Luck determines the magnitude of founder success, not the baseline probability
Shaan Puri · Drunk Business Ideas That Could Make You Millions · Mar 8, 2022 · at 33:13
Shaan Puri and Sam Parr discuss whether mega-founders like Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg would achieve extreme wealth if they entered different industries or eras.
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“I think luck plays a part in the magnitude of the success, but not the probability of success. So I think all of them, the probability of success for them is all at 90 plus percent. They would all be good at what they do, Positive impact, you know, make millions of dollars over their career, and be, like, considered top of their field in whatever field they go to. The magnitude of success, the fact that they end, you know, Bezos ends up being worth hundreds of billions of dollars, that I think is much more luck of the bounce on which opportunity you took versus others.”
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