The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 647 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Russell: Tesla's vision system fails to stop for child crash dummies
“Like, literally, if you put, like, a, you know, a crash dummy right in front of the car like a child pedestrian crash dummy, like, it doesn't come to a safe stop, like, at a reasonable speed.”
Camera-only driver assistance systems fail basic crash dummy stopping tests
“Reality is it is great to see some improvements for some basic level of assisted driving capabilities, but it doesn't solve some of the fundamentals of what you need to do to prevent accidents. Like literally, if you put a crash dummy right in front of the car…”
Hoffman: GPT-4 already diagnoses better than majority of human GPs
“And for example, a researcher at Microsoft, again, Peter Lee, has written an excellent book about showing how GPT-IV can already do medical diagnoses better than, you know, the majority of human GPs.”
Branson: British Airways illegally accessed Virgin data to poach delayed passengers
“They had a unit that illegally accessed our computer information, and then they would ring up Virgin passengers pretending to be from Virgin, telling the passengers their flight was delayed, and then switching them to British Airways.”
Daunt: Barnes & Noble has no marketing department and spends zero dollars
“Well, we have the great benefit of not having a marketing department, so we have zero marketing dollars to spend, so that makes it an easy thing. So that's never happening.
Jeff Berman: None whatsoever.
James Daunt: None whatsoever. I mean, literally zero.”
Study of 30,000 careers shows youth success negatively correlates with adult success
“There was just a paper in science, you know, one of the probably two most prestigious scientific journals in the world. It aggregated about 30,000 careers of musicians, scientists, athletes, And what it found was basically the thesis of range that the indicato…”
Elite athletes spend less early time in deliberate practice than lower-level peers
“The data that actually track, yes, elite athletes spend more time in deliberate practice than lower level athletes, but the studies that track them over the course of their development show that early on they spent less time In deliberate practice in that acti…”
Webb: China is funding ten-year AI infrastructure to deploy across 1.4B citizens
“China is saying, we're not going to worry about innovation right now. We are going to build infrastructure. So in a, by the time this Show comes out. China probably will have announced its next five-year plan, and that next year five-year plan is funding a ten…”
Masad: Future developers will program entirely in natural language
“I think there are people that are going to be entirely programming in natural language.”
Masad: ChatGPT has triggered psychotic breaks by reinforcing delusions
“There's high-profile cases where people have psychotic breaks because they have, like, delusions of grandeur and things like that, and ChatGPT is, like, reinforcing that, and that's, like, really bad.”
Thompson: Anthropic recently paid out billions of dollars to authors
“Anthropic just had to pay out billions of dollars to authors.”
Brink: Younger generations want to be in the office more
“What we found, too, when you talk about generations is that it's actually the younger generations that want to be in the office even more. They see that they're learning much more when they're in the office. They see that they're creating that social capital t…”
Estée Lauder required Bobbi Brown to sign a 25-year non-compete
“They would like you to sign a 25 year non-compete.”
Levine: Every US sportsbook runs on legacy European software
“And every sports book that has launched in America is built on the back of software that was initially built for the UK and Europe.”
Levine: Underdog built the only US-tailored regulated sports betting tech stack
“So now, as we've built the technology that now is the only tech that has been purpose-built for the American market that is licensed and regulated and has been licensed by this test lab that license every single slice of it that regulators then rely on.”
Welch: 65% of Gen Z value self-care versus 0% of hiring managers
“Eudaimonia is the number one value for 65% of Gen Z, and in 1500 hiring managers over the age of 40 in corporate positions, exactly zero percent said they wanted eudaimonia as a top value.”
Welch's survey finds only 2% of Gen Z hold employer-desired values
“I did a survey of 1500 hiring managers, and I asked, what values do you wanna, what values do you hire for among Gen Z? And I'm gonna tell you, only two percent had the values they wanted.”
Cadre secured its first real estate asset through partner Jared Kushner.
“The first actual asset was an asset that I was able to secure vis-a-vis a relationship with Jared Kushner. Who was one of my earliest partners as well.”
Wang: Berkeley study found toxic metalloids in 14 major tampon brands
“A big study came out from the University of Berkeley over the summer. I don't know if you saw it, but 14 major tampon brands, including organic tampons, tested positive for toxic metalloids like lead and mercury and arsenic.”
Shan-Lyn Ma: Hallmark Channel rejected Zola ads featuring same-sex couples
“There was one instance where the Hallmark Channel refused to run our ads that showed same-sex couples.”
Weaver: Viral social media narratives falsely claimed Jack Daniel stole his recipe
“The internet decided almost instantaneously, with the headline in the photo, that Jack Daniel was a slave owner, he hid the recipe, he stole the recipe, he hid the slave. That was not a part of the story. It was not even insinuated, but that is the story that …”
Russell: Luminar targets up to $60B in booked business by 2030
“Our target is to be as much as a sixty billion by the end of the decade.”
Dyson: Dyson Institute has higher first-class honors rate than any UK university
“And by the way, we have a higher percentage of first-class honors than any other British university.”
Saujani: Working mothers earn 58 cents for every dollar made by fathers
“We have a motherhood penalty, and what I mean by that is moms make 58 cents and every dollar made by fathers.”
Nocera: School closings and pandemic lockdowns exacerbated income inequality
“And then I had a particular obsession with school closings and lockdowns that they exacerbated income inequality, but nobody was talking about that.”
Suleyman: Inflection AI has ensured users cannot prompt hack Pi
“We've really tried hard to make safety our number one priority, and part of the way that we do that is by ensuring that you can't actually prompt hack Pi.”
Khan: NYPD testified it lacks accuracy data for its facial recognition systems
“When we asked the NYPD for its own data on the bias and the accuracy of this technology, when we wanted to look underneath the algorithmic hood at how this system is operating, they told us under oath they don't have any data on how accurate this technology is…”
Suleyman: Inflection Will Deploy the World's Largest Supercluster by Autumn 2023
“And we also just announced our new funding round where we've been lucky enough to be able to raise 1.3 billion dollars. And we'll be using that to build the largest super cluster in the world, which we'll have up and running by the autumn of this year.”
Suleyman: Google Bard Uses LaMDA's Search-Grounded Model Architecture
“And actually that's what you now see in Bard, you know, Google's new AI. It's pretty much exactly the same model.”
Krawcheck: Women hold 30% of white male wealth; Black women hold 1%
“Women have 30 cents of wealth to every dollar a white man has. Black women have a penny.”
Dr. Walker: Sleep-deprived employees are more likely to act unethically
“One of the more surprising facts is that the less and less sleep that an employee has had, the more and more likely they are to lie become unethical. So for example, falsify data in a spreadsheet.”
Polman: Unilever's purpose-driven brands grew faster and were more profitable
“But we saw that these brands that actually were more purpose-driven were actually growing faster and more profitable as well.”
Obama: Economic inequality continued to grow throughout his presidency
“You saw some trends that unfortunately continued even through my presidency of growing inequality.”
Citigroup fired Krawcheck for advocating client reimbursement during the financial crisis
“Happily, the reason that I was fired from Citi during the financial crisis, and now a decade plus ago, was because I had advocated for returning client money.”
Anagnost: Autodesk coined the phrase 'generative design' a decade ago
“We actually coined the phrase generative design 10 years ago.”
Freston: MTV Brought Hip-Hop to American Living Rooms Before BET or Radio
“We kind of made up for that, and we were the first people to kind of give hip-hop put it in the living rooms of America. I mean, BET or in radio wasn't even playing hip-hop, but”
Cole: The Party Animals have more TikTok followers than any MLB team
“So like the party animals, which people don't realize they have more followers than every major league baseball team on TikTok.”
Cole: Bananas cap tickets at $60 with no fees or taxes
“The average ticket price in the secondary market is over 200 dollars. For us, it's 40, 50, and 60 dollars with no ticket fees, no convenience fees, we pay your taxes.”
Scaringe: Rivian completed a $5.8B software licensing deal with Volkswagen
“We did a 5.8 billion dollar software licensing deal with the second largest car company in the world with Volkswagen Group.”
Scaringe: Rivian R1S outsells Tesla Model X as top premium electric SUV
“If you take in the premium segment, in the flagship space, we have an SUV, our R one S and it's by a pretty significant degree. It's this best selling premium electric SUV in the country. And so you know, it's significantly outsold the Model X. It outsells eve…”
Epstein: Founders trained in the scientific method pivot more and succeed more
“And some of them were randomized to get trained in, in a scientific method version of this, where they make a hypothesis about what do they think is their value add. And then they have to commit to a way to go test it. And some decision rule, you know, ah, the…”
The US is the only nation where most say others lack morals
“I just saw there was a Pew survey out that showed America is now the only country where a majority of adults, it was a small majority, but a majority, said that other people have bad morals.”
Poppi Cannot Be Sold at Lakers Stadium Due to Concession Contracts
“We are the official soda of the LA Lakers. We can't be sold there at the stadium because of existing contracts.”
Brooks: Meaninglessness Is the Top Predictor of Depression in Young Adults
“As a matter of fact, the best predictor of depression, anxiety, For young adults is the answer yes to the question. Does your life feel meaningless? That's the best predictor.”
Robins: Prediction markets' combined volume trails tier-two betting rivals
“If you look at it, it's not like, even by volume, the prediction markets, or any more market share, if you put everything together any more share, I should say, than you know, some of the other competitors that we have that are not number one and number two in…”