The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nguyen: Energy bounds put human-level AI compute 50 years away
“And if you compute the equivalent energy required per neuron, and extrapolating that, it'll take about 50 years to get the equivalent human brain.”
Nguyen: Cost parity for human-brain level AI will arrive in 16 years
“There's another metric you look at in terms of traverse edges per second. And when you look at that, and you say, well, when would it take for it to become human in terms of cost? That's in about 16 years.”
Nguyen: Human-AI augmentation is humanity's best survival path against superintelligence
“So, my idea is, what if we could augment ourselves with this AI stuff we're building? That's probably the way out. That's probably the way we get away with this.”
Nguyen: Brain-machine interfaces will create hyper-evolved humans within 50 years
“So, if we implement this, and we implement brain-machine interfaces, within the next 50 years, we can become that hyper-evolved being, right?”
Nguyen: Parameter servers are the most efficient distributed deep learning architecture
“So, it turns out the fourth one is the most efficient one because it doesn't have to communicate the model back and forth anymore.”
Nguyen: In 2016, Google Brain is at the intelligence of a cockroach
“If you look at the Google brain, it's at the level of a, about a cockroach. Ok? And it's got about a million neurons.”