The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wilkinson: Basic businesses will be fully run by AI in 3-6 months
“And I think that we're probably three to six months out from being able to just can businesses off to AI to run at least basic businesses like this.”
Wilkinson: ChatGPT will eliminate software middlemen by building tools on demand
“For all tools basically all middlemen businesses are gone. And I believe fundamentally that we are all going to go to the search bar and the new search bar is ChatGPT and you're going to query it and ChatGPT will just build whatever you need or it'll hook into…”
Wilkinson: Customer support will not be a human job very soon
“Like support to me is not a job very, very soon.”
Wilkinson: Anthropic and OpenAI will soon launch AI CEO products
“My, I mean, my kind of belief is like pretty soon Anthropic and OpenAI are gonna launch like basically like CEOs. So you just be like, I'm just gonna hire a CEO for my company. Give me your data. I'll figure it out. I'll run it. I'll run the whole business.”
Wilkinson: Software Will Face Extreme Pricing Pressure Like Restaurants
“I think pricing pressure is just gonna go crazy because it's like the restaurant industry. Like, you know, restaurants are not a bad business. They're bad because there's too much competition.”
Wilkinson: Device controllers like Apple will capture most consumer AI value
“The people that will ultimately capture a lot of this value are going to be whoever controls the devices. Because I do believe like a lot of these LLM a lot of this functionality will ultimately be implemented.”
Wilkinson: Almost all current AI businesses will be zeros in five years
“To be clear, I'm still saying almost all these businesses will be zeros in five years.”
Wilkinson: 5M to 10M context windows will enable AI-run companies
“And I feel like once the context window is like 5,000,010 million, then we'll be able to run entire companies with this.”
Wilkinson: A 'Her'-style AI assistant will be built within years
“I've basically just accepted that I'm going to live in Claude code until somebody builds her which I'm sure is coming in the next couple of years.”
Wilkinson: Home services and brick-and-mortar face robotics risk in 10-20 years
“I'm either buying like something with a moat, which is very, very hard to find certainly in technology right now home services, businesses, like very, very brick and mortar kind of stuff. But even that I think is at risk with robotics over the next 1020 years.”
Wilkinson: Addepar will not be able to sustain premium pricing much longer
“I don't think that they're going to be able to do that for too much longer because there's going to be a lot of competition that comes out. Hopefully somebody watches my video and says, I'm going to build this too, and then go crush Adapar.”
Wilkinson: AI search will scrape affiliate directories without passing traffic or links
“And so if you build an affiliate directory, they're just going to scrape that and then it'll inform the results and you'll never get your links in or credit or anything like that.”
Wilkinson: Standalone apps like Cal AI will face 100 clones within months
“There's tons of those, but there's going to be like a hundred of them in the app store in like two months. And then Cal AI will not be able to charge what they are.”
Wilkinson: Apple will analyze messages more, but never flag toxic contacts
“I think like some of these things Apple will do over time. Like I think their message summary is, is like an indication that eventually they're going to start digesting more of your messages. But I don't think that Apple would ever tell you who's toxic or narc…”
Wilkinson: An AI text message coaching app will easily make $1M
“I think this is a one year business. I think this is easy to copy. I think someone will copy this idea when I share it, they'll make a million dollars. It's not a longterm business, but it's a cool idea.”
Wilkinson: Apple will probably add blood glucose sensing within five years
“Another bet would be to say, you know, in the next five years, Apple will probably have a blood glucose sensor and that people will start monitoring things like that in their health more and more and more.”
Wilkinson: An impulse-purchasable, at-home mail-in sperm freezing startup could succeed
“And I think that if someone made it easy where I could impulse purchase it. So let's say that I go, I see an ad for it or some Instagram influencer talks about it. I click a link and they literally just ship you a package with dry ice. And you do it at home an…”