The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 732 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 30 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dubois: General AI agent harnesses designed to endure will not work
“If you try to have, like, a general harness to, that will, like, sustain over time I don't think that will work.”
Dubois: Horizontal AI model progress will not stop anytime soon
“Maybe one day when we stop making horizontal progress, which I don't think is anytime soon, maybe we will start focusing on that, but yeah, that's not what we're doing now.”
Burazin: Every AI agent will require at least one sandbox
“My argument is that every agent will need at least one sandbox, sometimes more”
Burazin: AI agent scale creates high probability of impending CPU shortages
“I don't know it goes to the extreme to where GPUs are because that is very, very, very extreme. But it is quite highly, high probability that there will be shortages of CPUs going forward.”
Zico Kolter: Current AI trajectory will yield capable systems without breakthroughs
“I think the current trajectory we're on is going to get us, even if there were no more breakthroughs, I think, you know, with the minor additions that we are doing right now, we will get to incredibly capable systems, even if we were to freeze things right now…”
Rieseberg: Software creation skills will shift from code to human language
“My prediction is going to be That we are going to have a lot more software. That software is probably going to be slightly more specialized. I don't think everyone is going to build their own software. I think people will still build things and, like, share th…”
Felix Rieseberg predicts AI progress is accelerating into larger capability gains
“We have reasons to believe the journey is accelerating so that the steps are going to get bigger and bigger.”
Fully automated AI self-improvement will eliminate human bottlenecks and trigger breakthroughs
“The moment that we had this full automation, I would say we can close the loop of self-improvement and then it becomes the Like, you know, the problems become like, you know, mostly providing compute for these models to actually do what they want to do. And as…”
AI model progress will alternate between pre-training and post-training breakthroughs
“We're going to be having a bit of a swing back and forth between pre-training and post-training.”
RAG will shift from universal use to handling long-tail distribution cases
“Maybe it changes in a way that, you know, like it doesn't need to trigger RAG for like everything, but I'm pretty sure that they're going to be some tail of the distribution that we're going to do RAG still for it.”
Real-world physical grounding will become the bottleneck for AI self-improvement
“As I said, you know, like soon, like the concept of data, like, you know, how to kind of like, you know, enable these models to kind of like, you know, be very good at like self-improvement becomes, how can I ground these models in, in real world? So this is d…”
Chase: Basically all AI agents will write code
“You know, if agents never write any code, then okay, maybe they're not useful, but I think it's trending where Basically all agents will write code, so that's a very interesting piece, I think.”
Today's AI can solve math problems that take human researchers months
“I think that we are at a threshold of mathematical renaissance, which is to realize that there are so many unsolved problems that will currently take, say, researchers months to crack, or even technical lemmas in those really longstanding conjectures that we b…”
AxiomProver could eventually solve the majority of human mathematical conjectures
“Everything that human mind Can conjecture, find interesting, find tasteful, could be solved by, hopefully, majority of them by accent prover.”
Zeghidour: Voice will be the primary interface for next-gen AI hardware
“In my perception, all the new hardware companies have voice at the heart of the product. All the prototypes that we see, whether it's glasses or pendants or, you know, like the new stuff that Johnny Hive and Sam Altman are working on. Voice is at the heart of …”
Zeghidour: Voice AI is very far from becoming commoditized
“Full duplex. We, you know, we did Moshi a year and a half ago. Still nobody has made it into a product. There are so many things that are just not existing today that I think the communitization, maybe it will happen someday, but we are very, very far from it,…”
Zeghidour: No AI team will solve noisy multi-speaker recognition within a year
“Well, I would say a frontier is I could like bet to every single speech team in the world that they don't solve it in the next year or so. It's a robot in the model in the factory, and there is a lot of noise from machines, and you have a lot of people talking…”
Zeghidour: AI voice design will eliminate the need for voice cloning
“Voice design is going to, you know, just remove this issue because then again, people typically are going to clone the voice of someone, but what they wanted is someone from a specific gender, specific demographics, age, accent, and so on. And so they could ju…”
Lacroix: Value-generating enterprise Generative AI deployment is about a year away
“Not years. I think years singular.”
Lacroix: Enterprise AI token demand will jump with autonomous agent deployment
“Demand and basically amount of tokens generated for the enterprise will completely jump once you are not bound anymore by humans asking questions or reading them.”
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”
Patel: China will narrow its lithography gap to five years shortly
“Their lithography is like 10 years behind and I think it'll be five years behind in a couple of years, right?”
Patel: Data center power consumption will grow from 2% to 10% of US grid
“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”
Patel: Data centers will use under 1% of US water by 2030
“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Patel: AI coding UX will enable voice interaction within six months
“Give it six months, the models will be good enough that the UX can be like, talking to it.”
Future LLMs will prioritize architectural efficiency over larger model sizes
“I wouldn't expect bigger architectures. I would expect a more efficient architectures tweaks getting, The same modeling performance for less compute”
Process Reward Models will eventually become standard in LLM post-training
“I think it is promising and we will see it working at some point. I think it's just like right now it's still Tricky to make it work, but I am quite sure we'll see it as part of the standard repertoire at some point.”
Dettmers: Humans will work on problems only AI agents understand
“In the future it's realistic that we work on problems that we don't understand, that agents understand, but we need to keep up in some way”
Izmailov: Optimization pressure will cause AI to hide actual reasoning steps
“It seems like as soon as we start kind of applying some optimization pressure, the models will learn to hide what they're doing from the chain of thought.”
Izmailov: Future AI will produce outputs expert humans cannot reliably grade
“But in the future, we are imagining we will have models that are More capable than humans, and even expert humans will not be able to reliably grade very complicated answers from the model.”
Izmailov expects AI to outperform humans at proving technical mathematical lemmas
“In the mathematics I think we will see the models getting better on proving technical results, technical lemmas maybe including formalization and like things like lean the formal theory, improving language. I think the models, it's easy to imagine the models b…”
Bourgeau: End-to-end differentiable retrieval and search in training will take years
“I think deep down, I do believe that the long-term answer is to learn this differentiable end-to-end way, which means probably doing pre-training or whatever that looks like in the future, Learn to retrieve as part of the training and learn how to do search as…”
Bourgeau: Retrieval-augmented pre-training could become viable in a few years
“I just think it's not unreasonable to think in the next few years, something like that might actually become viable for a leading model like general.”
Kaiser: OpenAI aims to create an AI intern by late 2026
“I think that's what OpenAI says is they say, you know, we say we'd like an AI intern by the end of next year.”
Lambert: Big tech will realize 95-98% of LLM potential by 2030
“I think that how I describe it is that big tech has all collectively realized that these language models plus scaffolding is going to unlock absolutely incredible value. And I have very high probability, barring extreme geopolitical situations, that big tech E…”
Kant: AI is on track to rewrite $29T of global knowledge work
“I don't think anyone has any doubts anymore that we're now on track to reach human level capabilities and intelligence. And in that world, 29 trillion dollars of knowledge work rewrites itself, right?”
Kant: AI foundation model gross margins will settle near 40%
“I'm not yet convinced that gross margins in our industry will look like a SaaS company, like 80% plus. I think when we're talking about a commodity as intelligence, that we build value added services on top. Right. It's a foundation model company. On one hand,…”
Kant: RL2L will enable model reasoning much earlier in training
“We think we'll push models to a level of reasoning and thought That will happen far earlier in their training than it does today.”
Kant: AI training will evolve into continuous learning from real-world agent experiences
“And then the fourth stage of training over time increasingly will become learning, continuous learning from real world experiences of these agents. And so those are kind of the four stages that we think training will go to.”
Kant: External software and agent frameworks will collapse into base models
“But we have a phrase at poolside, which is over time, everything collapses into the models.”
Kant: AI models will equal top human knowledge workers within 36 months
“I think we have a hard time holding the point of view that models will reach the same level of intelligence and capabilities that the world's most capable people in every field have. And when you take a step back, and don't take the next 12 month view, but jus…”
Humanoid robotics will mirror self-driving car long-tail struggles
“My personal bet is I think it's gonna be, the humanoid space is gonna look much more like self-driving, where we have some very good isolated demos, but the long tail will kill you. And so we're gonna go through many false starts, and I think this is just the …”
Data center NIMBYism will feature prominently in 2026 political campaigns
“We predicted this kind of nimbyism, not, not in your backyard will kind of take precedence in in major political campaigns in 20, 26.”
Some countries will abandon AI sovereignty to declare AI neutrality
“Some countries will basically abandon their efforts to achieve AI sovereignty and declare AI neutrality.”
Schrittwieser: Current AI paradigm likely to achieve human-level performance in productivity tasks
“I think if you're thinking of, oh, we want some kind of system that can perform at roughly human level in basically all tasks that we care about. Productivity wise. Then I think, yeah, it's extremely likely that the current approach, pre-training RL, you know,…”
Tworek: Pre-training and RL are necessary for AGI, but not sufficient
“I generally think something that we are doing, like, pre-training today is necessary. I think something that, like, we are doing RL today is necessary, and there will surely be a few things more, and like, we have a lot of, Very ambitious research programs on …”