The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,106 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 36 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Levie: A single coding agent task can consume $1,000 in compute
“One, you know, coding agent could be consuming, you know, a thousand dollars of compute on a single task. So clearly like you can't lump that all into a 20 dollar per user per month fee.”
Levie: AI compute cost reductions will take 5 to 10 years
“The data center providers, the labs, et cetera, have pricing power. They don't need to lower their prices on anything. So you're not seeing the typical things that drive down the cost of compute. I'm highly optimistic that that happens over the next five to 10…”
Levie: A $5B startup will be built around AI compute ERP
“You're going to need, you know, new, new pieces of software. Probably there's probably a, you know, a five billion dollar startup waiting to happen just in like ERP for your AI compute.”
Levie: Average enterprise will use half a dozen AI models
“I think what's going to happen is you're going to have a mosaic of models in the enterprise. I think the average enterprise will certainly be using, you know, half a dozen models in their organization.”
Levie: Headless AI queries will be 100x larger than interface work
“So I think it's just going to be this sort of dual, dual model with the one nuance being probably by like you know, database queries, headless will just be a hundred times larger than the interface driven, you know, way of doing work.”
Levie: Enterprise software will combine seat and consumption models within three years
“So I think any enterprise software company in three years from now, that sort of, that, that gets through this AI transformation period, It will have a seat business model, assuming it has an end user component, and it'll have a consumption business model.”
Levie: AI agents will drive hiring as executives capture new value
“You will actually see, interestingly, if you're like an executive and you start to do this, you'll see lots of areas actually where you should hire more people because you're like, oh my God, this thing is spitting out, you know, incredible goldmine of value, …”
Dubois: AI frontier labs have successfully bypassed internet data walls
“There were a lot of conversation about hitting data walls, and it seems like we did not quite hit it. So the larger the model is, the more data it needs to ingest to be trained. And it seems like different companies kind of found different ways to overcome the…”
Dubois: Simulations will never fully eliminate the need for real-world AI training
“The problem is simulations are always going to be really hard and are not going to be truthful. So I think there will always need to be a certain, a little bit of training that will need to happen in the real world to make sure that the model realizes kind of …”
Dubois: Model capacity does not limit AI performance in legal or medical fields
“But there's nothing, I would say, in the capacity of the model That is constraining the model to be as good at legal and like medical and like other domains.”
Dubois: AI's coding discontinuity will permeate other verticals within two years
“Now the feeling of discontinuity will happen. It did happen three months ago with coding or four months ago with coding, and I think that will happen now in every other domains. Like most people are not feeling the same way Like the, like kind of the capabilit…”
Dubois: General AI agent harnesses designed to endure will not work
“If you try to have, like, a general harness to, that will, like, sustain over time I don't think that will work.”
Dubois: Horizontal AI model progress will not stop anytime soon
“Maybe one day when we stop making horizontal progress, which I don't think is anytime soon, maybe we will start focusing on that, but yeah, that's not what we're doing now.”
Burazin: Every AI agent will require at least one sandbox
“My argument is that every agent will need at least one sandbox, sometimes more”
Burazin: AI agent scale creates high probability of impending CPU shortages
“I don't know it goes to the extreme to where GPUs are because that is very, very, very extreme. But it is quite highly, high probability that there will be shortages of CPUs going forward.”
Kolter: Adversarial prompts optimized on open-source LLMs break commercial models
“Once we had done that, we found that when you had these weird terms that you sort of flipped around to optimize one, to optimize the response for one model, you could just take those same exact strings you would optimize, paste them into a commercial model, an…”
Zico Kolter: Current AI trajectory will yield capable systems without breakthroughs
“I think the current trajectory we're on is going to get us, even if there were no more breakthroughs, I think, you know, with the minor additions that we are doing right now, we will get to incredibly capable systems, even if we were to freeze things right now…”
Anthropic's unreleased Claude Mythos model shows outsized cybersecurity capabilities
“Mythos is a unreleased frontier model. It's a general purpose model that was trained not specifically for cybersecurity or specifically for coding or specifically for software, but we have discovered what we believe to be outsized capabilities specifically in …”
Rieseberg: AI models can execute week-long knowledge work tasks today
“The models we have today are actually quite capable. They're quite capable of running knowledge work of both of an extremely long time horizon, the kind of things that you give to someone and expect like a week later.”
Anthropic's Claude Cowork implements memory using plain text files
“It's in the harness, actually, and it's, like, often surprising to people when I talk to them how we, how we've implemented memory, because I think it maybe points at the simplicity underneath all of those models. Memory is just text files.”
Rieseberg: Software creation skills will shift from code to human language
“My prediction is going to be That we are going to have a lot more software. That software is probably going to be slightly more specialized. I don't think everyone is going to build their own software. I think people will still build things and, like, share th…”
Felix Rieseberg predicts AI progress is accelerating into larger capability gains
“We have reasons to believe the journey is accelerating so that the steps are going to get bigger and bigger.”
Fully automated AI self-improvement will eliminate human bottlenecks and trigger breakthroughs
“The moment that we had this full automation, I would say we can close the loop of self-improvement and then it becomes the Like, you know, the problems become like, you know, mostly providing compute for these models to actually do what they want to do. And as…”
AI model progress will alternate between pre-training and post-training breakthroughs
“We're going to be having a bit of a swing back and forth between pre-training and post-training.”
RAG will shift from universal use to handling long-tail distribution cases
“Maybe it changes in a way that, you know, like it doesn't need to trigger RAG for like everything, but I'm pretty sure that they're going to be some tail of the distribution that we're going to do RAG still for it.”
Real-world physical grounding will become the bottleneck for AI self-improvement
“As I said, you know, like soon, like the concept of data, like, you know, how to kind of like, you know, enable these models to kind of like, you know, be very good at like self-improvement becomes, how can I ground these models in, in real world? So this is d…”
Evans: OpenAI has 900M weekly active users, but only 5% pay
“You've got nine hundred million weekly active users, but most of them are not using it every day and can't think of anything to do with it. And only five percent of them are paying for it.”
Chase: Basically all AI agents will write code
“You know, if agents never write any code, then okay, maybe they're not useful, but I think it's trending where Basically all agents will write code, so that's a very interesting piece, I think.”
AxiomProver achieved a perfect score on the 2025 Putnam math exam
“Eight within the time limit, and then 12 out of 12.”
Today's AI can solve math problems that take human researchers months
“I think that we are at a threshold of mathematical renaissance, which is to realize that there are so many unsolved problems that will currently take, say, researchers months to crack, or even technical lemmas in those really longstanding conjectures that we b…”
Axiom's proof verifier is 100 times faster than open-source alternatives
“So a lot of the sort of like verify, verify proof is actually, you know, one of our prover tools that's about to be released, and that's actually a hundred times faster than The other counterparts that are the open source, like effort, cloud comparator.”
AxiomProver autonomously proves theorems publishable in major mathematical journals
“Currently the batch of papers, Axiom Prover has autonomously proven and mathematicians have written You can probably get into Journal of Number Theory, Journal of Algebra, like that level.”
AxiomProver could eventually solve the majority of human mathematical conjectures
“Everything that human mind Can conjecture, find interesting, find tasteful, could be solved by, hopefully, majority of them by accent prover.”
Zeghidour: Only 50 people worldwide can train competitive voice AI models
“Between 10 and 100? No, I would say. 50? I don't know. It's hard to say. But, yeah, I think it's very few and, really meaningful contributions that have pushed the field forward have been made by very small groups of people.”
Zeghidour: Voice will be the primary interface for next-gen AI hardware
“In my perception, all the new hardware companies have voice at the heart of the product. All the prototypes that we see, whether it's glasses or pendants or, you know, like the new stuff that Johnny Hive and Sam Altman are working on. Voice is at the heart of …”
Zeghidour: Kyutai's Moshi remains the only full-duplex conversational AI model
“Moshi, that is still to the day the only full duplex model.”
Zeghidour: Large multimodal models are too massive to run voice profitably
“And at the same time, these models are so large, they cannot run at scale because they will just make everyone lose money in the process.”
Zeghidour: Voice AI is very far from becoming commoditized
“Full duplex. We, you know, we did Moshi a year and a half ago. Still nobody has made it into a product. There are so many things that are just not existing today that I think the communitization, maybe it will happen someday, but we are very, very far from it,…”
Zeghidour: No AI team will solve noisy multi-speaker recognition within a year
“Well, I would say a frontier is I could like bet to every single speech team in the world that they don't solve it in the next year or so. It's a robot in the model in the factory, and there is a lot of noise from machines, and you have a lot of people talking…”
Zeghidour: AI voice design will eliminate the need for voice cloning
“Voice design is going to, you know, just remove this issue because then again, people typically are going to clone the voice of someone, but what they wanted is someone from a specific gender, specific demographics, age, accent, and so on. And so they could ju…”
Lacroix: Value-generating enterprise Generative AI deployment is about a year away
“Not years. I think years singular.”
Lacroix: Enterprise AI token demand will jump with autonomous agent deployment
“Demand and basically amount of tokens generated for the enterprise will completely jump once you are not bound anymore by humans asking questions or reading them.”
Patel: Groq chips cannot cost-effectively perform general-purpose large model inference
“In a general purpose workload, crock. Grok doesn't work, right? You know, it can't train, it can't, you know, it can't inference really, really large models cost efficiently, right? You can't serve many, many, many users, but what it can do is it can go block,…”
Patel: Groq missed revenue significantly before being acquired
“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”