The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 68 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Russell: Tesla's vision system fails to stop for child crash dummies
“Like, literally, if you put, like, a, you know, a crash dummy right in front of the car like a child pedestrian crash dummy, like, it doesn't come to a safe stop, like, at a reasonable speed.”
Camera-only driver assistance systems fail basic crash dummy stopping tests
“Reality is it is great to see some improvements for some basic level of assisted driving capabilities, but it doesn't solve some of the fundamentals of what you need to do to prevent accidents. Like literally, if you put a crash dummy right in front of the car…”
Levine: Every US sportsbook runs on legacy European software
“And every sports book that has launched in America is built on the back of software that was initially built for the UK and Europe.”
Russell: Luminar targets up to $60B in booked business by 2030
“Our target is to be as much as a sixty billion by the end of the decade.”
Dyson: Dyson Institute has higher first-class honors rate than any UK university
“And by the way, we have a higher percentage of first-class honors than any other British university.”
Suleyman: Inflection AI has ensured users cannot prompt hack Pi
“We've really tried hard to make safety our number one priority, and part of the way that we do that is by ensuring that you can't actually prompt hack Pi.”
Suleyman: Inflection Will Deploy the World's Largest Supercluster by Autumn 2023
“And we also just announced our new funding round where we've been lucky enough to be able to raise 1.3 billion dollars. And we'll be using that to build the largest super cluster in the world, which we'll have up and running by the autumn of this year.”
Anagnost: Autodesk coined the phrase 'generative design' a decade ago
“We actually coined the phrase generative design 10 years ago.”
Freston: MTV Brought Hip-Hop to American Living Rooms Before BET or Radio
“We kind of made up for that, and we were the first people to kind of give hip-hop put it in the living rooms of America. I mean, BET or in radio wasn't even playing hip-hop, but”
Brooks: Meaninglessness Is the Top Predictor of Depression in Young Adults
“As a matter of fact, the best predictor of depression, anxiety, For young adults is the answer yes to the question. Does your life feel meaningless? That's the best predictor.”
Robins: Prediction markets' combined volume trails tier-two betting rivals
“If you look at it, it's not like, even by volume, the prediction markets, or any more market share, if you put everything together any more share, I should say, than you know, some of the other competitors that we have that are not number one and number two in…”
Scott Galloway: Baby Bells eclipsed AT&T's value within a decade of breakup
“When we broke up the AT&T into the Baby Bells, all seven of those companies were more valuable than the original AT&T on their own within about a decade, and things like Fiber and Analytics and Cell and Broadband were all lying fallow in Bell Labs because AT&T…”
Wang: Automotive outsourcing displaced 10% to 15% of American jobs
“Was the outsourcing of American automotive manufacturing. So you know, We used to have all this domestic automotive manufacturing, then it sort of slowly got outsourced to outside the United States. Over a few decade time period, it resulted in displacement of…”
Cessario: Liquid Death reached #1 flavored sparkling brand in convenience store channel
“And then by the end of last year, so that was like not even, maybe a year and a half of the, of that product being on the market, we were the number one flavored sparkling brand in total dollars in the entire convenience store channel.”
Raskin: Democrats overestimate Republican anti-Muslim sentiment by 70 points
“If you ask Democrats what percentage of Republicans think all Muslims are bad, Democrats will estimate it's like 85%, but if you actually ask Republicans, it's less than 15%,”
Gelsinger claims BCG consultants saw 10x productivity improvements using AI for proposals
“Like Boston Consulting Group, one of our partners that we've worked with, you know, they were demonstrating 10 X productivity improvements on the part of their consultants being able to develop proposals for their clients.”
Nocera: Private equity took over nursing homes while major hospitals became for-profit
“And so nursing homes have basically been taken over by private equity and hospitals have become for profit the big ones anyway.”
Suleyman: Frontier AI Training Compute Grew 10 Billion Times in a Decade
“Over the last 10 years, the amount of compute used to train the best and the biggest models in the world has tenxed. 10 orders of magnitude in 10 years.”
James: US clothing donations shut down 70% of African apparel workshops
“70% of small workshops and apparel factories around the continent of Africa actually closed down. Due in large part to these American donations.”
Hoffman: Larger AI Models Are Harder to Jailbreak and Deceive
“The larger models are much more easily trainable to say when someone asks for, I'd like to break into the following computer, right? Help me do it. It goes, well, I'm sorry, I can't do that. Today's models, you go, well, my grandmother used to put me to sleep …”
Obama: Federal procurement rules forced waterfall development instead of iterative scaling
“Because of the procurement rules, the way we bought software was this massive stack of specs and working with these huge contractors as opposed to an iterative process of buying software and problem solving and starting small and scaling up.”
Zuckerberg: Facebook froze new feature development for two years for mobile
“So we made what was a pretty hard decision at the time, which was basically no new features for two years, which is kind of a crazy thing.”
Krishna: Hourly GPU cloud pricing doubled in the last six months
“I'll point out to you underlying GPU pricing, which is what all of these things run on, has doubled in the last six months on a per hour basis.”
Deeter: ServiceTitan is valued at $10B with massive remaining growth upside
“You know, they're at ten billion already and sky's the limit in terms of where that can go.”
Cadre created an early version of the first real estate secondary market.
“What we did was we created an early version of the first ever secondary market for real estate.”
Webb: Weight loss drugs are a product of AI and biotechnology
“All of these weight loss drugs, like, right? That is also a product of AI and biotechnology.”
Wang: Cosmopolitan had an editorial policy against covering periods in 2015
“Even Cosmo magazine in 2015 had an editorial policy to not write about periods.”
Wang: The Flex Company makes the best-selling US menstrual cup
“We make the best selling menstrual cup in the U S now with a patented design that removes like a tampon.”
Russell: Mercedes is first to achieve Level 3 autonomy certification
“Mercedes taking leadership from an autonomous driving standpoint. They're the first ahead of anyone to be able to get, for example, like the level three certification you know, for autonomous driving.”
Russell: LiDAR performs identically in pitch darkness and direct sunlight
“The whole point of the LiDAR, in addition to being able to get the three-D depth, is that it sees the exact same, whether it's pitch black outside, or whether there's bright sunlight shining into the sensor. You know, they get the same output, because it's act…”
Raskin: Whales have transmitted vocal culture for 34 million years
“It turns out whales have been passing down culture for like Thirty-four million years, vocally. Human beings have been doing it for what, like a 100,300 thousand? So this is a culture that has lasted longer, 85 times longer than our entire species.”
Berman: LinkedIn has many $150,000 entry-level prompt engineering job postings
“You've got entry level, 150,000 dollar jobs for prompt engineers. You know, littering the LinkedIn landscape.”
Gavet: Ozon's $100M raise was Europe's largest round at the time
“When we closed, you mentioned the hundred million dollar round. At the time, and it's gonna sound silly, but at the time, that was the largest fundraising round ever done in Europe”
Wallach: People refuse to plan for the future when confronting their death
“When we did the kind of the, we did the bench research on this, When people are forced to think about the world after they are no longer in it, they lock up, they refuse to do it, they refuse to future.”
Gelsinger: Technology drives 20% of US GDP and 50% of its growth
“Today, you know, on the order of 20% of the entire GDP of the nation, right, and almost 50% of the growth in the GDP is a direct result of technology.”
Samuel: Parents with young kids are most eager to return to offices
“It actually turned out that some of the people who are most eager to return to the office are people with young kids, because it's super annoying to try and get your work done when the kids are pestering you.”
Maher: African emerging markets are transitioning to middle-income status fastest globally
“The velocity of Emerging markets in Africa transitioning into middle income status is higher than any other region on the planet”
Hoffman: Flickr introduced foundational web conventions like tagging and following
“They introduced conventions like tagging and following that are now deeply woven into the fabric of our online relationships.”
Saujani: Female and minority computer science majors have a 75% completion rate
“In college, if I declare poli-sci as a major when I start my freshman year, there's a 99% chance that I am going to complete college majoring in political science. But if I declare computer science as a major, I'm a woman, a person of color, there's only a 75%…”
Hoffman: 70% of Apple employees lacked senior leadership representation before Ahrendts
“As we noted earlier, retail actually made up 70% of Apple's a 100,000 employees, but not on the senior leadership team, the level at which a company's driving mission gets set.”
Fisher: 83% of US clothing is discarded or incinerated within a year
“In this country, 83% of the clothes that are produced are discarded or incinerated within one year.”
Harrison: Charity Water Expects 35% Growth and Over $70M Revenue
“Last year we grew 37%. This year we're gonna grow another 35%. We think we're gonna do over seventy million dollars this year. Help almost one and a half million people get clean water.”
Branson: Virgin Cola outsold Coke and Pepsi for 18 months
“And for about 18 months, we were out selling them.”
Frankfort: Japanese consumers spent six times more on bags than Americans
“On bags, in Japan, they spent At the time, six times as much as the average American spent.”
Brink: 61% of workers make cross-demographic friends at the office
“One of our workplace surveys that came out Right one or two years into the pandemic, we were talking about making friends outside of your generation and connecting with people who are outside of your social group or of different race or age, and found that 61%…”
Ju Rhyu: Hero Cosmetics Launched Physical Retail Exclusively with Target
“We were exclusive at Target, grew very deeply with them.”
Shan-Lyn Ma: The two years after 2020 were biggest for weddings
“The following two years were the biggest years ever for weddings where a lot of people who, Might have pushed their wedding back or pulled their wedding forward, decided we are going to celebrate being back in person again, again, and we're going to have a rea…”
Cessario: US alcohol laws restrict corporate ownership of distributors to 20%
“And because of the alcohol laws in the U.S., Big alcohol companies are only allowed to own 20% of their distribution network. So Anheuser-Busch, for example, they've got 404 hundred plus distributors across the United States. Anheuser-Busch corporate can only …”