Federal Reserve

“What this means is you can expect your 30 year mortgages to bounce roughly around where they are now. They may take a small reduction, but they're not going to take a major dip.”

“Politicians from both sides of the aisle, they want the economy to do great, and they want rates to come down. They're likely not going to get both.”

“As a general rule of thumb, bad economic news is pretty good for real estate, and really good economic news is generally bad for real estate because it affects the interest rates and what the Fed is willing to do with interest rates in the opposite direction.”

“Before this war, markets were pricing in two rate cuts for 2026, and now Wall Street is pricing in zero cuts this year, and some are starting to whisper about rate hikes.”

“The Fed's new inflation forecast is at 2.7% for 2026, up from their December estimate of 2.4.”

“The war sets the oil price. The oil price sets the gas price. The gas price drives inflation, and inflation handcuffs the Fed, stops them from acting. The Fed and inflation Drive the ten-year treasury. That's the government bond whose interest rate, mortgage r…”

“So, if your investment plan requires the Fed to rescue you with cheap money this year, you don't have a plan, you have a hope, that's not the way to invest or buy. So, underwrite a purchase, underwrite an investment at today's rates, and if you get a decrease,…”

“Goldman Sachs just pushed its forecast for the next cut all the way out from 2026 to 20 27.”

“The Fed rate sits at 3.5% to 3.75 unchanged since the cuts stopped in late 2025 and markets put the odds of no change next week at roughly 99%.”

“The May meeting minutes revealed that the majority of Fed officials now see the possibility of raising rates if the war continues and if inflation persists as a result of it.”

“Less inflation pressure means less reason for the fed to stay aggressive, which over time is friendly to mortgage rates. So It's, what's happening is that the inflationary pressure is not forcing the Fed to increase rates, but we're probably not at a point whe…”

“Build your numbers assuming rates stay in the mid-sixes Through the summer.”

“If the answer is only if the Fed cuts, then you don't have a deal. You have a lottery ticket with closing costs.”

“Did the Fed treat the oil spike and gasoline cost spike as temporary or as a real threat? That answer will set the direction of mortgage rates for the near future.”

“Last week, futures market put the odds at one in three of a quarter point hike.”

“This week, the Federal Reserve meets, and for the first time in years, the live debate is not whether there's going to be a rate cut, but rather whether there's going to be a rate hike.”

“The rescue is not coming. Plan on today's numbers. If something better ends up showing up, that is a bonus.”

“The futures market currently puts it at roughly a seven in 10 odds on a quarter point hike By September. Not a cut. A hike.”

“The federal reserve met this past Wednesday and there was no cut. In fact, three officials voted to raise rates and mortgage rates hit a one year high anyway. And that was 6.66%. According to Freddie Mac”

“The Fed is not going to rescue your deal with a rate cut in the near future”

“One week ago, there was more than 72% chance, according to the odds makers, of a September hike, and this morning, the odds are down to 60%, and that is 60% of a hold”