why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Mark O'Brien Targets $17M Sale Price for 94 Bank Street
“17.”
Insight
Mark O'Brien: Time and carrying costs kill most real estate deals
“Time will kill every deal. And often it does.”
Disclosure
Mark O'Brien Paid $5.5 Million for 94 Bank Street
“Five, five.”
Disclosure
Mark O'Brien Estimates $6M Renovation Budget for 94 Bank Street
“At this stage, closer to six.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mark O'Brien: Permitting delay for West Village townhouse has reached 2.5 years
“So it's been two and a half years that I've been waiting for permits.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Mark O'Brien projects $6.2M sale price for Fort Greene brownstone
“Six-two.”
Insight
O'Brien: Widening staircases with roof bulkheads fixes dark brownstone interiors
“Brownstones are notorious for being a little dark in the middle because there's no windows in the middle typically. So I widen the staircase and I put a lot of light and a bulkhead on the top so you get light down the middle”
Assertion Supported
Mark O'Brien: Below-grade basements bypass NYC Floor Area Ratio limits
“And this is basically free square footage, because, you know, in terms of FAR, floor area ratio, they don't count a base because it's below grade, so I try to make it, and right now you're not seeing it at the best I gotta put baseboard on, finish the floor, a…”
Disclosure
Mark O'Brien details $4.8M cost basis for Fort Greene brownstone
“2.8 to buy it. And then about two, I'm sorry, about two million to build it.”
Disclosure
Mark O'Brien shares his historical 1-1-3 NYC brownstone flipping math
“The numbers back then were basically you buy for a million, build for a million, and sell for three million. So you make a million bucks. So this house was 800,000. I built it for about 800,000, and I made a lot of mistakes.”