The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dohmke: No single AI model will ever dominate software development
“There is never going to be one single model that rules them all, but the world of software development is just way too broad for this.”
Dohmke: Seamless developer-to-agent transition is key to winning AI dev tools
“Enabling developers to move between those categories and being able to pick the agent That provides the best ROI or do it themselves. I think that's the key for winning in the next few years.”
Dohmke: AI coding agents require 90% benchmark accuracy for broad adoption
“90% is going to be the min bar for broad adoption and saying this is now established technology and we need to look for the next big thing.”
Dohmke: Primary developer skill will become task specification for AI agents
“And then the skill of the developer will be to know how to describe the task in such a way that the agent can do the job with almost no additional revisions needed.”
Dohmke: Simple software replaced by prompts will lose value
“Everything that I can easily replace with a single prompt is, is not going to have any value. It will have the value of that prompt and the inference and the tokens, but that's often a few dollars.”
Dohmke: OpenAI's Codex solved over 90% of GitHub interview coding exercises
“I think the model was able, when, with multiple attempts to solve more than 90% of these coding exercises, of these two and 30 coding exercises.”
Dohmke: Most developers have adopted AI tools, unlike other knowledge workers
“Most developers have adopted some form of AI tooling into the workflow already, while other knowledge workers, other white collar workers are still early in that adoption journey.”
Dohmke: Copilot AI competitors run model inference on Azure AI Foundry
“Many of these AI code generation companies that compete with GitHub Copilot are running their inference on Azure AI Foundry.”
Dohmke: GitHub passed $2 billion in ARR in July 2024
“We announced last July so almost a year ago that GitHub had passed two billion in, in annual revenue run rate ARR.”
Dohmke: GitHub grew from $200M ARR in 2017 to $2B in 2024
“You can go back in time, 2017, a year before the deal, then GitHub leadership team had announced two hundred million. In AR. So those are not exactly snapping to the timing of the deal, but you get an idea between 2017 and 20 24 revenue when 10 X, right?”
Dohmke: Parallel local and cloud agent workflows will be software development's future
“And so this continuous spectrum of, I can assign tasks, test generation, bug fixes, you know, security vulnerabilities bootstrapping a new feature to the coding agent to, I can take that code base into my local IDE, or I can keep working just as I'm used to al…”
Dohmke: Visual Studio was a billion-dollar business in 2018
“Back, back in 2018 being Visual Studio, you know, in itself the IDE, you know, the old school IDE in itself, a billion dollar business”
Dohmke: GitHub revenue is included in Microsoft's Azure quarterly KPI
“From a business perspective, that meant the GitHub revenue became part of the Azure KPI that is reported, you know, in, in earnings calls every quarter from Microsoft.”
Dohmke: Autocompletion remains GitHub Copilot's most used feature
“And so Copilot does that autocompletion that continues to be the most used features because it is always there.”
Dohmke: Microsoft has about 70,000 employees in R&D
“I think Microsoft all up has about 70,000 people in research and development. Not all of them are engineers, there's some product managers and designers, but the majority are writing code.”