The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marcus: Deep learning models are giant correlation machines without causal understanding
“These systems are just giant correlation machines. They have no understanding of causation.”
Marcus: Teslas crashed into multiple emergency vehicles due to vision flaws
“It turns out that Teslas have a problem with stopped vehicles, mostly emergency vehicles, on the side of the road. So they have run into, in the last year, three fire trucks, a tow truck a police car, and so forth.”
Marcus predicts AI developers will increasingly adopt hybrid models in secret
“I suspect that what will actually happen is that people will start to incorporate hybrid models and not call them that.”
Marcus: AI progress will be gradual, not a sudden explosion
“I don't think there's going to be like one special day with this big explosion. They're going to get better and better. It's going to take a while.”
Marcus predicts deeply neurally inspired AI models are 50 years away
“50 years from now, we will know how to build really deeply neurally inspired models, but right now we have to settle for cognitive science, for psychology, linguistics, fields like that, where we can actually get some insight now before we unravel the brain.”
Marcus: Autonomous driverless cars can drive in Palo Alto but not Manhattan
“In fact, they can drive in Palo Alto, but they can't drive in Manhattan.”
Marcus: AI has made little progress toward strategic general game players
“There's still been very little progress in building a general game player that can play games that require strategy or insight, complex three-dimensional graphics.”
Marcus: AI is not close to achieving strong, human-level intelligence
“But we're not there yet. We're not even close.”
Google's Peter Norvig estimated strong AI is worth up to $2T annually
“I asked Peter Norvik, who at the time was director of research at Google I said, you know, how much money would it really be worth if you could have strong AI? And he wrote back about five minutes later, I'm suddenly a much louder, I think. And estimated somet…”
Gary Marcus: No great machine learning technique exists for natural language
“And so, as a result, there is no great machine learning technique in natural language.”
Marcus: Facebook M relies mostly on human operators rather than AI
“Facebook's new M service, which they have not rolled out at scale has humans on the back end. There's a little bit of AI in there, but it's mostly, ah, human beings, which is why they haven't rolled it out for a billion customers. They don't have enough human …”