The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Carson warns against building workflows on frontier models to avoid lock-in
“Like, if you are, if your whole engineering you know, motion is happening inside of clock code or inside of codex, What are you doing? Like, because they are not incentivized to make it reasonable for you long term, right? They're going to lock you into their …”
Ryan Carson Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 36:59 Most Valuable Skill of 2026: Managing AI Agents
Prediction Held up
Fully autonomous AI developer tools will build entire apps within two years
“Like Devin's trying to create that right now where like I could just give them this idea for an app and then I could go eat pizza and come back and It's just done after many iterations. And so that is like the full, that's where I think this is ultimately goin…”
Riley Brown Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 22:55 How to build your AI App with Cursor, Firebase, Vercel (Full Tutorial)
Opinion
Carson: Devin is one of the best software factories in tech
“I think it's one of the best software factories in the industry. It's not cheap. But it's good.”
Ryan Carson Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 6:07 Most Valuable Skill of 2026: Managing AI Agents
Disclosure
Carson spends $60 per run for automated Devin browser tests
“And I have a it's called end-to-end sign-up test, and that runs three times a week because it is expensive. It's probably 60 bucks in tokens because it's doing a lot of, it's doing a lot of browser testing”
Ryan Carson Jul 24, 2026 ▶ 25:49 Most Valuable Skill of 2026: Managing AI Agents
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