why aren't all 34 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Sanchez: Grant Cardone's fundraising terms are one-sided against retail investors
“I looked at some of the fundraising docs on Grant Cardone's stuff, and I don't think it's that great for retail investors. I think it's pretty one-sided.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Contrarian's operating businesses generate more revenue than its course community
“We'd make more money categorically from the businesses we own than from the community that we own, for instance. So, like, numerically, categorically, that's just the fact.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Codie Sanchez has never raised operating business capital from her audience
“I've never, ever raised money for any of the businesses that I invest in from my audience. Ever. Not once. Not once have I asked for a dollar for that.”
Insight
Sanchez: There are far better paths to $1M a year than doing a startup
“If what you're really going for is I want to make You know, 200,300 1500 thousand, a million bucks a year, and that, that is my goal, not to change the world. There's so many better ways to do it than do a startup, in my opinion.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: No one on the Forbes 100 got rich just investing in stocks
“If you look at the Forbes, 100 list, there is not one person on there who made their money from just investing in the stock market.”
Disclosure
Codie Sanchez bans company purchases from large corporate chains
“We have, like, a company policy. You're not allowed to buy from big corporate chains.”
Disclosure
Codie Sanchez estimates her current business portfolio value at $75M–$100M
“Well, we have a portfolio that you could, I mean, it depends how you value it, but let's say it's worth about 75 to a hundred million dollars in, in portfolio value. A lot of car washes. Right now, a lot of car washes.”
Insight
Sanchez: Acquire distressed customer lists for zero dollars via revenue shares
“I would be out there right now going after every one of their client lists, even if they were unrelated and doing discounts and coupon codes, giving a rev share to the owner who probably could use it and taking their client space. And that's how I would buy di…”
Insight
Sanchez: Do not angel invest until you have made at least $500K to $1M
“Once you've made a few million dollars, and I mean that literally, then I think go into angel investing, or if you're on a path where You're making really good money and you've made at least half a million bucks. Then I think you can start angel investing, but…”
Insight
Sanchez: Do not speculate on stocks without an unfair advantage
“If you don't have an unfair advantage, if you can't like write down why specifically you're going to win instead of somebody else, you should be really careful speculating on stocks because the big boys don't really do it.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sanchez: California government will be biggest home buyer in downturn
“One of the interesting things is like the biggest buyers of homes in California, for instance in, in this downturn, in my opinion is going to be the government because they've essentially made it where if this is not your primary residence, you cannot buy thes…”
Insight
Codie Sanchez: Ideological and time freedom require financial freedom
“It's hard to be ideologically free. It's hard to be time free. It's hard to really have any freedom if you don't have financial freedom.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: 'Trad Wife' content accumulated 187 million TikTok views
“So I looked up the TikTok views for this search of Trad Wife, a hundred and eighty-seven million, which was wild”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Spirit Halloween pop-ups cost $10k–$50k to set up in weeks
“The average commercial, let's call it retail store, costs millions to throw up and takes months and Spirit or Halloween Express costs maybe 10 to 50,000 dollars to throw up and is up in days or weeks.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Average laundromat makes $100K–$500K revenue at 10%–15% margins
“The average laundromat makes somewhere around a hundred to 500,000 dollars a year. Like that's what a laundromat makes at 15 to 10 to 15% margins.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: AEI Private Events Require $25k-$50k Minimum Donation Plus Screening
“I think it's 25 or fifty-k. But you go through a screening process.”
Disclosure
Sanchez: In talks with UT and UATX for educational program
“I'm in talks right now with University of Texas and University of Austin, which is Joe Lonsdale's, ah, company, to do a program with them where we can push back on what I think is awful education that's taught at most institutions.”
Insight
Sanchez: Early market opportunity exists where people think you are crazy
“When people think you're a little crazy for doing something, there's usually at least some opportunity left. Otherwise, all the smart people would have moved first, and I'm not smarter than anybody else.”
Insight
Sanchez: Pack-and-ship store profits come from mailbox rentals, not shipping
“So essentially the money is not in the taping of boxes and the stuffing of stuffing to make sure stuff doesn't break. It's actually in the little mailboxes in the front.”
Insight
Sanchez: Modular homes only save cost and time when built at scale
“They're not That much cheaper, and they're not that much faster when you just drop one on your property. And I did a bunch of research, asked a bunch of people, they're kind of sexy, but they're not that much cheaper. But when they are cheaper is when you do t…”
Insight
Sanchez: Angel investors need 20 to 40 deals to get 1 to 4 winners
“The thing with angel investing is, you know, this, you need like 20, 30, 40 deals for every one to four that are going to go through.”
Insight
Sanchez: Investors must always check debt and lien priority before investing
“And like one thing I've realized about wealth over time is debt is just about everything you should always look for even before you do a startup investment. Is there any debt on the company? Am I in a first lien? Does that, you know, do I have first access to …”
Insight
Codie Sanchez: Networking with creators requires building and zero expectations
“You gotta be doing cool stuff to hang around cool people. Rule number one... You have to actually be out there creating thing to be around creators. So I think that's rule number one and it's to have the lowest expectations humanly possible”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Contrarian Thinking averages 100M monthly views and 5M subscribers
“It's got a couple 100,000 subscribers now, hoping to get to a million by the end of the year. And that media company overall gets about a hundred million views a month, like five million subscribers, which is kind of cool.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Hobby Lobby generates $7B in annual sales
“And apparently they do seven billion dollars a year in sale, which is wild.”
Disclosure
Sanchez: Attempted to buy three Halloween Express locations for $600k
“Basically we tried to buy it because we saw it was 600,000 dollars for a pop-up location, and I should make sure I get this right, but it was like three or four retail locations plus whatever last year's inventory was, so there was like a lot of there, they al…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Sanchez: Only 10% to 15% of Halloween store inventory is new annually
“They said that they have about 10 to 15% of the inventory is like the new concept. So like the euphoria outfit, for instance, as opposed to the witches, the lions, the wardrobes, whatever people do each year.”
Assertion Supported
Sanchez: Romance Novels Generate $1.3B in Annual Sales
“There's like, 1.3 billion dollars are sold of romance books a year.”
Disclosure
Codie Sanchez will transition Contrarian Thinking to advertise only owned products
“I think we're gonna change the model to only talk about the products of the businesses we own and our own products, so I'm kind of messing around with that, looking at, like, how the Daily Wire does it, for instance.”
Disclosure
Sanchez: Owned 25 to 30 laundromats throughout her career
“In total, I probably owned like, 25 or 30 laundromats over my career of laundromatting. But that first little portfolio was probably seven or eight.”
Disclosure
Sanchez: Best deal made several million dollars on an RV park acquisition
“The best deal that I've ever did was probably mostly from the land acquisition. So we basically bought a big plot of land that had an RV park on it. Also like a series of vending machines, also like a little area for people to camp and, you know go into nature…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sanchez: Tweet announcing Shop Genie investment brought in 30 franchise users
“Like we did a little tweet for them and a little announcement of investing in them, and they got like, 30 franchise users who have multiple franchises underneath them.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sanchez: 60% of temporary Yelp business closures became permanent
“60% of the businesses on Yelp that closed temporarily closed permanently.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sanchez: HomeGoods rotates almost all inventory twice weekly
“HomeGoods rotates its inventory almost entirely. I think it's twice a week, Tuesdays and Thursdays.”