One Year Will Measure Cost and Time per Task
“That's where I think the benchmark thing will be a year from now. It's not going to be how token efficient is it. It's going to be how much money and how much time does it cost to do a specific task?”
Brown: A startup building an AI video editor in Codex will make a killing
“I'm sure there's going to be a company that only builds, like, an AI video editor like ReMotion that shows up inside Codex, and they're going to make a killing, right?”
Riley Brown: Janky AI Tool Setup Will Be Solved by End of 2025
“Is this process janky? Yes. But will it be solved by the end of the year? I think for sure.”
Brown: AI agents will assemble apps using UI component libraries
“And I think eventually AI agents will have access to component libraries like this, so they'll be able to just select, ah, really cool components like this and place them on your web apps, your mobile apps, ah, and things like that.”
Brown: Solo Developers Will Earn Six Figures Building Niche Consumer Apps
“I think a lot of people are gonna make, are gonna carve out niches, and maybe they, they're making, you know, six figures a year building a simple app that's like tailored for specific niches, so I'm super bullish on consumer mobile and consumer web for that m…”
Brown: E-commerce product photos will dynamically adapt to individual users
“And I also think even if it's just selling one product, the product photos will change depending on who you are because it's so easy to create variations of these product photos.”
Cursor will support reading web views by the end of 2025
“My prediction is by the end of the year it will, but Cursor doesn't see your web view, and so you need to give it all of the information that you see, and the more correct information you give it, the better.”
Brown: Platforms will emerge acting as a TikTok for web apps
“Cause like, I think there's going to be platforms built for this, like where there, it'll be like a sandbox thing where it'll, it'll be like the TikTok of social, of applications where you can like create a little environment and you scroll through them, find …”