The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 180 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Morris: Value-add buyers must hire agents who represent developers and know neighborhoods
“So I would say a great realtor that knows that particular area knows when I say market knowledge knows that neighborhood. Like the back of their hand and also has rep developers.”
O'Neill: Most real estate investors fear California entitlements
“I believe that you and most people involved in real estate investments whether it's office storage, multifamily across all the spectrums of the different investment vehicles, they're fearful of the entitlements and especially fearful in the state of California…”
Umbanhowar: Real estate buyers should bring architects onto site due diligence
“I think it makes total sense to get an architect and have that person on board for you as an extra set of eyes as you're looking at property.”
Umbanhowar: Non-judgmentalism is overrated because humans naturally judge constantly
“Non-judgmental. I think humans in general, we judge each other all the time, and I think we need to get over that and to say we judge each other. We're not the executioner, but we're always judging each other. That's how our brain works. So I don't like when p…”
Any artwork selling for over $1 million qualifies as blue-chip art
“Blue chip can be really taken into two things. One, it's probably a million dollars and up is a blue chip artwork. Because if you're even a modern art or present day contemporary artists, but your artworks are selling for over a million, you're considered blue…”
Emerging art can quickly 20x, while blue-chip art appreciates 5-10% annually
“The emerging artists have the capability of increasing their value five, 10, even 20 X. Absolutely. Quickly. Not all of them, but they can. Whereas the more stable blue chip artists, you know, they increase every year, five, 10%, it keeps going up, slowly but …”
Unauthenticated fine art is either worth millions or effectively worthless
“Unfortunately, your artwork is either worth all the money, four or five million, Or it's just a very nice decoration for your bathroom. There is no in between. There is no gray area in this. From my world.”
Young creators view fine art as a status symbol but feel intimidated
“Some of the clients are extremely intimidated, especially the young wealthy clients, you know, YouTubers that are 25 years old and they want to have art. It's like, it's a bling if you want. It's a buzzword that they all want. They want to have the nice car. T…”
Sani: Outskirts of major metros withstand recessions better than isolated markets
“So I would buy a property just on the outskirts of Indianapolis itself. Right. So that means, you know, well, there's going to be more money. There's going to keep on coming into that particular sub economy and you're going to be fine. So versus now I go inves…”
Sani: Tenants will commute slightly further for renovated periphery units
“And you have to understand investors who do own right in the hub, sometimes they don't want to do major renovations to the unit. Because, you know, they're spoiled. I'm going to get the premium rent anyway. So now if you do a major renovation to your unit, who…”
Morris: Institutional Anchors Create 24-Hour City Activity in Secondary Markets
“What I figured out was that, that a proxy for the 24 hour city is you now go to a city that's not a 24 hour city. Like for example, you know, Indianapolis. I do not, but I know Pittsburgh, which is where I'm originally from. Pittsburgh is certainly not what th…”
Sani: Begin replacement property search once sale contingencies clear in 1031s
“So you should be looking the day. The contingencies are removed on your down leg. The property that you're selling, your own property that you're selling, the day you remove all the contingencies, or the buyer for your property removes their contingencies on y…”
Raffae: Working with friend realtors can cost deals due to over-caution
“When you're dealing with a realtor that is a friend, right? He's extra cautious. And sometimes that extra cautiousness could cost you a property. Like it's hard for me to, for example, to tell my friend, oh, this is a great investment because in case something…”
Raffae: Real estate beats businesses through leverage despite lower cash flow
“I mean, businesses is another way to invest, and businesses usually gives you much more cash flow than real estate does, but the business, in 99% of the cases, you gotta pay cash for the business. Real estate, you put five, 10, 15, 20% down, and the rest is th…”
Raffae: Storage facility brokers favor established operators over new investors
“What I mean by specialty is that even the realtors that they deal with storage units. They have their own clientele of storage unit owners, and they work together. And sometimes for you to come in, they, they'd rather deal with somebody that is familiar with t…”
Morris: Investors flipping multiple active developments face extreme bankruptcy risk
“This is when I see people lose big money in real estate, is they're the people that are buying, and developing. They may buy a great you know, a terrible house on a great piece of land. They tear the house down, and now they're in the middle of this great big …”
Morris: High realtor income does not correlate with building wealth
“One thing I also noticed is that there was not a correlation between how much money they made and how much wealth they built. Sometimes it went in opposite directions, which means, you know, the more somebody made, maybe the more debt they had being independen…”
Morris: Affordability index is the best indicator of market tops
“One thing that people don't understand is even when I know we're at the top of the market, closer to the top than the bottom, after you've had appreciation for a long period of time, probably the best indicator is the affordability index.”
Morris: Invest when 20 to 25 percent of a neighborhood has improved
“So the sweet spot, I would say these are just rough numbers, you know, 20 to 25%. It's already are already gorgeous by the time you're at 75%. So now, now, you know, seven out of the 10 houses on my street are like Totally amazing. Now that one ramshackle one …”
Morris: Deal principals must put in at least 10% equity for savvy investors
“Well, first of all savvy investors will not invest in a deal unless the principles have Really a rule of thumb is 10% of their own money.”
Morris: Remote real estate investors should cluster acquisitions in one area
“My first thing is invest where, you know, or invest, invest where you live really nearby. But if I were going outside the area and I were doing, and I made a decision to go outside the area, I would think about buying a few in the same area so that you then do…”
Lane: Legal permitting is the mandatory first step in short-term rental underwriting
“So, it is the first check mark To sort of look at when you're sort of underwriting a property is, is a short term rental even allowed in this area? Cause it can very quickly be like, all right, let's stop pencils down. Because I mean, if it's restricted, you s…”
Morris: Geopolitical conflict and oil volatility are driving mortgage rates higher
“War keeps the price of oil volatile. Volatile oil prices feed the risk of higher inflation, and inflation risk pushes the rate of the bonds higher. Higher bond rates equal higher mortgage rates. So that's how the war ties directly to your interest rates.”
Morris: Luxury home sales signal liquidity and confidence returning to housing
“When these huge luxury part properties start trading hands again, it tells you that liquidity and confidence are coming back into The whole system and that confidence eventually trickles down to the move up buyer, then the first time buyer, then the renter who…”
Morris: Investors Should Target Experienced Investment Specialists Rather Than Busiest Agents
“You don't want the busiest person. You also don't want someone that doesn't have a lot of experience representing investors and approach that person and see what kind of deals they're finding for their clients and then become a very easy client for them to sel…”
Morris: Buying a home enables safer leverage by offsetting rent
“There are some very specific added benefits to do it with your own house. You know, you can get into it, you can get into this investment being your own home at better rates with less money down and all that sort of thing. So you can add a decent amount of lev…”
Umbanhowar: Young architects lack the wisdom that only direct practice provides
“It's a profession of wisdom, and I don't think there are young architects who have that wisdom. You can't buy it. You have to do it.”
Morris: Mastery Increases Discipline Difficulty Rather Than Making It Easier
“I came up with a mantra for it, which is, ah, the more you can do, the more you can do. So, you know, as I get better and better, now my pose gets a little, you know, I bend the knee closer to 90 degrees, and I could be, you know, 10 times better than I was wh…”
Umbanhowar: Renovation budgets should prioritize living areas and elevation changes
“I would spend it in the living areas. That's where we do our living. So kitchen upgrades, living room upgrades. Expand to the outside. If you're a one story, make it a second story and put a primary bedroom on a second floor. I think those sort of changes in, …”
Morris: Find investor-friendly agents by asking dominant brokerage managers directly
“A great way to do it would be to physically walk into a brokerage in that area and ask to see the manager. And then say, Hey, I want, you know, I'm a potential buyer. I'd like five minutes of your time or 10 minutes of your time... And I would walk into that o…”
Lane: Short-term rental hosts should provide digital guidebooks instead of binders
“The thing now that I'm, we do and that I'm people should be doing is the electronic guidebook.”
Morris: Budget near-term property capex across three years immediately
“If they're like, well, you know, next couple of years, two, three years, you'll need it. I'm treating it like it's happening now or certainly budgeted into the next three years. Future expenses. Yeah, that's right. I'm taking the total expense of full rewiring…”
Lee: Representing Builders Is The Holy Grail for Real Estate Agents
“When I started selling real estate as an agent, I would represent some builders cause that's kind of a, one of the holy grails of being a real estate agent is you get the listing up front, you get the listing on the second time when they go to sell it.”
Muller: When shown 100 photos, people will always laser in on the bad one
“You put up on the monitor, a hundred photos. If I put up a hundred photos of you, and 99 of them are fucking, sorry my language, are just amazing. And then there's one where your chin was in, you have a double chin. You know which one you're going to? You know…”