why aren't all 76 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Dan Shipper: GPT-5.6 Accurately Handles 90% of Routine Emails
“I think that five five was fine, but not quite good enough. Like, I would say generally the email responses here, so like this email draft, for example, is like, It's as if I wrote it, like it's, maybe there's something that I would slightly change, and I migh…”
Insight
Isenberg: The Real Unlock For Codex Sites Is AI-Operated Products
“I think that a lot of people are going to use codex sites to make, like, personal web pages, to make, like, little apps and stuff like that. But I actually think that the real unlock here is to make products that Codex can keep operating for you.”
Assertion Supported
Brown: Codex autonomously built and played its own chess game
“And so, in my video, it did this in one prompt. I said, build a chess game, then use browser use to test the game and play yourself until one team wins. And that's what it did in one shot”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown: Claude and Codex Subscriptions Provide Thousands in Subsidized Tokens
“Like, in Claude or in Codex is you just save so much money because they're subsidizing, like, you get thousands of dollars of tokens for your a hundred dollar per month or 200 dollar per month plan because you're using their platforms.”
Insight
Isenberg: Founders over-optimize debating OpenAI versus Anthropic frontier models
“You don't need to worry about, you know, is OpenAI a little bit better than Anthropic? Like, the reality is, you know, you can think of it as like Ferrari and Lamborghini, like both cars are going to go fast. And, you know, one day one car might go faster, and…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Claude Opus 4.6 creates agent teams while Codex requires direct reasoning prompts
“When I'm talking to Opus, I can tell Opus, build me a team, and here's what I want each member of the team to do. When I'm talking to Codex, I can't really tell it to build me a team, but I can tell it to think about stuff.”
Opinion
Isenberg: Sam Altman is right that this is the era of the 'idea guy'
“Sam Altman, the co-founder of OpenAI, just said that it is the era of the idea guy, and he is not wrong.”
Opinion
Greg Isenberg calls OpenAI Codex slightly worse than Cursor but most improved
“My take on Codex is it's a bit, yeah, it's a little worse than Cursor, But it's gains like the most most improved award.”
Prediction Held up
Multi-step AI video editing workflows will soon be baked into Sora
“I do think that, like, for everything I laid out, it's important for now, but it's gonna be baked into Sora's kind of suite, where you can edit clips, you can kind of double tap into this, and this entire process is gonna get, like, a lot faster and a lot chea…”
Insight
Courtney: Direct response marketing works best for bootstrapped businesses
“I think like if you don't have crap tons of money, like as in, if you don't have loads of funding from investors, like for example, chat open AI shouldn't do this style of marketing because they do not need to. They've got a crazy product, crazy traction, and …”
Opinion
Greg Isenberg: OpenAI's o3 model beats GPT-4o for finding startup ideas
“Now you're gonna wanna make sure that O three is clicked here. Sometimes by default, I think four O is clicked. But I find for questions like this, you're gonna wanna use O three. It's just gonna be a bit more effective.”
Insight
Meng To: AI requires explicit reference prompts for unique designs
“Because, you know, AI is very limited in the amount of context. It's very trained in a certain way by Claude, by OpenAI, but it's not trained to be unique. It's not, the only way it can be unique is if you tell it, and if you handhold it, and if you give it th…”
Prediction Held up
Isenberg: OpenAI Operator will eventually integrate native voice capabilities
“Yeah, I think I mean, it's only a matter of time, by the way, before operator adds voice anyways. They won't have to stitch it together with other voice agents.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fernando: OpenAI o3 launch will likely trigger reasoning model price drops
“Open AI is currently promised that the O three model will come out and the mini model will come out, which would be on par with this model. So that prices will also probably significantly drop as well because they just get more efficient with time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fernando: OpenAI's upcoming o3 model will take the industry by storm
“And so it's going to be really exciting when they actually dropped O three. I think a lot of people are going to be taken by storm of like, what's actually really going to come out from them. It's going to be a really, really big leap.”
Assertion Supported
Fernando: GPT-4o natively understands audio and tone, unlike DeepSeek R1
“So one thing I just learned very recently about GPT-IV and ChatGPT's Omni models is the fact that this model's breakthrough, a little bit different than R-I, is the fact that it can actually understand audio and tone and all these extra implications that we do…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Josephs: OpenAI sent Autopilot a cease and desist over ChatGPT portfolio
“OpenAI sent us a cease and desist, so we have to close that one down.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
PDF AI founders made hundreds of thousands monthly before OpenAI's native update
“A few of the PDFAI guys who are building in that space. We're pretty pissed to put it lightly about what happened with the recent updates to chat GPT. Cause they were making tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars a month.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: GPT-5 will upgrade AI from a co-pilot to a full autopilot
“GPT-IV gives you directions, builds you a decent car and co-pilots. And GPT-V is, will give you directions, build you a Mercedes and autopilots.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Phan: OpenAI and Microsoft will ultimately become AI cloud infrastructure providers
“I think the long-term economics for OpenAI and Microsoft which obviously owns about, we'll end up owning 45, 49% of it, is they're gonna have to be kind of a cloud provider. And they're going to want as many people to plug in as possible.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ross Mike: GPT-6 Astra is OpenAI's priciest model, priced similarly to Fable
“OpenAI's most expensive model. It's on par with Fable in terms of pricing, but if you have a codec subscription, very subsidized, and not only that, it's also very efficient, meaning it doesn't take as many steps to complete a task.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Codex Sites Access Likely Coming Soon For ChatGPT Plus Users
“But I would imagine that access is probably coming really soon for plus, plus people.”
Assertion Supported
Brown: GPT-5.5 API Costs Double That of GPT-5.4
“Yeah, if you use it via the API, it's twice as expensive as Ah, the recent model, which is, ah, GPT-Five-Point-Four. It's twice as expensive.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brown: GPT-5.5 API Costs 20% More Than Claude Opus 4.7
“And then it's also 20% more expensive than Opus 4.7.”
Assertion Supported
Altman announced GPT-5.3 Codex 18 minutes after Anthropic released Opus 4.6
“Opus four, six came out and then Sam Altman put together a quick tweet. I want to say like maybe 18 minutes later announcing GPT five, three codex”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: OpenAI Quietly Launched Skills Support for Codex
“Quietly, OpenAI has launched skills. So we've seen Anthropic and Claude skills. A lot of people talking about that, including myself, how amazing it is. But quietly, we have Codex now officially supports skills.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: OpenAI Adopted Anthropic's Agent Skills Standard for Codex
“So what's really cool is they're just following the agent skills IO standard, the one by Anthropic.”
Assertion Supported
Nixon: OpenAI AgentKit lets users build agentic workflows for free without code
“OpenAI just launched Agent Kit, and I think it's important to understand what it is because it lets anybody build agentic workflows without writing code for free.”