The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Shipper predicts OpenAI and Anthropic launch agent app stores within a year
“And I bet you within a year the opening eyes in the anthropics of the world will have app stores for apps that are built specifically to be used inside of these services. Maybe even cursor too. I don't have any insight on any of this.”
Dan Shipper Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 29:06 GPT 5.6 SOL IS HERE! How to use it.
Assertion Supported
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Greg Isenberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 0:11 Claude Fable 5 is BANNED. What to do?
Assertion Contradicted
Liu: OpenAI and Anthropic have over $80 billion in combined revenue
“Take opening Ionanthropic alone, right? Let's just say they have a combined revenue probably of like eighty million plus, right? Or eighty billion, sorry, plus right now up from like basically zero a few years ago.”
Howie Liu Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 12:01 Making $$ with AI Agents
Assertion Supported
Moritz Kremb: OpenAI permits OpenClaw OAuth connections while Anthropic officially bans them
“Because OpenAI has stated that they're okay with it. So for them, it's definitely fine to use this OAuth method with Anthropic. It's kind of a gray area a bit. I think officially in their terms of service, it says you're not allowed to do that.”
Moritz Kremb Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 26:42 I fixed OpenClaw so it actually works (full setup)
Assertion Supported
Moritz Kremb: Anthropic is banning users for connecting OpenClaw via OAuth
“And some people have been getting banned over it. So I do recommend that if you, if you're scared about your account getting banned, just create a new one, create a new account and put the 20 dollar plan on that.”
Moritz Kremb Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 27:10 I fixed OpenClaw so it actually works (full setup)
Assertion Contradicted
Shipper: OpenAI and Anthropic do not really offer fine-tuning anymore
“In that case, like, you have to use open-source models, because none of the major model companies, or at least OpenAnthropic, don't really do fine-tuning anymore.”
Dan Shipper Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 33:04 GPT 5.6 SOL IS HERE! How to use it.
Assertion Partly supported
Brown: GPT-5.5 API Costs 20% More Than Claude Opus 4.7
“And then it's also 20% more expensive than Opus 4.7.”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 47:18 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Assertion Partly supported
Anthropic used Remotion to generate early product launch videos
“Anthropic did this when they first started doing their product launches. They were just launching them With ReMotion videos.”
Riley Brown Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 15:30 Stop using Claude. Start using Codex?
Assertion Supported
Gaskill: Anthropic built MCP as a universal tool translator
“Anthropic built MCP to basically sit as this translator in between your tools, so that Claude can still just speak English, and your tools can just speak their languages, and this MCP speaks every language, and then just translates your calls from your agent t…”
Remy Gaskill Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 32:50 Building AI Agents that actually work (Full Course)
Assertion Supported
Altman announced GPT-5.3 Codex 18 minutes after Anthropic released Opus 4.6
“Opus four, six came out and then Sam Altman put together a quick tweet. I want to say like maybe 18 minutes later announcing GPT five, three codex”
Morgan Linton Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 1:43 Claude Opus 4.6 vs GPT-5.3 Codex
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: OpenAI Adopted Anthropic's Agent Skills Standard for Codex
“So what's really cool is they're just following the agent skills IO standard, the one by Anthropic.”
Greg Isenberg Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 1:16 OpenAI Releases ChatGPT AI Agent Skills
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