The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 76 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Dan Shipper: GPT-5.6 Accurately Handles 90% of Routine Emails
“I think that five five was fine, but not quite good enough. Like, I would say generally the email responses here, so like this email draft, for example, is like, It's as if I wrote it, like it's, maybe there's something that I would slightly change, and I migh…”
Dan Shipper Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 8:59 GPT 5.6 SOL IS HERE! How to use it.
Insight
Isenberg: The Real Unlock For Codex Sites Is AI-Operated Products
“I think that a lot of people are going to use codex sites to make, like, personal web pages, to make, like, little apps and stuff like that. But I actually think that the real unlock here is to make products that Codex can keep operating for you.”
Greg Isenberg Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 23:11 OpenAI Codex: Build Apps That Work For You 24/7
Assertion Supported
Brown: Codex autonomously built and played its own chess game
“And so, in my video, it did this in one prompt. I said, build a chess game, then use browser use to test the game and play yourself until one team wins. And that's what it did in one shot”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 42:40 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown: Claude and Codex Subscriptions Provide Thousands in Subsidized Tokens
“Like, in Claude or in Codex is you just save so much money because they're subsidizing, like, you get thousands of dollars of tokens for your a hundred dollar per month or 200 dollar per month plan because you're using their platforms.”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 44:01 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Insight
Isenberg: Founders over-optimize debating OpenAI versus Anthropic frontier models
“You don't need to worry about, you know, is OpenAI a little bit better than Anthropic? Like, the reality is, you know, you can think of it as like Ferrari and Lamborghini, like both cars are going to go fast. And, you know, one day one car might go faster, and…”
Greg Isenberg Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 33:27 I gave OpenClaw one job: go viral (it worked?)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Claude Opus 4.6 creates agent teams while Codex requires direct reasoning prompts
“When I'm talking to Opus, I can tell Opus, build me a team, and here's what I want each member of the team to do. When I'm talking to Codex, I can't really tell it to build me a team, but I can tell it to think about stuff.”
Morgan Linton Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 15:57 Claude Opus 4.6 vs GPT-5.3 Codex
Opinion
Isenberg: Sam Altman is right that this is the era of the 'idea guy'
“Sam Altman, the co-founder of OpenAI, just said that it is the era of the idea guy, and he is not wrong.”
Greg Isenberg Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 5:34 I Tested Gemini 3 as a Designer. It’s Terrifyingly Good.
Opinion
Greg Isenberg calls OpenAI Codex slightly worse than Cursor but most improved
“My take on Codex is it's a bit, yeah, it's a little worse than Cursor, But it's gains like the most most improved award.”
Greg Isenberg Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 16:10 The Best Vibe Coding Tools in 2026
Prediction Held up
Multi-step AI video editing workflows will soon be baked into Sora
“I do think that, like, for everything I laid out, it's important for now, but it's gonna be baked into Sora's kind of suite, where you can edit clips, you can kind of double tap into this, and this entire process is gonna get, like, a lot faster and a lot chea…”
PJ Ace Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 42:42 My AI Videos Hit 1M+ Views (Veo3 + Sora 2 Demo)
Insight
Courtney: Direct response marketing works best for bootstrapped businesses
“I think like if you don't have crap tons of money, like as in, if you don't have loads of funding from investors, like for example, chat open AI shouldn't do this style of marketing because they do not need to. They've got a crazy product, crazy traction, and …”
Jonathan Courtney Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 13:10 How Hormozi made $83m in 5 days (Ads, Emails, Pages, Everything)
Opinion
Greg Isenberg: OpenAI's o3 model beats GPT-4o for finding startup ideas
“Now you're gonna wanna make sure that O three is clicked here. Sometimes by default, I think four O is clicked. But I find for questions like this, you're gonna wanna use O three. It's just gonna be a bit more effective.”
Greg Isenberg Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 2:26 How I Use AI & Reddit to Find $1M+ Startup Ideas (FULL Blueprint)
Insight
Meng To: AI requires explicit reference prompts for unique designs
“Because, you know, AI is very limited in the amount of context. It's very trained in a certain way by Claude, by OpenAI, but it's not trained to be unique. It's not, the only way it can be unique is if you tell it, and if you handhold it, and if you give it th…”
Meng To Jun 9, 2025 ▶ 21:27 How to get 10x more out of Lovable, Cursor, v0
Prediction Held up
Isenberg: OpenAI Operator will eventually integrate native voice capabilities
“Yeah, I think I mean, it's only a matter of time, by the way, before operator adds voice anyways. They won't have to stitch it together with other voice agents.”
Greg Isenberg Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 14:29 ChatGPT Operator Built a $500/Day Business in 30 Minutes (tutorial)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fernando: OpenAI o3 launch will likely trigger reasoning model price drops
“Open AI is currently promised that the O three model will come out and the mini model will come out, which would be on par with this model. So that prices will also probably significantly drop as well because they just get more efficient with time.”
Ray Fernando Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 17:54 DeepSeek R1 - Everything you need to know
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fernando: OpenAI's upcoming o3 model will take the industry by storm
“And so it's going to be really exciting when they actually dropped O three. I think a lot of people are going to be taken by storm of like, what's actually really going to come out from them. It's going to be a really, really big leap.”
Ray Fernando Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 47:23 DeepSeek R1 - Everything you need to know
Assertion Supported
Fernando: GPT-4o natively understands audio and tone, unlike DeepSeek R1
“So one thing I just learned very recently about GPT-IV and ChatGPT's Omni models is the fact that this model's breakthrough, a little bit different than R-I, is the fact that it can actually understand audio and tone and all these extra implications that we do…”
Ray Fernando Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 46:15 DeepSeek R1 - Everything you need to know
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Josephs: OpenAI sent Autopilot a cease and desist over ChatGPT portfolio
“OpenAI sent us a cease and desist, so we have to close that one down.”
Chris Josephs Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 53:18 Meet the man who growth hacked his app to 1M downloads
Assertion Not checkable as stated
PDF AI founders made hundreds of thousands monthly before OpenAI's native update
“A few of the PDFAI guys who are building in that space. We're pretty pissed to put it lightly about what happened with the recent updates to chat GPT. Cause they were making tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars a month.”
Greg Isenberg Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 24:08 How To Make MILLIONS As A Faceless YouTuber | Dru Riley
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: GPT-5 will upgrade AI from a co-pilot to a full autopilot
“GPT-IV gives you directions, builds you a decent car and co-pilots. And GPT-V is, will give you directions, build you a Mercedes and autopilots.”
Greg Isenberg Mar 23, 2023 ▶ 18:17 From Zero to 100,000: How Jackson Greathouse Mastered Twitter Growth
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Phan: OpenAI and Microsoft will ultimately become AI cloud infrastructure providers
“I think the long-term economics for OpenAI and Microsoft which obviously owns about, we'll end up owning 45, 49% of it, is they're gonna have to be kind of a cloud provider. And they're going to want as many people to plug in as possible.”
Trung Phan Mar 9, 2023 ▶ 35:55 Trung Phan on The Hustle, ChatGPT, and TikTok
Assertion Partly supported
Ross Mike: GPT-6 Astra is OpenAI's priciest model, priced similarly to Fable
“OpenAI's most expensive model. It's on par with Fable in terms of pricing, but if you have a codec subscription, very subsidized, and not only that, it's also very efficient, meaning it doesn't take as many steps to complete a task.”
Michael Shemelis Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 1:57 GPT-6 Astra: How I’d Make Money With It
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Codex Sites Access Likely Coming Soon For ChatGPT Plus Users
“But I would imagine that access is probably coming really soon for plus, plus people.”
Greg Isenberg Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 5:45 OpenAI Codex: Build Apps That Work For You 24/7
Assertion Supported
Brown: GPT-5.5 API Costs Double That of GPT-5.4
“Yeah, if you use it via the API, it's twice as expensive as Ah, the recent model, which is, ah, GPT-Five-Point-Four. It's twice as expensive.”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 46:07 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Assertion Partly supported
Brown: GPT-5.5 API Costs 20% More Than Claude Opus 4.7
“And then it's also 20% more expensive than Opus 4.7.”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 47:18 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Assertion Supported
Altman announced GPT-5.3 Codex 18 minutes after Anthropic released Opus 4.6
“Opus four, six came out and then Sam Altman put together a quick tweet. I want to say like maybe 18 minutes later announcing GPT five, three codex”
Morgan Linton Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 1:43 Claude Opus 4.6 vs GPT-5.3 Codex
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: OpenAI Quietly Launched Skills Support for Codex
“Quietly, OpenAI has launched skills. So we've seen Anthropic and Claude skills. A lot of people talking about that, including myself, how amazing it is. But quietly, we have Codex now officially supports skills.”
Greg Isenberg Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 0:40 OpenAI Releases ChatGPT AI Agent Skills
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: OpenAI Adopted Anthropic's Agent Skills Standard for Codex
“So what's really cool is they're just following the agent skills IO standard, the one by Anthropic.”
Greg Isenberg Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 1:16 OpenAI Releases ChatGPT AI Agent Skills
Assertion Supported
Nixon: OpenAI AgentKit lets users build agentic workflows for free without code
“OpenAI just launched Agent Kit, and I think it's important to understand what it is because it lets anybody build agentic workflows without writing code for free.”
Roberto Nickson Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 10:15 The Complete AI Stack and Workflow for 100M+ Video Views
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