“Especially seed and pre-seed managers. You're underwriting as much as the track record, but also you as people. We're forecasting how you'll behave for the next 10 to, you know, a lot of cases, 20 plus years. And we're forecasting how you know, what kind of decisions that you'll make. We're forecasting how you'll evolve as a person. Because when we bet on you, that fund will take 10 to 12 years for it to come back. And then another vintage, so we're talking about a multi-decade relationship.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Raja Doddala
Insight
Doddala: Pre-seed and seed funds perform best sized between $25M and $125M
“For seed and pre-seed, we've taken the approach of, we think smaller managers are better suited to invest in seed and pre-seed. We, you know, we have a long tail of 25, you know, ish firms in, in that and most of those we've added in the last sort of three yea…”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 11:002024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
Disclosure
Churchill drops seed GPs who scale fund sizes past $125M to $150M
“And if you quote, scale beyond that size, you likely won't be part of our portfolio anymore. We think, you know, especially seed and pre-seed is sort of a boutique business, and we don't think it should scale to hundreds of millions of dollars. So if you end u…”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 23:542024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
PredictionOpen · timeframe Jul 2029
Doddala: 60% of 2021-2022 unicorns will probably never realize their valuations
“I think, 60% of the unicorns that were marked up in, you know, in our 20, 21, 20, 22, Are probably not going to ever realize their markups.”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 33:132024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
AssertionSupported
Doddala: The median venture exit outcome over 30 years is $90 million
“I looked at some data, the exit data for the last 25 or 30 years. Median outcome is about ninety million, believe it or not.”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 34:352024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
AssertionContradicted
Doddala: Only about 300 US public companies are currently worth over $1B
“If you look at all the public companies in the US today companies that are worth more than a billion is about 300 companies.”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 35:192024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
Insight
Doddala: $50M seed funds only need $220M in total outcomes for 3x net
“If you're a fifty million dollar seed fund, to do a three X, you have to produce a total of maybe two hundred and twenty million in total outcomes. There's a number of ways to do that, and they have a lot more optionality. In their outcomes than a large fund.”
Raja DoddalaJul 5, 2024▶ 36:262024 VC Updates, IPO Trends, And Fundraising Advice with Churchill’s Raja Doddala I Neon Show
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