Economist Professor Arun Kumar analyzes India's long-term 2047 developed nation targets and the required sustained growth rates.
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Kumar: India's Real GDP Growth Is 1.5% to 2%, Not 7%
“So, 55% of the production from the organized sector may be rising at seven percent. That gives you 3.75% rate of growth. But the 45%, which is from the unorganized sector that is declining at five percent, that gives you -2.25. So your real rate of growth is n…”
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Kumar: India's actual post-demonetization GDP growth is only 1.5% to 2%
“So our rate of growth is not six, seven percent as the government would like us to believe, but since demonetization, the average may be two percent or one and a half percent or something thereabouts, huh?”
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Kumar: India is actually the world's ninth largest economy, not the fifth
“Second is that because we are growing only at about two percent, not at six and a half, seven percent, we're about 42% less than the So instead of being about a 3.8 trillion dollar, we are probably only about 2.5 trillion. So in other words, we are still the n…”
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Kumar: India's True GDP Is Around $2.5 Trillion, Not $3.6 Trillion
“So I think we are probably at still 2.5 trillion dollars because in the last eight years since demonetization from 2016, we have not been growing at an average of six and a half, seven percent, but more like one or two.”
Opinion
Kumar: Indian Conglomerates Grow via Acquisitions, Not Innovation
“Indian chai balls have grown by acquisition, not by developing technology. Neither Tata's have developed technology, nor Adani's, nor Ambani's. Et cetera. They've imported technology and on the basis of imported technology, they've done it.”
Opinion
Kumar: India Accidentally Produces Elite Graduates While Failing 95%
“We accidentally produce 20, 30,000 world class people because they are excellent. They'll do well no matter what. Even poor decrepit education system will still produce these people. But what about the 95%? They're not at that level.”