why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Scott Belsky: Contextual UI prompts matter as much as underlying AI models
“One of the most important insights was, and maybe as important as building a great family of models. And I can talk more about Firefly and the underlying models and how we trained it and how we didn't train it and everything else, but was simply the insight of…”
Insight
Belsky: AI detection algorithms will never catch media manipulators
“We're never going to catch the bad actors because anyone can, you know, make anything and it's a cat and mouse game to have algorithms that tell whether something was edited or not.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Adobe data shows AI is increasing creative hiring, not reducing it
“So in our data, we're still seeing this revolution drive hiring more as opposed to reducing the hiring.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott Belsky predicts local LLMs on personal devices will suffice for most
“I think that verticals will be important. I think the LMs will be abundant. And I actually think at some point, maybe relatively soon, we'll realize that some LMs, even locally running LMs on our machines are enough for a lot of the actions that we want to do …”
Disclosure
Adobe trained its Firefly AI models exclusively on licensed material
“We wanted to train off of licensed material that we had a license to train off of.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Repetitive design work like banner ad formatting is already replaced by AI
“The job of someone turning squares into rectangles all day for banner ads, that job's been replaced by AI.”
Insight
Scott Belsky: Hourly business models are broken in the age of AI
“And so I'm starting to wonder if value-based pricing models are really going to replace time-based pricing models and a lot of the functions of like, very sophisticated work. And also, what are the tools that allow us to know how to price our work, right? But …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott Belsky admits a significant portion of daily Photoshop downloaders get lost
“For all the people that download any of these desktop products like Photoshop every day, the number of people that get lost or can't feel successful in the product is really Significant.”
Assertion Partly supported
Belsky: CAI has 2,000 partners, including Nikon, Canon, Sony, and Leica
“We now have 2000 partners, Nikon, Canon, Sony, and Leica have all come out with cameras. They now add counter-credentials to assets by default taking in their camera so that when they come into Photoshop or Lightroom or third-party products of other companies,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: Brands will flood the market with content, raising the engagement bar
“We're entering a world where, first of all, every brand's gonna absolutely flood the zone with content. That's gonna make the bar go up for the digital experiences that really engage us.”
Disclosure
Scott Belsky: All of Adobe's Firefly generative AI models are homegrown
“So all of our generative AI models for Firefly are homegrown.”
Assertion Partly supported
Belsky: Adobe automatically adds Content Credentials to AI-generated assets
“Whenever you use AI in any of our products, we automatically add credentials to the asset. That says what tool was used and what model you used.”