The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: AI software industry could hit $100 billion ARR this year
“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”
Patel: New AI chip startups like Etched have under 1% success chance
“I don't know what a venture capitalist views as like likely chances of succeeding, but I think all of them are less than one percent.”
Patel: Without AI leadership, China will overtake the US as hegemon
“But without AI, China definitely will rise to be the global hegemony. They're just gonna outrun America.”
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”
Patel: China will narrow its lithography gap to five years shortly
“Their lithography is like 10 years behind and I think it'll be five years behind in a couple of years, right?”
Patel: Data center power consumption will grow from 2% to 10% of US grid
“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”
Patel: Data centers will use under 1% of US water by 2030
“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Patel: AI coding UX will enable voice interaction within six months
“Give it six months, the models will be good enough that the UX can be like, talking to it.”
Patel: Most AI chips will be consumed via open-source engines, not direct programming
“I think most AI chips will not be consumed by people programming anything for it. They will download an open source inference engine, they will download an open source model, and then they will put it on the, and it's really simple to download VLM and, like, m…”
Patel: Hyperscaler capex will reach roughly $500 billion this year
“Hyperscalers capex is going to be like five hundred billion dollars this year or something like this.”
Patel: Independent power producers will profit from pairing power assets with data centers
“I think IPPs will do well. I think IPPs can secure contracts at premiums to what they've previously been able to for new power plants that are either dedicated or grid connected, but come with a pairing Of a grid load, right?”