why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Bajaj: Krutrim effectively combines OpenAI, Nvidia, and AWS into one startup
“Krutrim is one of them. So ambitious. You know, it is effectively open AI plus Nvidia plus your Microsoft or AWS all in one, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kamath: Nvidia GPUs suffer severe memory bottlenecks during voice inference
“And media chips are generally very bad for voice inference. Like if you have 40 gigabytes of RAM in a NVIDIA GPU, you can generally, if you want to do real time, like a hundred milliseconds, you can use maybe two or four gigabytes of it for our models. And bey…”
Insight
Padval: Jensen Huang avoids one-on-ones to prevent workplace politics
“He says, one-on-one means politics, because I say something in a different context to one person, they go off and use that context to get things done. And sometimes reality of what our conversation was and what happens is different. So he says, when I get a re…”
Opinion
Nvidia's 40x PE valuation is not outrageous given its 75% margins
“Nvidia is the poster child, right? I mean, that's the one everyone talks about in Nvidia. Again, I haven't looked at that. Don't look, I don't follow stocks on a daily basis, by the way, I'm not a research analyst or a portfolio manager, but at 35 to 40 times …”
Assertion Supported
Padval: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang manages 60 direct reports
“He has 60 reports. I don't know any CEO who can manage 60 reports, but I think Jensen can.”
Opinion
Namasivayam: AMD and competitors are just catching up to Nvidia's stack
“So they imagined a world where you know, you kind of needed the complexity Of semiconductors. And the entire stack. Even back in 2016. Which is why NVIDIA is at the forefront of technology, even today. AMD and others are just catching up.”
Insight
Manickam: Indian Chip Solutions Will Be More Practical and Frugal Than Nvidia's
“I always say that when you a solution coming out of India will be completely different for the same problem. Let's say you give a problem to, you know, to Nvidia and to a local company here, right? The solution will be different, right? And I think our solutio…”
What-if
Manickam: Nvidia would not have survived long-term without the AI boom
“If AI was not there, you know, NVIDIA would not have been able to survive in the long term, right?”
Opinion
Manickam: Nvidia's dominance stems from optimizing hardware for its CUDA software
“The reason why NVIDIA is successful is because they actually had this software, AI software, they call it CUDA, right? So now they had that hardware that runs this CUDA very, very efficiently.”
Opinion
Mayya: AMD cannot compete with Nvidia's CUDA architecture for LLMs
“Everything in AI is going to require NVIDIA, and AMD is not, AMD is good, but it's not like, it can't compete with CUDA. It's good for consumer devices, right? But somebody building the next LLM, you're locked into Nvidia for the time being, right?”
Insight
Siddharth: AI scaling is constrained by compute, data, and algorithmic research
“And I think all the labs are scaling this up, and we are constrained by algorithmic research, compute, and data, and companies like Turing Advance the data pillar, NVIDIA advances the compute pillar, and of course the labs advance the algorithmic research pill…”
Assertion Partly supported
Nair: Musk built an AI data center in 8 months, besting Zuckerberg
“What he did do is stand up an entire data center and, you know, work with NVIDIA and get all the chipsets necessary to go stand up something in eight months, which Mark Zuckerberg himself said that he thought it'll take three years.”
Opinion
Namasivayam: Nvidia's early chip interconnect bet enabled modern AI workloads
“I think even things like communication speeds on chip interconnects, like we were going way ahead of what the rest of the industry was doing. It seems like a small little thing, but that made all the difference when it comes to working with the kind of workloa…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sanghi: AI capital investment is much larger than dot-com boom
“I wouldn't know this hundred X, but I think it is much larger, but you would say investments. If you look at in terms of pure investment is much larger. I mean, you look at it the way Nvidia stock has gone up. Right. So it's from pure investment perspective is…”
Assertion Supported
Sanghi: Nvidia H100 lead times are 4-6 weeks, Blackwell takes 6 months
“You want to each 100 is four to six weeks. It takes time. It used to take six months. Now it takes four to six weeks. Now, of course the new black belt series takes six months”
Assertion Supported
Manickam: Nvidia charges $20,000 to $30,000 per module due to zero competition
“But because they're only game in town, they can charge 20,030 thousand dollars per, per module.”
Insight
Manickam: NVIDIA cannot maintain a 90% market share indefinitely
“I always believe that you can't hold like 90% market share in anything. Right. So eventually, yes, you know, I know how quickly it is, you know, anybody's guess.”
Opinion
Reddy: Silicon Graphics was the 1990s equivalent of OpenAI and Nvidia
“And Silicon Graphics at that time was what the open AI of today is. Yes. Nvidia, open AI, any one of those”
What-if
SoftBank made 4x on Nvidia but missed out on 30x returns
“You went in on a leverage basis and you made, you know, I think the number was, you know, kind of probably at least four times your money, which is a great result, but. It could have been 25, 30 times his money.”
Disclosure
Kamath: Smallest AI writes custom GPU kernels for NVIDIA hardware
“And we go right to the level of The NVIDIA architecture to even write our own kernels. So we are not scared of touching any part of the stack.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Namasivayam: Nvidia Employee Tenure Nears Ten Years Due to Leadership Loyalty
“NVIDIA is one of the few companies in the Bay where the average employee tenure is probably closer to double digits than single digits, at least when I was working. Primarily because of the loyalty which the leadership team And Jensen engenders in the entire w…”