why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Luckey: Apple agreed to invest $275 billion in China to stay independent
“Apple's got 95% of their manufacturing in China. They agreed to invest. They've invested hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing capacity there. They've agreed to invest a further two hundred and seventy five billion dollars in Chinese manufacturing i…”
Opinion
DHH: Apple acted like a 'greedy dick' during HEY launch
“I'm so happy. Apple chose to be such a greedy dick about it.”
Opinion
Galloway: Unsubscribing from Big Tech is the fastest way to pressure Trump
“What I've noticed is the Trump administration only walks back things when the markets move, and the fastest way to make the markets move right now is to go after the companies that are 40% of the S&P by unsubscribing from Amazon, from Apple, from Microsoft pla…”
Insight
Founders acquired by giants like Apple shouldn't try fighting corporate bureaucracy
“You're going to be in this company, and you're going to see so many things that could be so much better, and you're going to try to do them. And for the first year, you're going to try to do them. You're, oh, you're actually going to make a little bit of headw…”
Opinion
Puri: Big Tech will reduce AR captioning hardware to a software feature
“And they're going to get there first, most likely, as to having the lightweight form factor. And at that point, captions might just be a feature Or an app on top of their thing. And so you're gonna waste a ton of money. I think doing, trying to get the hardwar…”
Opinion
Tesla's Competitive Advantage Is Overestimated Due to Apple and Google Software
“I just think that everyone overestimated their competitive advantage. And then at the end of the day, you've got all these legacy manufacturers and, you know, ultimately if Apple and Google are providing the interface that most people use, it barely matters, r…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Puri: Next trillion-dollar Apple equivalent will be a healthcare monitor
“I don't think the next Apple is a phone company. I think the next Apple, which is gonna be a trillion dollar company that has that's gives you kind of like a consumer device. I think it's going to be a healthcare monitor. I think it's gonna be something that i…”
Opinion
Mazzeo: Apple lost podcast dominance to Spotify and YouTube over taste
“I mean, you could argue that Apple lost the entire podcast business based on, like, based on their religion around taste.”
Opinion
Shaan: Meta has an uncontested lead in smart glasses as rivals fail
“I think it's interesting because it's kind of uncontested right now. Like maybe Apple will get in the game. Maybe. If they still have, like, the juice to do it, Snapchat seems to have fallen out. The famous, like, I forgot what the thing was called. Magic leap…”
Disclosure
Cody Ko Bypassed Apple App Store Reviews Using a 7-Day Trigger
“I wrote some code so that the internal database was timed because I knew the app review process took like a week. Right. So then basically after seven days, It would release all the dirty captions. So I got by the Apple review system.”
Opinion
Puri: Hello Sunshine's $900M sale is a massive acqui-hire like Beats
“So I think this is like a Beats by Dre acquisition is kind of what I see it as, which is basically somebody being like, cool, we get Reese and then some stuff. Great. I think that's basically like when Apple bought Beats and they're like, great, we get, you kn…”
Assertion Partly supported
Puri: iOS opt-outs cause Facebook to miss 40% of ad conversions
“Even when you send it, you show a Facebook ad to somebody, they click it and they go buy a product from you. Facebook's only catching like 60% of those conversions. It doesn't know about the other 40% because they've opted out of tracking or it didn't work.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Jobs did Isaacson biography so kids would know him
“So there is a devastating line in Steve Jobs' biography by Walter Isaacson, because Walter was collaborating with him as Steve was dying. And he told Walter one of the reasons he wanted to do this biography is because he wanted his kid, he sacrificed so much o…”
Opinion
Steve Jobs Consistently Convinced Reporters to Drop Critical News Stories
“Every time I would talk to him from time to time, and every time it was the same thing. It was like this, he had this ability to make you believe That what you were doing was not the right story, and that this was the way to do it.”
Insight
Tech Employees Leak Info Out of Ego, Impatience, or Grievance
“People that would leak stuff to me that worked at Apple or Facebook, some of them were so, just so excited to say, oh my god, I worked on this thing, and it was like, and they just want it out there, and they don't have the patience, and you know, and others o…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Puri: Apple will eliminate Vision Pro battery cord within five years
“Five years from now, this thing is going to be incredible because they're going to solve all these annoying problems. It's going to become lighter weight. They're going to get rid of this cord. That's a battery that I have to put in my pocket while I'm using i…”
Insight
Puri: Passionate High-Net-Worth Ecosystems Like Tesla Enable Lucrative Niche Businesses
“It's like Rolex owners or things like that. Like these high net worth communities that are super passionate and they're locked into that ecosystem. You know, Apple being the biggest example of this, like the big, like the Apple blogs that's that were out early…”
Assertion Supported
Saylor: Bitcoin Hit $1T Faster Than Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, or Google
“It took Google 22 years to get to a trillion. It took Amazon 24 years to get to a trillion. It took Apple 42 years to get to a trillion. It took Microsoft 44 years to get to a trillion. It took Bitcoin 12”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Buying FAANG stocks outperformed top VC returns over 10 years
“If you had just brought, bought the fang companies, so Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google in the 10 years it outperformed all VCs or sorry, It outperformed even this sort of top like expected returns of venture capital. So the public market, if you just bought th…”
What-if
DHH: Apple App Store fight pushed me to Linux and custom OS
“If I hadn't had that experience, would I build my own Linux distribution that is now used by tens of thousands of people? Would I have discovered this wonderful new world of the Linux operating system, of Hyperland, of Arch, of mechanical keyboards, and all th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rydhan: Founders Inc. hosted roughly 40 Vision Pro developers in residency
“When the Vision Pro came out, we did it. We had about 40 Vision Pro devs. We probably had the largest concentration of Vision Pro devs out of Apple.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Ryan Cohen's $250M Apple stake from 2017 is worth over $1B
“He put two hundred fifty million into Apple in 2017. That stake is now worth over a billion.”
Assertion Supported
Parr: Ryan Cohen Placed Entire $500M Chewy Payout Into Two Stocks
“He sold it for three and a half billion dollars. Well, when he made his money, I think he made roughly five hundred million dollars. He put virtually 100% of it into two stocks, Apple and Wells Fargo.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: 70% of Teenagers in the United States Own Apple AirPods
“70% of all U.S. Teens have AirPods.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Puri: Aunt Flow reached high seven-figure run rate and supplies Apple stores
“And so they're at like, you know, they're definitely, you know, sort of like high seven figures run rate where they have all these great contracts and they have, you know, they're the official dispenser for all the Apple stores and for like, you know, the whol…”
Assertion Supported
Dan Held: Apple's early App Store inherited iTunes's 255-character title limit
“Apple at the time when they really originally built the app store, they forked it from iTunes. And so there's an old character limit that they had for titles of songs, which is 255 characters, but they also allowed that character limit for app titles.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: An intruder invaded our office demanding unreleased Apple Watch plans
“Six years ago a schizophrenic guy in my city thought that because we worked with Apple, we had the Apple watch before the Apple watch came out. He thought we had the Apple watch plans and he showed up in our office in like a super manic state quivering and lik…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parr: Vintage computers will become really popular collectibles
“I think these types of like old computers, these vintage computers, I think these are going to get really popular.”