The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: There will be no BDRs in one year
“There will be no BDRs in a year.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 1:03:39 How the smartest founders are winning in AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Sora will be the fastest app to reach 100M downloads
“I think this is going to be the most downloaded app in the history of the world in a short period of time. So I think it'll be like the fastest to get to a hundred million downloads.”
Shaan Puri Oct 3, 2025 ▶ 4:02 The App That’ll Be Bigger Than TikTok
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rydhan: A fully AI-generated song will likely hit number one in 2025
“If we were doing over under 20, 25 I might pick the under, you know, in 25, like, that would be a good bet.”
Furqan Rydhan Nov 26, 2024 ▶ 28:09 $100B Founder Breaks Down The Biggest AI Business Opportunities For 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Thrasio will go public at a $10B valuation
“They're going to go public at a ten billion dollar valuation.”
Shaan Puri Sep 17, 2021 ▶ 37:21 12 Startups Where Stock Grants Can Make You a Millionaire | My First Million #220
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Parr: David Protein on Track for ~$200M in Year-Two Sales
“So this year they're going to do close to two hundred million dollars in sales and roughly the second year of business.”
Sam Parr Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 21:08 This guy made Millions by inventing the $1 Menu
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: By next year, AI will generate synthetic multi-person video discussions
“Next year, it will be me and Yamini talking for 10 minutes about AI, and neither of us will have had the conversation.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 18:52 How the smartest founders are winning in AI
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Shkreli: Predicts the FTC's $60M antitrust ruling against him will be overturned
“And they won. So I'm appealing that, but they won a sixty million dollar hit against me. So until I figure that out, I'm sort of not, not in the market. It's very like bizarre ruling that I think will get overturned.”
Martin Shkreli Apr 20, 2023 ▶ 54:02 Martin Shkreli Reveals How He Made His First $100 Million (#445)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Current NFT protocols are temporary and won't exist in five years
“But I just think right now it's all half baked and all the Protocols are all made up and won't exist in five years.”
Andrew Wilkinson Dec 31, 2021 ▶ 1:38:41 The Milly Awards 2021
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Parr predicts Blockworks will sell for $40M-$50M within 18 months
“If I had a bet, I would imagine you're going to see this company sell for in the 40 to fifty million dollar range in the next 18 months.”
Sam Parr Jul 14, 2021 ▶ 19:08 When to Go All In on an Idea & the Crypto Exchange That Could Have Been | My First Million #200
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sanchez: California government will be biggest home buyer in downturn
“One of the interesting things is like the biggest buyers of homes in California, for instance in, in this downturn, in my opinion is going to be the government because they've essentially made it where if this is not your primary residence, you cannot buy thes…”
Codie Sanchez Apr 28, 2021 ▶ 42:14 How to Buy Distressed Assets, How to Network with Codie Sanchez | My First Million Ep. #176
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Parr: Zapier can reach a $50B valuation within five years
“Can it be worth 50? Yeah, definitely. Keep in mind, we're talking about like five years from today.”
Sam Parr Sep 17, 2021 ▶ 12:26 12 Startups Where Stock Grants Can Make You a Millionaire | My First Million #220
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Strip Mall Guy will hit 100K Twitter followers within six months
“By the way, he's at 22,000 followers now. He's at I bet you he's at a hundred in less than six months.”
Shaan Puri Sep 15, 2021 ▶ 21:47 Why You Should Take a Think Week Like Bill Gates | My First Million #218
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Peak will reach $100M in sales within three years
“I think there'll be I think there'll be at a hundred million in sales in the next three years. That's my prediction, my bet.”
Shaan Puri May 13, 2021 ▶ 11:37 How Virtual Horses are Making Millions & A Potential 9-Figure Company | My First Million #181
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