Mar 30, 2026 · 22m · paul-morris
The Real Estate Setup I Haven’t Seen Since 2010
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Host Paul Mark Morris analyzes the macroeconomic fallout of Middle East geopolitical conflict, energy shocks, and Federal Reserve rate pauses across financial asset classes. He details why converging distress in commercial debt and a looming housing supply shortage create a generational real estate buying window not seen since 2010.
Statements from this episode (23)
Morris: US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, killing supreme leader
“February 28th, more than three weeks ago, the U.S. And Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Operation Epic Fury. That's the actual US term for it. And they killed Iran's supreme leader and dozens of their senior military officials.”
Morris: US Struck Over 7,000 Targets in Iran
“The US has struck more than 7000 targets in Iran since it started.”
Morris: Brent crude hit $115 per barrel, highest since 2022
“Brent crude hit a 115 dollars
Per barrel this week.
That is the highest that it's been since 2022.”
Morris: Persian Gulf oil production is down at least 10M barrels daily
“All combined Gulf oil production is down at least ten million barrels per day as of mid-March.”
Morris: US gas prices surged over 30% from $2.81 to $3.88
“The national average just under three months ago was two dollars and 81 cents per gallon, and now it's all the way up to three dollars and 88 cents per gallon.
That's really a huge increase of over 30%
In terms of the cost of gasoline going up.”
Morris: Wall Street abandons 2026 rate cut hopes, starts whispering about hikes
“Before this war, markets were pricing in two rate cuts for 2026, and now Wall Street is pricing in zero cuts this year, and some are starting to whisper about rate hikes.”
Morris: Federal Reserve raised 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%
“The Fed's new inflation forecast is at 2.7% for 2026, up from their December estimate of 2.4.”
Morris: Mortgage rates dropped below 6% pre-war for first time since 2022
“Two weeks before the war, mortgage rates dip below six percent for the first time since 2022.”
Morris: Geopolitical crises typically hurt financial markets for only a month
“Historically, geopolitical crises hurt markets for about a month and then recover.”
Morris: David Solomon noted market reaction has been unexpectedly benign
“Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said it best this week. The market reaction has been more benign than you'd think, but I'm not dismissing the risk.”
Morris: Gold suffers worst single-week drop since 1983, plummeting over 10%
“Gold just had its worst week since 1983 down more than 10% in a single week. Gold is now trading around 4500 dollars to 4600 dollars per troy ounce down from 5600 in January.”
Paul Morris: JPMorgan Maintains $6,300 Gold Target for Year-End
“JP Morgan still targets gold at 6300 dollars by year end.”
Morris: February home sales rose nearly 2% with applications up 10%
“Existing home rate sales were up almost two percent in February. Purchase applications were up 10% year over year.”
Morris: Mortgage rates could hit 6.5% to 6.7% if conflict extends
“In 48 hours, mortgage rates jump back above six percent. They're now a fair amount higher than that and potentially heading as high as six and a half to 6.7% if the conflict extends.”
Morris: $1.5 trillion in commercial loans face mandatory refinancing by 2026
“Close to one trillion dollars in loans taken out at three to four percent interest rates, Are coming due right now. Combined with 2025, we're looking at one and a half trillion that are forced to have a refinancing event.”
Morris: Distressed apartment sales hit $13.8 billion, up 12x since 2020
“Distressed apartment sales hit 13.8 billion dollars in mid 2025, up from 1.1 billion in 2020. That's a 12 time increase in distress.”
Morris: Multifamily construction starts are down 70% from peak
“Multifamily construction starts are down 70%. From peak, that's the lowest since 2013.”
Morris: Multifamily construction drought will cause shortage by 2027
“If you're a patient, disciplined buyer, that supply drought translates into a shortage by twenty-twenty-seven and continuing on.”
Morris: Data center rents are up 50% since 2022
“Data centers, rents are up 50% since 2022. No other real estate sector is anywhere close.”
Morris avoids office real estate, citing 83% delinquency on matured loans
“83% of office loans that matured are showing delinquencies, and I'm not touching office space for that reason.”