why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Superintelligence will emerge from multiple specialized labs, not one company
“I do think there'll be a general super intelligence, but I think that it won't be one lab that has built it, but it'll be kind of the plurality, like the collection of all intelligences will be a general super intelligence.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: AI models will interact with enterprise software primarily via APIs
“And so the way these language models are going to interact with any piece of software, not just Software engineering software, like Salesforce and other CRMs and creative tools and so forth. The majority of those interactions are going to be through function c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Advanced AI without comprehension are 'L9 engineers with amnesia'
“What we're going to get to if we don't solve the comprehension piece is basically L-nine engineers with amnesia.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Principal-level AI engineers are a couple of years away
“And that the combination of this you know, L-Nine with Amnesia and the L-Nine's context core will together, you know, that will become the principal level engineer, the AI engineer. And so I actually think that that's not too far away. That's I would say in, y…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Reflection AI will ship research requiring 100k GPU equivalence in 2025
“Later this year we'll be shipping things that I don't think anyone ever thought a startup could do. Like, I think that we're going to be shipping some things on the research side that I think everyone thinks you need to be a giant lab with a 100,000 GPUs to do…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Organizational superintelligence will probably be an all-encompassing oracle
“We realized that probably the form factor of an organizational super intelligence, like the thing that's really gonna help organizations get a lot of stuff done, is probably gonna be something like an oracle. Like an oracle that understands the entire organiza…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Self-improving code AI will mainly make algorithms more efficient
“I think what, I think coding intelligence that builds better coding intelligence will Make algorithms more efficient, basically.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Laskin: Other AI companies will converge on multi-agent retrieval architectures
“I'm sure that other companies will converge on it as well.”