The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,186 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 26 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Russell: Tesla's vision system fails to stop for child crash dummies
“Like, literally, if you put, like, a, you know, a crash dummy right in front of the car like a child pedestrian crash dummy, like, it doesn't come to a safe stop, like, at a reasonable speed.”
Nocera: Comparing lockdown and non-lockdown country data shows no difference
“They don't work. If you look at countries that locked down versus countries that didn't lock down, you don't, you can't tell which is which. You absolutely can't.”
Wilson: Caregiver earnings rates disputed by FTC were based on real data
“There was another piece where they challenged that the rate that caregivers were making were, maybe not fully an accurate depiction of that rate. We don't know how they could have claimed that because that was, actual real data that we would get off our transa…”
Krishna: Foundation AI models will become commodities within one to three years
“I think foundation models are going to become commodities. By the way, not that far out. Is it a year? Is it two years? Is it three years? Commodities doesn't mean that they don't have value. Gold is a commodity. So is iron. So commodities means that there is …”
Krishna: AI token pricing will rise significantly to justify capital investments
“Second, I think that right now the token price on all of these is going to go way up. It just has to justify the capital investments.”
Berman: Silicon Valley Investors Actively Seek Revenge as a Founder Motivator
“One of the handful of things that investors are looking for as a motivator is revenge. It's a big one. People have got really something to prove and want to just go assassinate the competition.”
Webb: China will technologically leapfrog the US within ten years
“So what's gonna wind up happening is, 10 years from now, China's gonna leapfrog us. I'm sorry, but like, anybody can, like, I'm happy to argue with anybody all day long about this, but we are missing the structural components for success.”
Hoffman: An AI GP as good as an average doctor is months away
“We could construct in a small number of months a medical assistant that is as capable as kind of call it You know an average GP or better that could run for, you know, small number of dollars per hour.”
Bret Taylor argues AI hallucinations will help solve digital disinformation
“And if you want a contrarian take on this, I think it will help with the disinformation problem a bit. People don't assume everything coming out of these agents is a hundred percent accurate and they like verify it. And my hope is the combination of these AI t…”
Wang: Humans will always hold a reasoning advantage in long-duration thought
“The areas where humans will always have a meaningful sort of reasoning or intelligence advantage relative to models is long form thought long duration thought, thinking over long time horizons.”
Russell: Luminar can be a trillion-dollar company integrated into every car
“It's this kind of thing where, you know, you have this outcome of where it's, like, very, very clear in your head, like, how we're gonna execute on these programs, how, you know, we'll see Luminar in every car, how, you know, it can be a trillion dollar compan…”
Raskin: ESP will have capability to contact non-human cultures within six years
“In the next six years we will make contact or have the technical capability of making contact with these thirty four million year old cultures.”
Roy-Chowdhury predicts AI will ultimately be a net job creator
“First of all, I do think that AI will be a net job creator.”
Andrew Chen: Startups failing to reach a $1B valuation have failed
“I have a, an advisor, Andrew Chen. He's like, if you're not a billion dollar company, you failed.”
Shein copied Cassey Ho's skort twice despite a conversation with its president
“And so what's been so crazy is that they not only copied that skirt once, they did it twice after we had a conversation about it. I talked to the president of US Sheehan, like it was a whole thing.”
Farquhar: Daily office attendance does not correlate with employee connection
“And what we did is we correlated those answers with how frequently people come to an office and how frequently they do what we call intentional togetherness gathering. And we found that people just turning up to the office every day was not correlated.”
Camera-only driver assistance systems fail basic crash dummy stopping tests
“Reality is it is great to see some improvements for some basic level of assisted driving capabilities, but it doesn't solve some of the fundamentals of what you need to do to prevent accidents. Like literally, if you put a crash dummy right in front of the car…”
Gelsinger says Intel will extend Moore's law until exhausting the periodic table
“We're not gonna let Moore's Law die until the periodic table is exhausted, and we have a lot of elements yet to go.”
Hoffman: GPT-4 already diagnoses better than majority of human GPs
“And for example, a researcher at Microsoft, again, Peter Lee, has written an excellent book about showing how GPT-IV can already do medical diagnoses better than, you know, the majority of human GPs.”
Lubetzky: Hamas Aims for Regional Caliphate Replacing Arab Governments
“The goal of Hamas is not to replace Israel with the Palestinian Authority. Their goal is an Islamic Caliphate all over the Middle East to replace Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Jordan and all other Arab countries with the most repressive of Islamic regimes.”
Lubetzky: Palestinian Staff Report Hamas Is Blocking Gaza Evacuation Routes
“We have staff in Gaza that are trying to escape Gaza, and we have ways to get them out, but Hamas has blocked all exits. They've bombed roads, they've blocked roads. This is from our Palestinian staff in Gaza that are telling us they're not able to get out bec…”
Cohen: Hamas prevented Palestinian evacuations by confiscating IDs and car keys
“And Hamas won't let Palestinians get out of there. They took their IDs, and they took their car keys, and they won't let them flee the area.”
Hoffman: Within 10 years society will want exclusively autonomous vehicles
“Like, I actually think that within 10 years, we will strongly want a world in which it's only autonomous vehicles on the road and not human beings.”
Branson: British Airways illegally accessed Virgin data to poach delayed passengers
“They had a unit that illegally accessed our computer information, and then they would ring up Virgin passengers pretending to be from Virgin, telling the passengers their flight was delayed, and then switching them to British Airways.”
Obama: Republican filibuster obstruction in 2009 was unprecedented in US history
“At the time, there was no precedent for the kind of obstruction that we had seen from the Republican Party. There was no precedent for the use of the filibuster to literally block everything.”
Daunt: Barnes & Noble has no marketing department and spends zero dollars
“Well, we have the great benefit of not having a marketing department, so we have zero marketing dollars to spend, so that makes it an easy thing. So that's never happening.
Jeff Berman: None whatsoever.
James Daunt: None whatsoever. I mean, literally zero.”
Daunt: AI will displace study guides but cannot write great literature
“Is AI gonna write, write the next great books?
I very, very much doubt it, but it will take categories of books out quite clearly.
Such as?
Home study guides, you know, you, that will, that's an easy thing.”
Raman: Software engineering and customer service jobs face AI displacement
“Some jobs that are going to get displaced, and they already are, software engineering, customer service.”
Hoffman: Consumers will rely on an AI agent as their front door
“There's a platform sense in which I think there will be, will have, people will have an agent, maybe a couple, but certainly an agent that's kind of their general front door.”
Hoffman: Consumer AI will be massive despite enterprise-heavy consensus
“With AI, people haven't realized the whole consumer revolution. That's going to come with AI. And I agree with you. And as we know, as we see in Silicon Valley, everyone's talking, well, well, okay, enterprise is where the money is. That was the same thing bac…”
Pincus: The metaverse will be huge, but not inside VR goggles
“I think that the metaverse is starting to happen and I think it's going to happen and it's going to be As big as Zuck thought, and it's just not going to happen inside of an immersive game goggle that is painful and hot to wear on your head, even if the form f…”
Wilson: Generative AI will eradicate Care.com's technical debt within one year
“There's the promise of that it'll eradicate this in short period and actually believe it will. I think we're going to work our way out of it over the next year.”
Wilson: Care.com agreed with FTC on difficult cancellations and began changes
“One of the three things that the FTC asserted was our site being a subscription or membership service was hard to cancel. Guess what? I agreed with them. And before they, that, that claim was even there, we already started to change it.”
Krishna: 30% of back-office headcount won't be needed within a few years
“It's not going to go down to zero. But I would not be surprised if about 30% of the total headcount in those areas is not needed within a few years.”
Krishna: Everyone in the tech industry is losing money on AI right now
“Tech may be the early, early beneficiary, but I will note everybody in tech right now is losing money in it.”
Krishna: Market will support only three or four foundation models globally
“So, and I don't think in a commodity world, there probably isn't space for a dozen foundation models. Is there space for three or four? Probably. But since there's a dozen being run after globally, it tells you that They're not all going to work out.”
Krishna: Anthropic's Mythos Found No New Vulnerabilities Beyond Existing Models
“Mythos didn't find anything that other models didn't and couldn't find.”
Krishna: Quantum simulation will scale to 24,000 atoms within two months
“We're pretty sure that in another month or two, we'll be at double that range, which means you can solve trypsin.”
Study of 30,000 careers shows youth success negatively correlates with adult success
“There was just a paper in science, you know, one of the probably two most prestigious scientific journals in the world. It aggregated about 30,000 careers of musicians, scientists, athletes, And what it found was basically the thesis of range that the indicato…”
Elite athletes spend less early time in deliberate practice than lower-level peers
“The data that actually track, yes, elite athletes spend more time in deliberate practice than lower level athletes, but the studies that track them over the course of their development show that early on they spent less time In deliberate practice in that acti…”
Deeter: Foundation models will become tech's new hyperscalers
“Our belief is that the foundation models are going to be the new hyperscalers.”
Deeter: Anthropic can capture the number one foundation model slot
“The better in Anthropic was that they would be one of those companies and that they had the chance to compete at the one slot, which we very much still think they do.”
Deeter predicts a one-person billion-dollar company will exist by 2027
“In my mind, I'm thinking a year and I'm holding off whether that means 13 months, whether it's a calendar year or through the end of January, but I think it's that soon.”
Webb: Generative AI and programmable biology enable non-experts to create bioweapons
“It also means absolutely terrifying lethal bioweapons that can be produced by people that maybe wouldn't have had the tools before.”
Webb: China is funding ten-year AI infrastructure to deploy across 1.4B citizens
“China is saying, we're not going to worry about innovation right now. We are going to build infrastructure. So in a, by the time this Show comes out. China probably will have announced its next five-year plan, and that next year five-year plan is funding a ten…”
Yuan: Could not find a single happy Skype or WebEx customer
“There were so many solutions out there. The market was extremely crowded. However, I did spend a lot of time on talking with those users. Do you like Skype? Do you like WebEx? I did not see a single happy customer who told me that Really like the existing solu…”
Masad: Future developers will program entirely in natural language
“I think there are people that are going to be entirely programming in natural language.”
Masad: Autonomous background agents will require new programming UIs beyond chat
“I don't think we've invented the UI for how to mix and match these LLMs and how to program them. So as much as I am a big believer in natural language-based programming, I think at some point as agents get better and they're like working most of the time in th…”