why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2021
BitClout pre-allocated $55,000 to Shaan Puri's unclaimed profile
“And so when I went to the website without ever having used the damn thing, my account had 55,000 dollars sitting in it.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: BitClout supports deposits and purchases but lacks withdrawals
“You could transfer money in and you could buy coins, but there's no withdrawals right now. So I can go in and verify. I could claim my 50,000 dollars. What I can't do is put that in my bank account. That's a feature that conveniently is not available and not b…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2043
Puri predicts social networks will eventually be user-owned via crypto tokens
“I think I would bet that in the long horizon, let's call it 20 years These networks will be built in with, these networks will do this. They will have a currency for the users on the network. And so the users will, the users who contribute to the network will …”
Insight
Shaan Puri: Crypto backlash is driven by resentment of instant liquid wealth
“I think that people don't like when someone gets rich without quote unquote earning it, and I think what people saw is that the insiders, so the people who created it, or maybe the early buyers, they bought so early on the bonding curve, they got so early on, …”
Opinion
Shaan Puri: BitClout has a sub-5% chance of succeeding, but huge payoff
“I'm not saying that this one will work. I think there's still probably a sub five percent chance that this works. And I said, but if it works, the payoff is huge.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Puri predicts Twitter and LinkedIn will be decentralized in 1-10 years
“This is what the next Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebooks are going to look like in either one or 10 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaan Puri estimates a less than 2% chance BitClout succeeds
“I would say in the long run, this working in the long run, I think there's like a less than two percent chance this works in the long run. If it does work, my 100,000 dollars is going to be worth tens of millions of dollars, but that's the long run.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaan Puri: BitClout is 'brilliantly designed' and will grow
“This is designed brilliantly, and this will grow in the way that it's designed.”
Disclosure
Al-Naji: DeSo's core strategy is to avoid building end-user products
“But really, like, Sean, you're touching on our strategy, which is, we actually don't want to build any products at all. I didn't even want to launch BitClout, ideally.”
Disclosure
Al-Naji: I told celebrity investors to hold off using BitClout early
“No, no, that's actually mostly me. So we have a lot of people who are, like, really big names, not just in VC, but also, like, in Hollywood and all that stuff who bought DSO. And they asked me, like, Natter, like, is now the time, like, to really, like, bring …”
Assertion Supported
Al-Naji: Diamond App is already more popular than BitClout
“Diamondapp.com is actually more popular than BitCloud already now. So I think it just passed it, even though it launched like a week ago.”
Disclosure
Puri holds ~$50K of his own BitClout creator tokens
“Right now on BitCloud, let's say I have, I think my token, I have like 50,000 dollars of my own token. My current usage of BitCloud is pretty low.”
Disclosure
Shah invested approximately $1M into the crypto social network BitClout
“It's gotta be a million dollars.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2021
Jack Butcher's unclaimed BitClout profile accumulated roughly $150,000 in creator coin
“About one 50, I think, last time I looked at it.”
Disclosure
Shaan Puri invested $100,000 into BitClout within 48 hours
“So the first 24 hours I was hooked by the second 24 hours I put a 100,000 dollars into the platform.”
Assertion Supported
$170 million deposited into BitClout, mostly from Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia
“About a hundred seventy million dollars has been deposited onto this. Most of that is from their institutional backers like Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia and those other guys.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: BitClout preloaded profiles for the top 15,000 Twitter influencers
“For the top 15,000 influencers on Twitter, it's preloaded into the platform.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: Tier-one VCs are involved in BitClout
“And a bunch of the big name tier one VCs are involved in it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaan Puri: BitClout founder rewards will drive a massive creator hype cycle
“And so they're going to get a lot of big people to tweet this thing out, which is going to create this like enormous hype cycle.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shaan Puri: BitClout raised $150M to pre-fund top Twitter accounts
“They took the top 10,000 Twitter accounts and they had raised, I think, a hundred and fifty million dollars from VCs here in Silicon Valley. And they used it to basically pre-buy and invest in all those accounts.”